1990年12月14日台湾强震的预报判据

本文运用福建省沿海气象要素的异常变化,作台湾省的中、短期地震预报,取得了成功的效果。采用长乐历年各月14时最低气压的距平值,作台湾省未来4～7个月内出现强震的预报依据,并采用热异常进行短临跟踪。当秋冬季节连续4d 长乐、福州、台北的气温均比广州累计高出10℃时,预报未来1～5d 台湾省出现7级强震。又根据近百年来台湾发生的强震,统计其活动季节,得到近20年来7级地震发生的时间,绝大部分在9～12月。     

海洋生态环境监测的指标体系研究

本文在总结国内外各种海洋生态监测方法的基础上,构建生物分布指数、生物暴露指数和生物反应指数,并由此确定生态质量总指教。生态质量总指数可以综合反映特定海洋环境的生物群落特征,典型污染物在生物体内的蓄积特征以及生物体对环境污染的生理生化反应特征,因此可以应用于近岸海洋环境质量的生态监测。     

鲫鱼(Carassius auratus)在微冻保鲜过程中的质量变化

该文研究鲫鱼 ( Carassius auratus)在微冻 ( - 3℃ )保鲜过程中的质量变化规律。以感官评价、细菌总数、T- VBN值、p H值、ATPase活性、K值等作为质量指标。实验结果表明 ,微冻可以明显抑制细菌总数的增长 ,维持较低的 T- VBN和 K值。但是 ,微冻条件下鲫鱼的 ATPase活性下降速度较快     

A Functional Analysis of the Benthic Macrofauna of the São Sebastião Channel (Southeastern Brazil)

Abstract.  The major problem in coastal areas of developing countries is disturbance caused by anthropogenic influence. This disturbance can be quantified by analysing the distribution and composition of marine communities using uni- and multivariate techniques and the biotic index. A study of benthic macrofauna was carried out along the São Sebastião Channel, northern coast of São Paulo State, Brazil, in an area with a submarine outfall, a petroleum terminal and a commercial harbour. Sampling was undertaken seasonally, by means of a van Veen grab (0.1 m²) at 15 oceanographic stations, from November 1993 to August 1994. A total of 392 species were identified (129 Polychaeta, 127 Mollusca, 98 Crustacea, 28 Echinodermata and 10 other phyla). The sedimentary pattern recorded for the São Sebastião Channel is very heterogeneous, influenced mainly by strong wind-driven currents, and differs from nearby shelf areas. The study area could be divided into three regions based on sediment texture and fauna: one region dominated by medium and coarse sand with low values of organic carbon; a second area where pelitic fractions were dominant with high values of organic carbon and nitrogen; and a third region characterised by fine and very fine sand, presenting intermediate organic carbon values. No temporal significant variation in abundance and species composition was found, except in autumn. The use of the 'marine Biotic Coefficient' showed the same ecological trend as the faunal abundance and demonstrated that the central continental region of the channel is affected by human activities.     

烟台市城市土地可持续利用评价

以烟台市为例,从生态环境协调性、经济可行性、社会可接受性等方面,构建了2004年城市土地可持续利用评价的指标体系,采用特尔斐等方法计算了其可持续利用度。结果表明,烟台城市土地利用目前仍处于可持续利用起步阶段。     

城市震害高危害小区的研究和GIS的实现技术

论述了在城市地震灾害中如何考虑诸方面因素来评价城市的灾害轻重分布情况。中建立坑危害小区分析模型，设想将城市划分等面积网格，给每个单元网格赋予灾害指数，以确定城市中受灾较为严重的区域，为求灾指挥提供决策信息。同时，将高危害小区的模型研究结果转化为计算机技术可以实现的GIS模型。该研究结果已应用于泰安市防震减灾示范研究项目中。     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A comparative study on the illite crystallinity and the clay mineral reflectance spectral index for subdividing the very low-grade metamorphic belt along the Lizhou-Hekou geological section in the Youjiang sedimentary basin, Guangxi, China

To examine the application potential of hyperspectral remote sensing techniques in classifying very low-grade metamorphic belts, the composition of clay minerals and the cyrstallinity of illite from mudstones were measured using XRD and VIS-SWIR (400-2500 nm) reflectance spectroscopy. Based on the illite cyrstallinity, Kubler Index (KI), the Early Triassic LuoLou Group and the Middle Triassic lower Baifeng Formation were classified as the lower Epizone with KI△2θ° ranging from 0.22 to 0.25, the upper Baifeng Formation as upper anchizone with KI△2θ°ranging from 0.26 to 0.33, and the Hekou Formation as lower anchizone with KI△2θ° ranging from 0.38 to 0.40. According to a KI△2θ° value of 0.43, it is possible that there may exist a local diagenetic zone in the upper strata. The illite cyrstallinity Kubler index and the metamorphic grade increase from the bottom to the top of the stratigraphic sequence. The metamorphic grade boundaries nearly match the stratigraphic boundaries, indicating a burial metamorphism nature for the stratigraphic sequence. From the bottom to the top of the sequence, the spectral absorption band center of clay minerals from fresh rocks is around 2200 nm. The absorption band centers change towards shorter wavelengths: the Luolou Group being at 2220 nm, the Baifeng Formation at 2217-2213 nm, the lower member of the Hekou Formation at 2214-2206 nm, and the upper member of the Hekou Formation at 2205-2197 nm. The spectral absorption band center of illite shows the same change pattern. These results indicate that very low-grade metamorphic belts can be subdivided using spectral indices of clay minerals, which are measured by using field portable spectroradiometers. However, it may not work well with satellite and airborne sensors.     

运用改进系统建模法对南海气象数据的建模研究

在系统建模理论的基础上,运用改进的动态数据建模方法,对南海气象数据中的温度进行建模并验证了模型的适用性.根据模型推导出格林函数、逆函数和自协方差函数等,并讨论了南海气象数据中温度模型的稳定性、可逆性和合理性.对系统的频率特性和谱函数进行分析讨论,并给出建模过程中的一些图像.根据模型的适用性检验发现,对所研究的气象数据而言,ARMA(4, 3)模型是最合适的,具有平稳可逆性.所有的建模和分析过程在MATLAB上实现.实验结果表明这种建模方案简便易行,能够快速准确地确定系统的合理模型.