Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

Deformation-induced garnet zoning

Compositional zoning patterns in garnet porphyroblasts from kyanite-bearing samples of the Devonian Littleton Formation, north-central Massachusetts, reveal complex patterns of growth that are related to multiple deformation and metamorphic events. Garnet porphyroblasts exhibit asymmetrical and irregular zoning patterns in X_Mn, X_Ca and Fe/(Fe + Mg). Zoning reversals in Mn and Fe/(Fe + Mg) and patch distribution in Ca appear to occur around the boundaries of the textural zones. Also, the compositions of the garnet at the textural boundaries are variable for all traverses. These observations suggest that the garnet zoning was not only modified from diffusion processes, but was also influenced by pre-existing microfabrics through the effects of preferential dissolution and resorption in partial disequilibrium. Relationships between chemical and textural truncations indicate that the zoning patterns of garnet were strongly modified from preferential dissolution and precipitation during the development of successive foliations that occurred in zones of high strain/stress (cleavage seams) and zones of low strain/stress, respectively.     

T106产品中700hPa垂直速度和水汽能量与塔城大降水关系的探讨

对塔城盆地1998－1999年15个大降水个例进行了诊断分析，发现了T106产品700hPa垂直速度和水汽通量与塔城盆地大降水量级呈正相关，并给出了定量预报指标。     

Particle size dependent response of aerosol counters

During an international workshop at the Institute for Experimental Physics of the University of Vienna, Austria, which was coordinated within the Committee on Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols (IAMAS-IUGG), 10 instruments for aerosol number concentration measurement were studied, covering a wide range of methods based on various different measuring principles. In order to investigate the detection limits of the instruments considered with respect to particle size, simultaneous number concentration measurements were performed for monodispersed aerosols with particle sizes ranging from 1.5 to 50 nm diameter and various compositions.The instruments considered show quite different response characteristics, apparently related to the different vapors used in the various counters to enlarge the particles to an optically detectable size. A strong dependence of the 50% cutoff diameter on the particle composition in correlation with the type of vapor used in the specific instrument was found. An enhanced detection efficiency for ultrafine hygroscopic sodium chloride aerosols was observed with water operated systems, an analogous trend was found for n-butanol operated systems with nonhygroscopic silver and tungsten oxide particles.     

Anthropogenic Impacts on Summer Precipitation in Central Arizona,U.S.A.

This article explores the possibility of urbanization‐ and irrigation‐induced increases in summer precipitation totals in central Arizona. Maximum precipitation impacts are hypothesized to occur downwind of the Phoenix area in the Lower Verde basin. Results from statistical tests indicate that summer precipitation totals in the Lower Verde basin are greater than totals in nearby basins. Precipitation totals in the basin also appear to be equivalent to totals at more monsoon‐impacted stations in eastern Arizona. While this research is preliminary, the results do provide encouraging evidence of the existence of anthropogenically enhanced summer precipitation in central Arizona.     

青海平安电磁辐射在中强震前短期前兆异常特征及预报效能研究

分析和整理了青海平安电磁辐射台自1993年7月以来的资料，发现震前平安单台电磁辐射在中强地震临震前有最大脉冲信号，并通过对无震异常，地震异常的分析判断，对其预报效能进行了R值评价。     

Paleoclimate reconstruction based on the timing of speleothem growth and oxygen and carbon isotope composition in a cave located in the rain shadow in Israel

High-resolution ²³⁰Th/²³⁴U ages and δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C compositions of speleothems in Ma’ale Efrayim Cave located to the east of the central mountain ridge of Israel enable us to examine the nature of the rain shadow aridity during glacial and interglacial intervals. Speleothem growth occurred during marine glacial isotopic periods, with no growth during the two last marine isotope interglacial intervals and during the peak of the Last Glacial Maximum. This contrasts with speleothem growth in caves located on the western flank of the central mountain ridge, in the Eastern Mediterranean semiarid climatic zone, which continued throughout the last 240,000 yr. Thus, during glacial periods water reached both sides of the central mountain ridge. A comparison of the present-day rain and cave water isotopic compositions and amounts at the Ma’ale Efrayim Cave site with those on the western flank shows that evaporation and higher temperatures on the eastern flank are major influences on isotopic composition and the lack of rainfall. The δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C profiles of the speleothems deposited between 67,000 and 25,000 yr B.P. match the general trends of the isotopic profiles of Soreq Cave speleothems, suggesting a similar source (eastern Mediterranean Sea) and similar climatic conditions. Thus, during glacial periods the desert boundary effectively migrated further south or east from its present-day location on the eastern flank, whereas interglacial periods appear to have been similar to the present, with the desert boundary at the same position. The decrease in overall temperature and a consequent reduction in the evaporation to precipitation ratios on the eastern flank are viewed as the major factors controlling the decay of the rain shadow effect during glacial periods.