Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper. 相似文献
In 2015, China committed to reducing its emission intensity per unit of gross domestic product by 60–65% from its 2005 rate and to peak its carbon emission by 2030. Problems related to local pollutants and haze are simultaneously worsening in China. This article focuses on the critical topic of co-controlling carbon emission and local air pollutants and evaluates the co-benefit of carbon mitigation in local pollutant reduction by using a partial equilibrium model that links carbon emission and local air pollutants at the technological level. Three conclusions can be drawn from the scenario analysis. First, in the reference scenario, energy consumption and carbon emission continue to increase and air quality is expected to deteriorate in the future. Therefore, current pollutant control measures should be improved. Second, local pollutants will be significantly reduced in the end-of-pipe control scenario, but the reduction will still be inadequate to fulfil the air quality target. Third, emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 in 2030 will be reduced by 78.85%, 77.56%, and 83.32%, respectively, compared with the 2010 levels in the co-control scenario involving the peaking effort in China. Therefore, the air quality targets can also be achieved when the peaking target is fulfilled. The Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of China to peak its emission by 2030 is consistent with its domestic interest to improve local air quality.
POLICY RELEVANCE
China submitted its INDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2015 and has promised to peak its carbon emission by 2030. In recent years, China has also faced severe pressure to address its air pollution problem. Air quality is an important driving force to incentivize more ambitious mitigation measures that can contribute to the simultaneous reduction of carbon emission and air pollutants. Air quality benefit provides a strong justification for the INDC of China and the possibility of early peaking. Moreover, the co-benefit in China can be a reference for other developing countries that are facing the same challenge and can reinforce the initiative of these countries to promote ambitious mitigation actions. 相似文献
The United Nations-led international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) trigger and enhance climate action across the globe. This paper presents a model-based assessment of the Paris Agreement. In particular, we assess the mitigation policies implied by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward in the run-up to COP21 by individual member states and a policy that is likely to limit global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with an economy-wide top-down CGE model to analyse the impact on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. In addition, we illustrate how the gap between the Paris mitigation pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2 °C can be bridged. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that the Paris pledges lead to relatively small losses in GDP, indicating that global action to cut emissions is consistent with robust economic growth. The results for employment indicate a potential transition of jobs from energy-intensive to low-carbon, service oriented sectors. 相似文献