基于AHP＋熵组合的相对发达地区新乡镇建设评价——以苏南三镇为例

面对新农村建设活跃和城市化进程加速，新乡镇建设也初见端倪，选取苏南三镇作为实证地点，构建相对发达地区新乡镇建设评价体系，利用主观赋权的层次分析法（AHP）和客观赋权的熵权法进行组合评价。     

运用GAHP法建立研发人员绩效考评体系

本文运用群体层次分析法(GAHP)结合研发人员自身的特点,建立多级研发人员绩效考评体系,运用Hadamard凸组合集结判断矩阵,解决了考评体系制定过程中受决策者主观偏好影响较大,考评指标难以定量描述的问题。并结合该体系在一家企业的应用,说明了其在研发人员绩效考评方面应用的有效性。     

Terrorism activities and long-term annual management forecasts

We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.     

购买法和权益联合法合并会计报表的特征比较及其选择

1999 年清华同方以股权交换方式吸收合并山东鲁颖电子公司,会计方法上使用的是权益结合法。之后,新潮实业、青岛双星、龙电股份等 9 家上市公司换股吸收合并非上市公司均采用了权益联合法。迄今为止,我国关于合并会计处理方法还没有最终形成企业并购具体会计准则,仅在1996 年财政部发布了《企业合并(征求意见稿)》。在实务中,主要参照1997年财政部颁布的《企业兼并有关会计处理问题暂行规定》、《合并会计报表暂行规定》和《关于执行具体会计准则和〈股份有限公司会计制度〉有关会计问题的解答》,在这些规定中隐含着企业购买法下的合并会计方法问题,一直没有涉及企业股权联合的问题。文章分析了企业合并的两种不同的会计处理方法:购买法和权益结合法引起的经济后果的差异,尤其结合我国现有经济环境,对《企业合并》会计准则制定中涉及的相关问题提出粗浅看法。     

Multiple aspect testing for case-control designs

When testing for the equality of two distributions in a case-control design with treatment effects presumed to act possibly on more than one aspect, different tests may be properly considered for testing for different features of a null hypothesis, leading to the multiple aspect testing issue. Two different aspects are therefore of interest: the location-aspect, based on the comparison of location indexes, and the distributional-aspect, based on the comparison of the empirical distribution functions. A simulation study shows that the combined testing procedure exhibits a good robust overall performance, and an application in biomedical research is also presented.     

Testing equality of variances in the analysis of repeated measurements

The problem of comparing the precisions of two instruments using repeated measurements can be cast as an extension of the Pitman-Morgan problem of testing equality of variances of a bivariate normal distribution. Hawkins (1981) decomposes the hypothesis of equal variances in this model into two subhypotheses for which simple tests exist. For the overall hypothesis he proposes to combine the tests of the subhypotheses using Fisher's method and empirically compares the component tests and their combination with the likelihood ratio test. In this paper an attempt is made to resolve some discrepancies and puzzling conclusions in Hawkins's study and to propose simple modifications.
The new tests are compared to the tests discussed by Hawkins and to each other both in terms of the finite sample power (estimated by Monte Carlo simulation) and theoretically in terms of asymptotic relative efficiencies.     

Seasonal decomposition and forecasting of telecommunication data: A comparative case study

In this paper, forecasting models for the monthly outgoing telephone calls in a University Campus are presented. The data have been separated in the categories of international and national calls as well as calls to mobile phones. The total number of calls has also been analyzed. Three different methods, namely the Seasonal Decomposition, Exponential Smoothing Method and SARIMA Method, have been used. Forecasts with 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each method and compared with the actual data. The outcome of this work can be used to predict future demands for the telecommunications network of the University.     

风险资本规模与最优投资组合

对于任何一个风险投资基金来说,都涉及到投资组合规模问题。由于在投资策略中奉行积极干预的策略,风险投资家耗费了大量的精力和时间。因此,风险资本规模的扩大对风险投资家的投资结构可能会产生影响。这就引致出风险投资最优投资组合的问题,并涉及对风险投资收益率的影响。     

Capitalized intangibles and financial analysts

We examine whether firms that capitalize a higher proportion of their underlying intangible assets have higher analyst following, lower dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts and more accurate earnings forecasts relative to firms that capitalize a lower proportion. Under Australian generally accepted accounting principles, capitalization of intangible assets has become increasingly ‘routine’ since the late 1980s. It is predicted that this experience leads Australian analysts to expect firms with relatively more certain intangible investments to signal this fact by capitalizing intangible assets. Our results are consistent with this. We find that capitalization of intangible assets is associated with higher analyst following and lower absolute earnings forecast error for firms with a stock of underlying intangible assets. Our tests suggest a weaker association between capitalization and lower earnings forecast dispersion. We conclude that there are benefits for analysts, for management to have the option to capitalize intangible assets. These findings suggest that IAS 38 Intangible Assets and AASB 138 Intangible Assets reduce the usefulness of financial statements.