能见度集合预报及后处理技术应用

基于污染物情况、环流系统和时空分布特征分析,利用神经网络对历史数据进行建模,生成了能见度集合预报产品。在2022年冬季的TS评分检验中,预报产品优于欧洲中期数值预报中心模式(ECMWF)的能见度预报产品。利用概率匹配、最优百分位和神经网络三种后处理方法生成后处理产品,这些产品的TS评分优于集合预报产品。预报输入的ECMWF模式2 m湿度与实况的偏差是误差的主要来源。利用集成方法对三种后处理产品进行集成,其TS评分结果在低能见度区间总体接近或略优于原始产品。生成的能见度集合预报后处理最优集成预报产品成功提高了对中期延伸期能见度天气的预测准确性。     

Control strategies and experimental verifications of the electromagnetic mass damper system for structural vibration control

The electromagnetic mass damper （EMD） control system, as an innovative active control system to reduce structural vibration, offers many advantages over traditional active mass driver/damper （AMD） control systems. In this paper, studies of several EMD control strategies and bench-scale shaking table tests of a two-story model structure are described. First, two structural models corresponding to uncontrolled and Zeroed cases are developed, and parameters of these models are validated through sinusoidal sweep tests to provide a basis for establishing an accurate mathematical model for further studies. Then, a simplified control strategy for the EMD system based on the pole assignment control algorithm is proposed. Moreover, ideal pole locations are derived and validated through a series of shaking table tests. Finally, three benchmark earthquake ground motions and sinusoidal sweep waves are imposed onto the structure to investigate the effectiveness and feasibility of using this type of innovative active control system for structural vibration control. In addition, the robustness of the EMD system is examined. The test results show that the EMD system is an effective and robust system for the control of structural vibrations.     

西部大开发中地理信息产业发展刍议

中国西部开发对西部地理信息基础设施建设提出了迫切要求。优先发展在西部大开发中具有关键作用的地理信息系统,积极培育地理信息技术市场,建设一支服务于西部大开发地理信息产业化队伍,尽快制定适应西部大开发的地理信息产业发展规划,协调解决地理信息的标准化,对发展西部地理信息产业、促进西部大开发具有战略意义。     

多积云参数化方案热带气旋路径集合预报试验

利用MM5模式采用5种积云参数化方案选项研究了2004～2006年共8个热带气旋路径的集合预报。结果表明,热带气旋路径预报对积云参数化方案的选取是敏感的,积云参数化方案之间优劣互补,而选择无积云参数化方案选项对热带气旋路径的预报有积极的贡献。采用3种路径集合预报方案研究的结果表明,集合方法对热带气旋路径预报有明显的改善,其中无积云参数化Grell、Betts—Miller和Kain—Fritsch4种积云参数化方案选项组合的集合预报效果最好,平均路径误差最小。     

基于CMIP5多模式集合资料的中国气温和降水预估及概率分析

选用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）提供的30个全球大气-海洋耦合模式（AOGCMs）在典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下气温和降水量的预估结果,采用扰动法,用站点观测资料作为气候背景场替代AOGCM模拟的气候平均,尝试校正气候预估结果的系统性偏差。通过集合方法,用概率的形式给出中国平均气温升高1 ℃,2 ℃和3 ℃以及降水量增加10%,20%和30%概率的空间分布,讨论了中国未来平均气温和降水量可能的变化。结果表明：经过扰动法处理后的气温和降水量预估集合保留了当前气候的局地信息。预估平均气温在中国均有上升,北方地区尤其是青藏高原地区变暖的程度大于南方地区,北方大部分地区平均气温升高的趋势为0.28 ℃/10a。在21世纪初,中国北方地区年平均气温升高1 ℃的可能性超过50%。到了21世纪末期,中国大部分地区平均气温升高2 ℃的可能性超过60%,新疆北部以及青藏高原南部地区气温升高3 ℃的可能性超过50%。预估中国降水量普遍增多,中国北方地区降水量增多的程度要明显大于江淮流域及其以南地区,尤其是西北地区降水量增多非常显著,降水量增多30%的可能性超过70%以上。     

基于BGM的暴雨集合预报初始扰动发展分析

基于增长模繁殖法（BGM）思想,采用AREM（新一代区域η坐标模式）,研究了暴雨过程中,初始随机扰动在繁殖循环中随时间的演变特征和发展机理。结果表明,初始扰动的演变决定于环流背景场的结构和大气中的湿物理过程。背景场不仅影响扰动的演变规律,而且决定了扰动发展的敏感区域。初始扰动随时间演变存在两个敏感区,一是背景场的大风速区,二是降水区附近。对流层高层,大风速区附近扰动得到最优发展;对流层中低层,扰动不仅沿大风速区发展,且与降水区配合较好。初始扰动发展的机理也有两种,一是大气湿物理过程引起的位势不稳定或第二类条件不稳定（CISK）;二是由风切变引起的大气动力不稳定。高层扰动的增长,以干大气的动力不稳定占优,中低层扰动的发展主要是湿物理过程的贡献,初始扰动在模式中的发展与降水的发展是同“源”的,有利于降水发展的环境也有利于初始扰动的发展,从而影响了降水的可预报性。所以利用暴雨预报模式制作集合预报时,BGM仍是可用的方法。     

生态经济战略是江西21世纪发展的必然抉择

根据生态经济战略的核心问题和江西省的实际情况，分析了江西实施生态经济战略的必要性与可行性，指出了江西开展生态经济建设的几个切入点。     

太湖地区农业源污染核算研究进展

太湖地区水体污染严重,控制太湖污染、改善太湖水质,对发挥太湖的综合服务功能,促进全流域经济可持续发展和社会稳定具有重要的战略意义.充分把握和核算太湖地区农业源污染排放量、入河量及其时空分布是落实太湖地区污染物科学减排从而进一步改善太湖水质的基础.本研究总结和概述了太湖地区农业源污染现有的核算方法、产排污参数、控制途径等,结合太湖地区农业源污染构成、排放与布局的复杂情况,提出综合运用各种核算研究方法,充分考虑各污染来源,确定农业源污染的产污量、排污量和入河量,并通过建立分期、分区、细分类型的农业源污染排放、入河参数,为科学确定农业源污染减排指标以及制定减排措施提供依据.     

Seismic attenuation estimation using a complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition-based method

The frequency attenuation gradient method can provide important information for hydrocarbon detection. In this paper, a method using Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD), Hilbert transform and the least-squares curve-fitting is proposed for seismic attenuation estimation as an effective frequency attenuation gradient estimation approach. We first use CEEMD to obtain the different Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs), which have a narrow band and can enhance the physical meaning of instantaneous attributes trace by trace. The time-frequency spectrum, which is computed using a Hilbert transform of each IMF, is represented as a spectrum with a single-peak that has narrow side lobes, which is conducive to frequency attenuation gradient estimation. Second, for each time sample, the frequency-amplitude spectrum of each IMF trace is extracted from the time-frequency spectrum to conduct the attenuation gradient computation. Then, the logarithm operation is performed for each IMF trace. Due to the very narrow bands of some IMFs in some seismic traces, a variable frequency window is adopted along the IMF trace according to the local data characteristics. Finally, the attenuation gradient for each IMF in a seismic trace can be computed using least-squares fitting. A different IMF reflects a seismic trace with a different spatiotemporal scale and can highlight different geologic and stratigraphic information. The correlation weighted average operation is used to highlight some useful details in seismic trace and obtains the attenuation gradient for each seismic trace. Field data examples demonstrate our method and its effectiveness. The proposed method can stably estimate the frequency attenuation gradient.     

Overcoming Trade Impediments: Considering SME Exporters from Nova Scotia

Firms often encounter location-based impediments that hinder them from engaging with international markets. These challenges can be exacerbated for smaller firms, which often have limited resources and exposure to global markets. This article examines successful small and medium-sized exporters from Nova Scotia, a province with decreased export activity in recent years. It explores these firms’ trade-related motivations, their impediments, and the strategies that they have used to address possible location-related problems. Although geographical distance does not appear to be a competitive challenge, other issues emerge, including travel expenditures and the costs of export intelligence gathering. Successful exporters have overcome many potential impediments by using government trade programs, establishing and maintaining face-to-face contacts, and working with international partners.