A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

210m钢筋混凝土烟囱控制爆破拆除数值模拟研究

通过采用LS-DYNA动力学有限元程序,模拟210 m钢筋混凝土烟囱的控制爆破拆除倒塌过程。采用数值模拟方法,不仅可以对控制爆破拆除工程中构筑物倾倒、破坏的重要影响因素进行分析,对有关理论研究结果的正确性和有效性进行验证,还能优化爆破拆除方案、预测实际爆破拆除效果,提高爆破拆除设计与施工的经济性、可靠性和安全性。     

Using chemical process simulation to design industrial ecosystems

Chemical process simulation (CPS) software has been widely used by chemical (process) engineers to design, test, optimise, and integrate process plants. It is expected that industrial ecologists to bring these same problem-solving benefits to the design and operation of industrial ecosystems can use CPS. This paper provides industrial ecology researchers and practitioners with an introduction to CPS and an overview of chemical engineering design principles. The paper highlights recent research showing that CPS can be used to model industrial ecosystems, and discusses the benefits of using CPS to address some of the technical challenges facing companies participating in an industrial ecosystem. CPS can be used to (i) quantitatively evaluate and compare the potential environmental and financial benefits of material and energy linkages; (ii) solve general design, retrofit, or operational problems; (iii) help to identify complex and often counter-intuitive solutions; and (iv) evaluate what-if scenarios. CPS should be a useful addition to the industrial ecology toolbox.     

Oil spill model development and application for emergency response system

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热辐射的破坏准则和池火灾的破坏半径

热辐射破坏是发生在开放气环境中的池火灾的主要破坏机理。本文讨论了热辐射的破坏准则，提出预测池火灾破坏半径的方法，进行了数值模拟计算，分而和时纳了池火灾的基本规律     

双室火灾烟气特性的实验研究

本文在１／２缩尺建筑模型中，取双室－走廊结构，以标准木垛为火源，对建筑火灾的初始阶段进行了实验模拟。着重研究了火灾初期的烟气特性及其变化，包括烟气温度及烟气中ＣＯ＿２气体和炭颗粒浓度。本文目的在于在探索和发展中等尺寸火灾实验模拟手段和方法的同时，定性地确定火源功率对烟气特性的影响，并积累一定的实验数据，为建筑火灾的分析和模化提供实验基础和依据。     

海啸预警系统及我国海啸减灾任务

2004年12月26日印度洋海啸引发了新一轮海啸预警系统的研究。简述了地震海啸预警的原理，分析了海啸数值模拟的一些基本方法，综述了目前世界上多个国家海啸预警系统的建设情况，通过对我国海啸灾害研究现状的分析，明确了我国当前海啸防灾减灾工作的主要任务。     

采用磁流变阻尼器的地震结构模糊控制

以磁流变阻尼器所在层的层间位移和层速度响应为输入变量，以控制电流为输出变量，根据抗震规范和实际经验提出了模糊控制器的合理的设计方法。对一个3层钢筋混凝土结构进行了实例分析，结果表明，模糊控制无论是对于位移响应还是加速度响应都有较好的控制效果。     

有风情况池火灾热辐射下的最小安全距离

防火间距是石油化工企业平面设计中的一个重要参数,开放环境下的火灾热辐射受大气稳定程度的影响.本文从计算流体力学角度出发,应用CFD(Computationsl Fluid Dynamics)软件Fluent,基于SCI爆炸火灾工程试验"Pool Fire A"的大气条件,对"有风情况下,直径为10 m的苯液池火灾"进行数值模拟,得出非绝热条件下,苯燃烧的峰温以及产物组分、池火灾对周围环境热辐射的空间分布.温度最高点在对称面y=0上,最高温度为1 478 K、火焰倾斜角度为32°(与竖直方向的夹角)、火焰高10.2 m.对于锰钢材料、内径为10 m苯储罐,2～3级风力情况下,相邻两储罐间最小安全距离在上风向为20 m,下风向为27 m.最后对模拟结果进行了分析.     

截齿截割煤体变形破坏过程数值模拟研究

采用应变软化的模型,使用连续介质快速拉格朗日分析法(FLAC,FastLagrangianAnaly-sisofContinue)进行数值模拟计算;研究截齿截割作用下煤体变形破坏过程;分析各种工况下不同参数对煤体塑性区、最大位移、最大主应力、最大剪应力的影响。研究表明:截割力与塑性区大小成正比,位移、剪应力、主应力随截割力增大而增大;截深与塑性区大小成反比;截割角度与塑性区面积关系密切,试验用煤体最佳截割角度为5°左右;截割速度增加,塑性区面积减小;通过分析截割动态过程,得到位移矢量图及剪应变等值线图,发现截割过程中煤体的破坏是拉、剪联合作用的结果,以剪破坏为主。