洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Deep chlorophyll maximum distribution in the central Tyrrhenian Sea described by a towed undulating vehicle

The towed undulating vehicle (TUV), named SARAGO, was used for two fine-scale surveys between the Italian and the Sardinian coasts during the Astraea 2 cruise (6-7 and 26-27 September 1995), studying the deep chlorophyll maximum distribution. SARAGO sections identify a sub-surface doming with higher chlorophyll a and primary production concentrations in the upwelling area of a cyclonic gyre region, detected by sea-surface temperature images. In the first section, the cyclone presents a double doming, in density and salinity, with shallower and concentrated patches of chlorophyll a for about 2 miles. Twenty days later, the second section shows that the gyre changes shape and extension, showing a single doming with higher primary production and chlorophyll a concentrations, distributed over a large area of about 40 nautical miles. SARAGO allows analysis of this high-variability phenomenon (cyclonic gyre) and allows concentrated patches (2 nm) to be identified, thus proving the importance of TUVs in the study of mesoscale processes.     

Effects of bifenthrin on Daphnia magna during chronic toxicity test and the recovery test

IntroductionWiththedevelopmentandapplicationofnewpesticide ,insecticidehasgreatlyreducedtheharmofpesttocrops .Bifenthrinisaneffectivepyrethroidinsecticideandacaricideagainstawiderangeofinsectpests ,anditisverypoisonoustomammal,aquatic .Thisinsecticideiswi…     

基于ARCGIS的安徽省地震应急快速反应系统

地震给人类带来了严重的灾害,建立地震应急快速反应系统能够使人们快速响应地震,快速组织有效的救援行动.本文介绍了利用GIS技术计算地震的影响范围,对地震造成的灾害进行评估,同时给出相应的救援建议.     

Differences and similarities of gas and dust explosions: A critical evaluation of the European ‘ATEX’ directives in relation to dusts

Explosive gas mixtures and explosive dust clouds, once existing, exhibit similar ignition and combustion features. However, there are two basic differences between dusts and gases which are of substantially greater significance in design of safety standards than these similarities. Firstly, the physics of generation and up-keeping of dust clouds and premixed gas/vapour clouds are substantially different. This means that in most situations where accidental explosive gas clouds may be produced quite readily, generation of explosive dust clouds would be highly unlikely. Secondly, contrary to premixed gas flame propagation, the propagation of flames in dust/air mixtures is not limited only to the flammable dust concentration range of dynamic clouds. The state of stagnant layers/deposits offers an additional discrete possibility of flame propagation.

The two European Directives 94/9/EC (1994) and 1999/92/EC (1999) primarily address gases/vapours, whereas the particular properties of dusts are not addressed adequately. Some recent IEC and European dust standards resulting from this deficiency are discussed, and the need for revising the two directives accordingly is emphasized.     

大型城市重大危险源监管与应急救援体系的研究

分析大型城市重大危险源的现状,指出重大危险源监管存在的主要问题,提出大型城市重大危险源监管与应急救援体系包括的子系统,即:重大危险源的普查与辨识系统、重大危险源的安全评估系统、重大危险源的管理与控制系统、重大危险源事故的应急救援系统,并对其子系统的概念、构成和内容进行分析和阐述,提出了大型城市重大危险源监管与应急救援的思路、模式和对策。     

Life cycle energy impacts of automotive liftgate inner

This paper compares the life cycle energy use of a cast-aluminum, rear liftgate inner and a conventional, stamped steel liftgate inner used in a minivan. Using the best available aggregate life cycle inventory data and a simple spreadsheet-level analysis, energy comparisons were made at both the single-vehicle and vehicle-fleet levels. Since the product manufacture and use are distributed over long periods of time that, in a fleet, are not simple linear combinations of single product life cycles. Thus, it is all the products in use over a period of time, rather than a single product, that are more appropriate for the life cycle analysis. Using a set of consistent data, analyses also examine sensitivity to the level of analysis and the assumptions to determine the most favorable materials with respect to life cycle energy benefits.As expected, life cycle energy impacts of aluminum are lower than steel at a single-vehicle level – energy savings are determined to be 1.8 GJ/vehicle. Most energy savings occur at the vehicle operation phase due to improved fuel economy from lightweighting. The energy benefits are realized only very close to the average vehicle life of 14 years. With the incremental growth of the vehicle fleet, it takes longer – about 21 years – for aluminum to achieve life cycle equivalence with steel. The number of years aluminum needs to achieve equivalence with steel was found to be quite sensitive to aluminum manufacturing energy and fuel economy. As the steel industry races to compete with other materials for automotive lightweighting, a systems approach, instead of part-to-part comparison, is more appropriate in the determination of viability of aluminum substitution from an energy perspective.     

大学校园安全的技防与人防

论文结合现有文献分析了大学校园存在周边环境复杂、学生安全意识薄弱、未能落实安防制度和安全责任、安全设备运用不足等问题,提出大学校园的安全工作应遵循人防与技防相结合的原则,建议通过安全人防的岗位责任制、培训机制、安保部门和公安机关联动机制、奖励机制,以及技防的安防设备配置全面规划、意外安全事故风险防范、安防设备和技术的自主创新等方式,来改善大学校园的安全水平。     

碳市场发电行业配额分配方法分析及优化建议

碳排放配额的初始分配是碳市场制度体系中的重要组成部分,公平、科学、可操作的配额分配方法与配额管理体系是保证碳市场健康运行的基石.由于排放量高、工艺流程简单且数据基础较好,中国试点碳市场与全国碳市场均优先将发电行业纳入配额管理,出台既有共性又兼具差异的配额分配方法.通过对比发电行业配额分配方法,总结对于机组分类、修正系数、产品计量和配额结转等关键问题的处理方式,发现全国碳市场第一个履约周期配额分配存在发放时间滞后、缺少结转规定、缺乏调控机制和方法尚不完善等问题.建议从方法和管理两方面完善发电行业配额分配制度,包括建立配额总量约束、明确配额结转规定、完善掺烧机组配额核定方法和优化修正系数的选取并适时引入有偿分配制度.     

过电位抛光增材制造双极板流道结构及性能研究

目的 研究过电位抛光对不锈钢异形截面微流道内壁成形性及双极板性能的影响。方法 采用电化学实验、扫描电子显微镜（SEM）、粗糙度测试分别对激光粉末床熔融技术成形异形截面微流道进行测试分析,研究抛光时间对微流道内壁表面形貌、典型缺陷、表面粗糙度及双极板耐腐蚀性的影响。结果 在抛光前10 min,微流道内壁的质量得到有效提升,随着抛光时间的延长,其表面粗糙度达到稳定值,同时典型缺陷也由黏粉、半熔金属颗粒等局部缺陷逐渐变化到球化、挂渣、阶梯效应等大范围缺陷,直至出现点蚀现象。抛光时间在5～15 min内,LPBF成形316L不锈钢表面质量提升,随着抛光时间的增加,其耐腐蚀性下降。结论 采用过电位抛光工艺并选择适当的过电位抛光时间,能有效提升微流道内壁成形质量及双极板耐腐蚀性能。