0～6 h定量降雪(雨)预报技术及其在温哥华冬奥会中的应用

利用中尺度数值预报模式与雷达回波外推技术相结合,围绕SNOWV10项目的科学目标,在自动判识降水相态(雨、雪或雨雪混合物)基础上,利用雷达反演降雪(雨)关系,建立短时(0～6 h)定量降雪(雨)预报方法,并集成到GRAPES-SWIFT临近预报系统,为温哥华冬奥会提供实时场馆预报产品.从2010年2月冬奥会使用情况看,所建立的定量降雪(雨)预报技术,一定程度满足高纬度冬季降雪(雨)临近预报预警的需求,但降水(雨或雪)预报量级偏小,针对场馆的降水预报起止时间节奏偏差较大,各时次预报一致性有待改进.     

模式动力过程与物理过程耦合及其对台风预报的影响研究

中国南海台风模式是基于GRAPES的热带中尺度模式,采用半隐半拉格朗日时间差分方案,借助Helmholtz方程进行隐式求解,然后计算物理过程,并把各物理量反馈到动力预报场,实现动力过程与物理过程耦合。为了探讨耦合方案对预报精度的影响,在原方案的基础上,设计了新的技术方案,主要包括两项技术改进。其一是考虑温度、水汽的物理反馈对气压场影响,将间接导出的气压反馈值返回动力场;其二是在第一项技术改进的基础上,将物理反馈值作为模式Helmholtz方程的右端项参与隐式求解,物理反馈在动力约束条件下实现与动力过程耦合。针对新方案对台风路径预报的影响开展个例和批量试验研究。个例试验研究表明,新方案明显地提高了台风预报水平,特别是提高了移动速度的预报准确率;2013年批量试验结果分析,如文中给出的台风路径预报、等压要素预报准确率对比分析,说明新技术方案整体提高模式预报精度。     

华南燕山晚期构造-岩浆事件与成矿作用——来自广西大瑶山龙头山金矿床的地球化学约束

广西贵港大瑶山成矿带位于华南东南沿海成矿带西南端,对矿带内龙头山金矿黄铁矿化斑岩进行定年的结果为96.1±3.0 Ma,与区域内邻近的平天山侵入岩体(96.2±0.4 Ma)相同.龙头山矿床的Sr同位素组成与其锆石的REE特征表明,成矿作用伴随有大量的流体参与;矿化斑岩与区内侵入相岩石相同的形成时代以及矿化斑岩中锆石C...     

珠江伶仃河口湾及邻近内陆架的纵向环流与物质输运分析

根据实测资料分析了珠江伶仃河口湾与邻近内陆架在不同径流影响下的水体混合空间状态和季节变化特征。主要由河口湾表、中层冲淡水和内陆架底层上溯的高盐补偿流构成了河口湾和内陆架之间的净环流，在高径流量和西南大风的情况下，环流下移向内陆架扩展增强。计算表明，７月纵断面上的净环流输运是盐分纵向净通量的控制因素，输运方向指向上游，而其余季节则以向海的净平流输运为主。悬沙净通量主要受净平流及潮抽吸输运控制，潮抽吸     

中国南方存在印支期的油气藏——Re-Os同位素体系的制约

利用Re-Os同位素方法开展富含有机质的沥青、原油等的研究,是确定油气成藏时间和破坏时间有效的但极富挑战性的新途径,在国内尚无研究实例报道。以我国南方最大的古油藏之一的麻江古油藏中的沥青为主要对象,采用Re-Os同位素方法试图限定油气的成藏时间和破坏时间。研究表明,麻江古油藏的固体沥青Re、Os同位素质量分数分别在41.5×10-6～642×10-6和0.21×10-6～12.15×10-6之间,N(187Re)/N(188Os)比值较高,且变化范围较大,在270.90～4074.99之间,Os同位素组成指示中等放射成因,其N(187Os)/N(188Os)比值在0.3400～3.6557之间变化。所有沥青样品的模式年龄在28～144Ma之间变化,集中在85Ma左右。通过沥青Re-Os同位素研究,结合详细地质资料,认为麻江古油藏的成藏时间为印支期—早燕山期(144Ma之前),而油藏破坏时间为燕山晚期即85Ma左右。     

中国海相碳酸盐岩的储层类型、勘探领域及勘探战略

中国海相碳酸盐岩有效储层成因类型主要包括古风化壳岩溶储层、礁滩储层及层状白云岩储层三大类。陆上中—古生界盆地三类储层均有分布,海上第三系盆地主要发育礁滩储层。针对我国海相油气地质特别是陆上中—古生界油气成藏的复杂性,提出应该加强对勘探及认识程度相对较低的礁滩储层形成的原生岩性-成岩圈闭油气藏的研究与勘探工作。石灰岩古风化壳岩溶储层具有强烈的非均质性,白云岩储层的含油气性比较依赖于有效储盖组合及构造圈闭。鉴于我国海相油气资源潜力巨大、勘探程度较低,故应该加强海相油气资源特别是陆上主要盆地海相油气资源及南海油气资源的研究与勘探开发,尤其要加强层序地层及岩相古地理编图等基础油气地质研究工作。     

INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons’ track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.     

IMPROVED FORECASTING OF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH OROGRAPHIC GRAVITY WAVE DRAG PARAMETERIZATION

The parameterization of gravity wave drag induced by sub-grid scale orography(GWDO), which has been used in the regional model based on the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Tropical Mesoscale Model(GRAPES_TMM), is extended to include the effect of mountain flow blocking drag(MBD). The extended scheme is evaluated against non-GWDO parameterization, including a cold air outbreak over southern China and a monthly verification in February 2012. The experiment results show that the GWDO and MBD parameterization both improves the forecasting of the cold air outbreaks over southern China, as well as alleviations of system bias of GRAPES_TMM.(1) The extended scheme alleviates the strong southerly wind and high surface temperature simulation during the cold air outbreak, especially over northern Guangxi and Guangdong(NGG) province, where local high surface temperature simulation reduces nearly 5 degree.(2) The MBD parameterization improves southerly wind simulations over NGG, as well as surface temperature forecasts improvement over Guangxi, Guizhou province and southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau(YUP), and low level southerly wind simulation improvement over intertidal zone over south China.(3) The formation of MBD is mainly in the mountain area(Wuyi, Daba mountain, east of YUP) and coastal area. The MBD over plateau, which is mainly formed at the west of 105°E, is stronger and thicker than that over Nanling mountain.(4) The improvement of GWDO and MBD parameterization is stable in model physics. MBD parameterization demonstrates more overall improvements in the forecasts than GWDO, and the larger of the model forecast error is, the greater improvements of MBD contribute to. Overall, the extended GWDO scheme successfully improves the simulations of meteorological elements forecasting during cold air outbreaks.     

meso-SAS对流参数化方案的改进及其在9 km分辨率模式中的应用

在分辨率为9 km的华南中尺度模式中引进meso-SAS方案,结合一次季风槽内的华南暖区暴雨天气过程,对原meso-SAS方案中存在的一些问题进行了分析和改进。利用高分辨率模式对积云覆盖比进行诊断,结果表明在9 km网格中积云覆盖比已经不能再忽略不计,因此meso-SAS要比SAS方案更加适用于该模式。原meso-SAS方案中估算的积云覆盖比大致合理,但是分布很不连续,容易导致计算不稳定,通过格点平均垂直速度估算积云覆盖比可以避免出现这个问题。对于受大尺度强迫场影响不是很明显的局地性强降水过程,原meso-SAS方案中使用的“准平衡”闭合假设会引起比较大的降水预报偏差,使用不稳定能量的松弛调整进行闭合可以有效地改善降水预报效果。