气候系统可预报性的全局研究

胞映射方法是对非线性系统进行全局分析的强有力工具。文中基于一个最大简化的地－气耦合模式,引入胞映射全局分析方法,对气候系统的可预报性进行了全局的研究。气候系统存在最大可预报期限,对于超过逐日预报可预报期限后的预报,用胞映射思想证明了平均值的可预报性,并得到了定量的结果。研究表明,耦合机制具有延长可预报期限的作用,观测精度的提高亦可延长可预报期限     

Four-dimensional data assimilation method based on SVD: Theoretical aspect

Summary A new method of four-dimensional data assimilation based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is proposed. In it, a set of atmospheric states is obtained by integrating a numerical weather prediction model and simulated observations are taken and calculated from the model variables. Then the SVD technique is used to create the base vectors from this coupled data set. Finally, the analysis is obtained by projecting actual observation data into a space spanned by the base vectors. Using this approach, the four-dimensional data assimilation becomes a simple linear inverse problem the linearization of the nonlinear forward model is avoided, and the developments of the adjoint and background error covariance matrix are no longer needed. Since the SVD technique is used here, the method is simply called 4DSVD.     

Route planning and cost analysis for travelling through the Arctic Northeast Passage using public 3D GIS

To plan undeveloped optimal routes between Asia and Europe via the Arctic Northeast Passages using a 3D geographic information system (GIS), voyage paths are simulated in a 3D visual form. This ensures that the distances are calculated accurately, and that other voyage data such as water depths, sea ice distribution, and seashore topology are also easily deciphered, giving a more direct and clear demonstration compared to simplified presentations on an Electronic Chart Display & Information System (ECDIS). This article also implements a higher-geometry maze router in ice zone areas to obtain the optimal path in relation to safety and costs. This article compares the optimal Arctic Northeast Passages with traditional routes through the Suez Canal for dynamic analyses of the cost efficiency (including time costs, fuel costs, and other factors) of travel between major ports in Asia and Europe. The average benefit assessment is around 30–45% in a bulk carrier comparison. Thus, a 3D GIS can easily obtain and demonstrate safe navigation routes, providing a very convenient tool for initial planning.     

Composition and quality of coals in the Huaibei Coalfield, Anhui, China

The Huaibei Coalfield, Anhui Province, China, is one of the largest coalfields in China. The coals of Permian age are used mainly for power generation. Coal compositions and 47 trace elements of the No. 10 Coal of the Shanxi Formation, the No. 7, 5, and 4 Coals of the Lower Shihezi Formation, and the No. 3 Coal of the Upper Shihezi Formation from the Huaibei Coalfield were studied. The results indicate that the Huaibei coals have low ash, moisture, and sulfur contents, but high volatile matter and calorific value. The ash yield increases stratigraphically upwards, but the volatile matter and total sulfur contents show a slight decrease from the lower to upper seams. Magmatic intrusion into the No. 5 Coal resulted in high ash, volatile matter, and calorific value, but low moisture value in the coal. Among the studied 47 trace elements, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Th, U, V, and Zn are of environmental concerns. Four elements Hg, Mo, Zn, and Sb are clearly enriched in the coals as compared with the upper continental crust.     

数值天气预报中的两类反问题及一种数值解法──理想试验

针对数值预报中产生误差的两个来源提出了数值预报中存在着两类反问题。并在一维的非线性平流扩散方程上，用共轭方程的解法对提出的两类反问题作出了理想场的数值试验。试验结果表明，这种解反问题的方法非常有效。它利用＂观测资料＂所包含的时间演变的信息确定出了方程的初值或方程中误差订正项的空间分布状况。而且无论对＂观测资料＂的超定还是欠定都能得出较有意义的结果。因而有很大的利用前景。     

An upgraded version of the Eta model

Upgrades implemented over a number of years in an open source version of the Eta model, posted at the CPTEC web site http://etamodel.cptec.inpe.br/, are summarized and examples of benefits are shown. The version originates from the NCEP’s Workstation Eta code posted on the NCEP web site http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta, which differs from the NCEP’s latest operational Eta by having the WRF-NMM nonhydrostatic option included. Most of the upgrades made resulted from attention paid to less than satisfactory performance noted in several Eta results, and identification of the reasons for the problem. Others came from simple expectation that including a feature that is physically justified but is missing in the code should help. The most notable of the upgrades are the introduction of the so-called sloping steps, or discretized shaved cells topography; piecewise-linear finite-volume vertical advection of dynamic variables; vapor and hydrometeor loading in the hydrostatic equation, and changes aimed at refining the convection schemes available in the Eta. Several other modifications have to do with the calculation of exchange coefficients, conservation in the vertical diffusion, and diagnostic calculation of 10-m winds. Several examples showing improved performance resulting from the dynamics changes are given. One includes a case of unrealistically low temperatures in several mountain basins generated by a centered vertical advection difference scheme’s unphysical advection from below ground, removed by its replacement with a finite-volume scheme. Another is that of increased katabatic winds in the Terra Nova Bay Antarctica region. Successful forecast of the severe downslope zonda wind case in the lee of the highest peaks of the Andes is also shown, and some of the recent successful verification results of the use of the upgraded model are pointed out. The code is used at numerous places, and along with setup information it is available for outside users at the CPTEC Eta web site given above.     

Growth of Five Species of Gorgonians (Sub-Class Octocorallia) in the Sedimented Waters of Singapore

Abstract. Annual growth rates of gorgonians in the Indo-Pacific region are reported ror the first tinie. A method of measuring gorgonian growth using periodic photographic monitoring that is sensitive to horizontal growth and changes in growth foci but that does not require tedious underwater measurements is applied. Growth parameters of five species of gorgonians from three Families ( Plexauridae. Melithaeidae . and Subergorgiidae ) were monitored over a period of 18 months using this method. Growth rates ranged from 2.30 cm a^-1 to 7.88 cm. a ^-1 in the highly sedimented waters of Singapore. The maximum number of branches added per year ranged from 1.7 to 14.5.     

Possible Evidence of Long-Term Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere

We have obtained the temporal correlation function, Q(t), from time sequences of Caii K filtergrams and Dopplergrams from Antarctica, Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Q(t) gives the time evolution of the pattern under examination, supergranulation in this case. It has been found that Q(t) shows oscillatory signals of both 5-min and long-term periods. The 5-min oscillations are suppressed by averaging the images over 10 min. An exponential decay curve which represents the lifetime trend of supergranules, is fitted to Q(t) and subtracted out. The Q(t) residuals thus obtained contain the oscillatory component and are then subjected to a periodogram analysis. Significant periodicities in the range of 1.4–10 hours have been noted. The causes of these oscillations are not fully known at present, but the instrumental and atmospheric factors can be ruled out, pointing to solar origin. Various possibilities are discussed. Some of the observed periodicities may be considered as probable candidates for long-term oscillations in the Sun, such as the elusive gravity modes.