Damage Survey of Water Supply Systems and Fragility Curve of PVC Water Pipelines in the Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake

Substantial damage to water supply systems, including water delivery pipelines, water treatment plants, reservoirs, and water storage tanks, was reported after the 1999 Chi–Chi Taiwan Earthquake. This paper first summarizes the damage survey and then presents the results of seismic fragility analysis for underground pipelines. Construction blueprints of the water delivery pipelines and repair work orders of 11 townships and cities in the disastrous area were digitized into a Geographical Information System (GIS) for analysis and assessment. With the aid of the GIS system, we found that PVC pipes made up 86% of water delivery pipelines while steel, cast iron, ductile iron, PE and others took the rest. Therefore, this paper focuses on the fragility analysis of PVC pipes. Three different methods were applied to derive the fragility relations between the PVC water pipes having nominal diameters (approximately inner diameters) greater than or equal to 65 mm and earthquake intensity parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The results were then examined with those of other countries. The discrepancy between our results and the empirical equation used by HAZUS, an earthquake loss estimation software developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not significant.     

Uncertainty propagation of hydrodispersive transfer in an aquifer: an illustration of one-dimensional contaminant transport with slug injection

It is evident that the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient and linear flow velocity dominate solute transport in aquifers. Both of them play important roles characterizing contaminant transport. However, by definition, the parameter of contaminant transport cannot be measured directly. For most problems of contaminant transport, a conceptual model for solute transport generally is established to fit the breakthrough curve obtained from field testing, and then suitable curve matching or the inverse solution of a theoretical model is used to determine the parameter. This study presents a one-dimensional solute transport problem for slug injection. Differential analysis is used to analyze uncertainty propagation, which is described by the variance and mean. The uncertainties of linear velocity and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient are, respectively, characterized by the second-power and fourth-power of the length scale multiplied by a lumped relationship of variance and covariance of system parameters, i.e. the Peclet number and arrival time of maximum concentration. To validate the applicability for evaluating variance propagation in one-dimensional solute transport, two cases using field data are presented to demonstrate how parametric uncertainty can be caught depending on the manner of sampling.     

Customer concerns about uncertainty and willingness to pay in leasing solar power systems

Although solar power systems are considered as one of the most promising renewable energy sources, some uncertain factors as well as the high cost could be barriers which create customer resistance. Leasing instead of purchase, as one type of product service system, could be an option to reduce consumer concern on such issues. This study focuses on consumer concerns about uncertainty and willingness to pay for leasing solar power systems. Conjoint analysis method is used to find part worth utilities and estimate gaps of willingness to pay between attribute levels, including various leasing time lengths. The results show the part worth utilities and relative importance of four major attributes, including leasing time. Among concerns about uncertainties, government subsidy, electricity price, reliability, and rise of new generation solar power systems were found to be significantly related to the additional willingness-to-pay for a shorter leasing time. Cluster analysis is used to identify two groups standing for high and low concerns about uncertainty. People with more concerns tend to pay more for a shorter lease time.     

Effect of viscous,viscoplastic and friction damping on the response of seismic isolated structures

In this paper the efficiency of various dissipative mechanisms to protect structures from pulse‐type and near‐source ground motions is examined. Physically realizable cycloidal pulses are introduced, and their resemblance to recorded near‐source ground motions is illustrated. The study uncovers the coherent component of some near‐source acceleration records, and the shaking potential of these records is examined. It is found that the response of structures with relatively low isolation periods is substantially affected by the high‐frequency fluctuations that override the long duration pulse. Therefore, the concept of seismic isolation is beneficial even for motions that contain a long duration pulse which generates most of the unusually large recorded displacements and velocities. Dissipation forces of the plastic (friction) type are very efficient in reducing displacement demands although occasionally they are responsible for substantial permanent displacements. It is found that the benefits by hysteretic dissipation are nearly indifferent to the level of the yield displacement of the hysteretic mechanism and that they depend primarily on the level of the plastic (friction) force. The study concludes that a combination of relatively low friction and viscous forces is attractive since base displacements are substantially reduced without appreciably increasing base shears and superstructure accelerations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exposure estimation using repeated blood concentration measurements

Physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) modeling has been well established to study the distributions of chemicals in target tissues. In addition, the hierarchical Bayesian statistical approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations has been applied successfully for parameter estimation. The aim was to estimate the constant inhalation exposure concentration (assumed) using a PBTK model based on repeated measurements in venous blood, so that exposures could be estimated. By treating the constant exterior exposure as an unknown parameter of a four-compartment PBTK model, we applied MCMC simulations to estimate the exposure based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The dataset on 16 volunteers exposed to 100 ppm (≅0.538 mg/L) trichloroethylene vapors for 4 h was reanalyzed as an illustration. Cases of time-dependent exposures with a constant mean were also studied via 100 simulated datasets. The posterior geometric mean of 0.571, with narrow 95% posterior confidence interval (CI) (0.506, 0.645), estimated the true trichloroethylene inhalation concentration (0.538 mg/L) with very high precision. Also, the proposed method estimated the overall constant mean of the simulated time-dependent exposure scenarios well with slightly wider 95% CIs. The proposed method justifies the accuracy of exposure estimation from biomonitoring data using PBTK model and MCMC simulations from a real dataset and simulation studies numerically, which provides a starting point for future applications in occupational exposure assessment.     

Thermal conductivity in a vadose zone: A novel spectral solution and application by the implication of significant coherence of thermal condition in the shallow soil water layer

In the context of the heterogeneity in the unsaturated or vadose zone, accurately representing the analytical mechanisms and in-situ water content within the soil layer poses a significant challenge. Particularly in shallow layers, thermal conditions exhibit rapid changes in response to evolving surface temperatures. This study proposes a hypothesis suggesting that the in situ heat mechanism may notably impact the soil water layer. The research introduces an innovative approach to theoretically uncover thermal conditions, including soil temperature, soil temperature gradients, and heat flux, within the shallow Quaternary gravel layer at various depths through spectral analysis of temporal observations. The study presents a stochastic inverse solution to estimate thermal conductivity by leveraging spectral analysis of soil heat flux and temperature gradients. The findings reveal that thermal conditions exhibit the most prominent periodic fluctuations during the diurnal process over a 24-hour cycle. The soil temperature gradients and heat flux measurements at depths of 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, and 1.2 m demonstrate their ability to capture changes in soil temperature and air temperature to a certain extent within the frequency domain. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the intrinsic uncertainty and sensitivity of estimating thermal conductivity in heterogeneous soil environments. The wide variability observed in thermal conductivity values, coupled with their dependence on soil type and environmental conditions, underscores the need for careful consideration of these factors in future studies and modeling efforts. Applying the derived inverse spectral solution allows for determining thermal conductivity throughout the soil-water system across depths ranging from 0.1 to 1.2 m. As a result, this research demonstrates the feasibility and practicality of assessing the thermal conductivity of the soil layer in conjunction with heat flux and temperature gradients through spectral analysis.     

Theory and experimental study for sliding isolators with variable curvature

Because a conventional isolation system with constant isolation frequency is usually a long‐period dynamic system, its seismic response is likely to be amplified in earthquakes with strong long‐period wave components, such as near‐fault ground motions. Seismic isolators with variable mechanical properties may provide a promising solution to alleviate this problem. To this end, in this work sliding isolators with variable curvature (SIVC) were studied experimentally. An SIVC isolator is similar to a friction pendulum system (FPS) isolator, except that its sliding surface has variable curvature rather being spherical. As a result, the SIVC's isolation stiffness that is proportional to the curvature becomes a function of the isolator displacement. By appropriately designing the geometry of the sliding surface, the SIVC is able to possess favorable hysteretic behavior. In order to prove the applicability of the SIVC concept, several prototype SIVC isolators, whose sliding surfaces are defined by a sixth‐order polynomial function, were fabricated and tested in this study. A cyclic element test on the prototype SIVC isolators and a shaking table test on an SIVC isolated steel frame were all conducted. The results of both tests have verified that the prototype SIVC isolators do indeed have the hysteretic property of variable stiffness as prescribed by the derived formulas in this study. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the proposed SIVC is able to effectively reduce the isolator drift in a near‐fault earthquake with strong long‐period components, as compared with that of an FPS system with the same friction coefficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Neodymium,strontium and chromium isotopic studies of the LEW86010 and Angra dos Reis meteorites and the chronology of the angrite parent body

Abstract— Neodymium, strontium, and chromium isotopic studies of the LEW86010 angrite established its absolute age and the formation interval between its crystallization and condensation of Allende CAIs from the solar nebula. Pyroxene and phosphate were found to contain ～98% of its Sm and Nd inventory. A conventional ¹⁴⁷Sm-¹⁴³Nd isochron yielded an age of 4.53 ± 0.04 Ga (2 σ) and ?¹⁴³ _Nd = 0.45 ± 1.1. An ¹⁴⁶Sm-¹⁴²Nd isochron gives initial ¹⁴⁶Sm/¹⁴⁴Sm = 0.0076 ± 0.0009 and ?¹⁴³ _Nd = ?2.5 ± 0.4. The Rb-Sr analyses give initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (I⁸⁷_Sr) = 0.698972 ± 8 and 0.698970 ± 18 for LEW and ADOR, respectively, relative to ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.71025 for NBS987. The difference, ΔI⁸⁷_Sr, between I⁸⁷_Sr for the angrites and literature values for Allende CAIs, corresponds to ～9 Ma of growth in a solar nebula with a CI chondrite value of ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr = 0.91, or ～5 Ma in a nebula with solar photospheric ⁸⁷Rb/⁸⁶Sr = 1.51. Excess ⁵³Cr from extinct ⁵³Mn (t1/2 = 3.7 Ma) in LEW86010 corresponds to initial ⁵³Mn/⁵⁵Mn = 1.44 ± 0.07 × 10^?6 and closure to Cr isotopic homogenization 18.2 ± 1.7 Ma after formation of Allende inclusions, assuming initial ⁵³Mn/⁵⁵Mn = 4.4 ± 1.0 × 10^?5 for the inclusions as previously reported by the Paris group (Birck and Allegre, 1988). The ¹⁴⁶Sm/¹⁴⁴Sm value found for LEW86010 corresponds to solar system initial (¹⁴⁶Sm/¹⁴⁴Sm)_o = 0.0080 ± 0.0009 for crystallization 8 Ma after Allende, the difference between Pb-Pb ages of angrites and Allende, or 0.0086 ± 0.0009 for crystallization 18 Ma after Allende, using the Mn-Cr formation interval. The isotopic data are discussed in the context of a model in which an undifferentiated “chondritic” parent body formed from the solar nebula ～2 Ma after Allende CAIs and subsequently underwent differentiation accompanied by loss of volatiles. Parent bodies with Rb/Sr similar to that of CI, CM, or CO chondrites could satisfy the Cr and Sr isotopic systematics. If the angrite parent body had Rb/Sr similar to that of CV meteorites, it would have to form slightly later, ～2.6 Ma after the CAIs, to satisfy the Sr and Cr isotopic systematics.     

A signature of the donor star in the extra-galactic X-ray binary LMC X−2

Two nights of phase-resolved medium-resolution Very Large Telescope spectroscopy of the extra-galactic low-mass X-ray binary LMC X−2 have revealed a 0.32 ± 0.02 d spectroscopic period in the radial velocity curve of the He  ii λ4686 emission line that we interpret as the orbital period. However, similar to previous findings, this radial velocity curve shows a longer term variation that is most likely due to the presence of a precessing accretion disc in LMC X−2. This is strengthened by He  ii λ4686 Doppler maps that show a bright spot that is moving from night to night. Furthermore, we detect narrow emission lines in the Bowen region of LMC X−2, with a velocity of   K _em= 351 ± 28 km s⁻¹  , that we tentatively interpret as coming from the irradiated side of the donor star. Since K _em must be smaller than K ₂, this leads to the first upper limit on the mass function of LMC X−2 of   f ( M ₁) ≥ 0.86  M_⊙  (95 per cent confidence), and the first constraints on its system parameters.