Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Models of CN and C2 comae for comet Tago-Sato-Kosaka and comet bennett

Based on the CN and C₂ comae isophotes for two comets (1961 IX and 1970 16) given by Rahe et al. and the relevant theory of physical chemistry, we have deduced the distributions of the CN and C₂ modecules in the coma, their scale heights and mean lifetimes. The results favour the viewpoint that HCN is the parent of CN, and that C₂H₂ is the parent of C₂.     

Influence of soft clays on the response spectra for structures in eastern Canada

The 1990 edition of the National Building Code of Canada (Associate Committee of the National Building Code, National Research Council, Ottawa, 1990) makes a clear distinction between eastern and western Canada in terms of seismic acceleration and velocity zones. While it is well established that ground motions can be amplified significantly through loose clay deposits, no results are available that take into consideration the typical high frequency content of ground motions in eastern Canada. This paper develops ground amplification curves for clays having depths between 10 and 70 m excited by typical eastern Canadian ground motions scaled to two different values of peak horizontal accelerations. Simplified free-field spectral design curves, which could be used by structural designers, are proposed. The curves show that maximum spectral accelerations occur for structural periods between 0.2 and 0.5 s. In addition, soil depth does not appear to be an important parameter controlling the response of typical clay deposits in eastern Canada.     

Preliminary observations of oxygen and carbon dioxide of the wintertime Bering Sea marginal ice zone

Wintertime oxygen and pH profiles across the marginal ice zone of the central and southeastern Bering Sea shelf are analyzed and compared with summer data. During the winter, at water depths shallower than 75 m, the water column is homogeneous and near freezing. Between the 75- and 200-m isobaths the structure is essentially two-layered, a cool and fresh upper layer overlying a warmer, more saline bottom layer. The oxygen concentration in the surface mixed layer is higher than the summer values, but the degree of saturation is lower because of the lower temperature in winter. The oxygen degree of saturation in the bottom mixed layer on the shelf in winter are higher than in the surface water in winter and the bottom water in summer.In summer the oxygen and carbon dioxide data show extreme variability governed primarily by biological processes. Winter oxygen and pH data, however, do not scatter as much as the summer data and indicate conservative mixing of several sub-surface water masses. The surface water is undersaturated in both oxygen and carbon dioxide and seems to absorb oxygen, but little carbon dioxide, from the atmosphere.Two stations were occupied in the Aleutian Basin. The homogeneous surface layer has the same oxygen and pH values as in the minimum temperature layer observed in the summer by other investigators at the same location. The result substantiates the hypothesis of early investigators that the summer minimum temperature layer is the remnant local winter water. All winter surface waters sampled are undersaturated with respect to oxygen, suggesting that the input of oxygen through the air-sea exchange does not keep up with the rate of upwelling and cooling, which reduces the degree of oxygen saturation. Surface carbon dioxide is also undersaturated because of cooling. The maximum temperature layer at these two Aleutian Basin stations is warmer, fresher, and contains more oxygen, but less carbon dioxide, than in the summer, suggesting advective input of some nonlocal seawater.     

Progress in Earthquake Science and Technology in China: Review and Prospects (Ⅰ)

In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation.     

A stepwise method for determining the number of component distributions in a mixture

This paper considers the problem of estimatingm, the number of components in a finite mixture of distributions from a parametric family. A step-up procedure using the bootstrap method is proposed. Some properties of the procedure are illustrated with simulation studies. An example of the method, applied to orientation of beach clasts, is given.     

The global joule heat production rate and the AE index

The accuracy of the AE index as a measure of the joule heat production rate is examined for a typical substorm event on 18 March 1978 by estimating the global joule heat production rate, as a function of time, using data obtained from the IMS six meridian chains. In spite of the fact that the AE index had had an initial slow growth which was followed by a rapid growth, the joule heat production rate attained a high level during the slow growth and thus their variations were considerably different from those of the AE index. Therefore, although the AE index is statistically linearly related to the global joule heat production rate, one should be cautious in assuming that details of time variations of the AE index during individual events represent those of the joule heat production rate.