OPTIMIZATION MODELING OF A NEW FACILITY FOR THE CALIFORNIA STATE WATER PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: A non-linear optimization model is applied to the California State Water Project (SWP) and portions of the Central Valley Project (CVP). The model accounts for the major hydrologic, regulatory, and operational features of both projects. The model maximizes long-term SWP yields over a 70-year period, using a quarterly time step. The potential for increased yield associated with a proposed facility improvement is evaluated with the model. The proposed facility is an extension of the Folsom-South Canal, which would allow water to be conveyed from the American River below Folsom Reservoir into New Melones Reservoir on the Stanislaus River or into the California Aqueduct. Model results indicate that extension of the Folsom-South Canal has the potential to increase SWP yields by 13 percent.     

A Comparison of Campfire Impacts and Policies in Seven Protected Areas

Using resource-monitoring data from seven protected areas, the effectiveness of three campfire policies—campfire ban, designated campfires, and unregulated campfires—were assessed based on the number of fire sites and the amount of tree damage. Results indicate that unregulated campfire policies permitted substantial numbers of fire sites and tree damage in campsites, although fire bans did not eliminate or even substantially decrease these problems. A designated campfire policy was effective in decreasing number of fire sites, but little difference was found among policies regarding tree damage. Given the importance of campfires to visitor experiences, campfire prohibitions could be viewed as unnecessarily restrictive based on their limited success in preventing resource damage. Conclusions encourage protected-area managers to consider designated campfire policies and prohibitions on axes, hatchets, and saws to better meet resource protection and visitor experience mandates.     

Green roof stormwater retention: effects of roof surface, slope, and media depth

Urban areas generate considerably more stormwater runoff than natural areas of the same size due to a greater percentage of impervious surfaces that impede water infiltration. Roof surfaces account for a large portion of this impervious cover. Establishing vegetation on rooftops, known as green roofs, is one method of recovering lost green space that can aid in mitigating stormwater runoff. Two studies were performed using several roof platforms to quantify the effects of various treatments on stormwater retention. The first study used three different roof surface treatments to quantify differences in stormwater retention of a standard commercial roof with gravel ballast, an extensive green roof system without vegetation, and a typical extensive green roof with vegetation. Overall, mean percent rainfall retention ranged from 48.7% (gravel) to 82.8% (vegetated). The second study tested the influence of roof slope (2 and 6.5%) and green roof media depth (2.5, 4.0, and 6.0 cm) on stormwater retention. For all combined rain events, platforms at 2% slope with a 4-cm media depth had the greatest mean retention, 87%, although the difference from the other treatments was minimal. The combination of reduced slope and deeper media clearly reduced the total quantity of runoff. For both studies, vegetated green roof systems not only reduced the amount of stormwater runoff, they also extended its duration over a period of time beyond the actual rain event.     

Investing in rangeland restoration in the Arid West,USA: Countering the effects of an invasive weed on the long-term fire cycle

In large areas of the arid western United States, much of which are federally managed, fire frequencies and associated management costs are escalating as flammable, invasive cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) increases its stronghold. Cheatgrass invasion and the subsequent increase in fire frequency result in the loss of native vegetation, less predictable forage availability for livestock and wildlife, and increased costs and risk associated with firefighting. Revegetation following fire on land that is partially invaded by cheatgrass can reduce both the dominance of cheatgrass and its associated high fire rate. Thus restoration can be viewed as an investment in fire-prevention and, if native seed is used, an investment in maintaining native vegetation on the landscape. Here we develop and employ a Markov model of vegetation dynamics for the sagebrush steppe ecosystem to predict vegetation change and management costs under different intensities and types of post-fire revegetation. We use the results to estimate the minimum total cost curves for maintaining native vegetation on the landscape and for preventing cheatgrass dominance. Our results show that across a variety of model parameter possibilities, increased investment in post-fire revegetation reduces long-term fire management costs by more than enough to offset the costs of revegetation. These results support that a policy of intensive post-fire revegetation will reduce long-term management costs for this ecosystem, in addition to providing environmental benefits. This information may help justify costs associated with revegetation and raise the priority of restoration in federal land budgets.     

Visualizing dynamic capabilities as adaptive capacity for municipal water governance

This study seeks to expand empirical research on how municipalities have adapted and innovated (or not) their water systems as a result of climate change. We analyze characteristics of water governance at the municipal scale in Oklahoma, USA. ArcMap 10.3 was used to build a qualitative geographic information system (GIS) based on fieldwork, including interviews and site-observations, to compare dynamic capabilities that lead to innovation in 38 cities in the state. The GIS enables visualization of our digitalized research to understand the interconnections between drivers of innovativeness—the combination of dynamic capabilities and innovation rates—and state of water resource infrastructure in place specific and regional planning contexts. In particular, the GIS takes into consideration income level, the influence of state-level water policy (Water for 2060 Act), water manager certification levels, population, dynamic capabilities, and perceptions of risk and vulnerability to water system change. Digitizing this information provides a diverging perspective on the historical lack of innovation in the public sector, as different socio-cultural, socio-economic, and socio-political contexts occur throughout Oklahoma, a state notorious for its oil centered economy and its climate change deniers. The findings suggest that innovativeness is directly related to dynamic capabilities and indirectly related to population size, income level, and the educational backgrounds of water decision-makers. The visualizations also show that some cities have surplus capacity for adaptation, while others were able to more efficiently turn capacity into water management innovations. Seeing representations of water governance success and failure in communities affords the opportunity to educate citizens and decision-makers to adapt water infrastructures to the effects of climate change, showcasing the utility of digitalization in a quest for sustainable solutions.     

Production, Consumption and the World Summit on Sustainable Development

At the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), world leaders agreed that eliminating unsustainable production and consumption is one of the three overriding objectives of sustainable development. Achieving that objective should have been a major priority for the WSSD Plan of Implementation. Increases in consumption and production over the past decade were largely responsible for the worsening environmental and social trends. Unfortunately, the negotiators of the Plan paid insufficient attention to the lessons from 10 years of discussions about the concepts, the available policies and tools and their effectiveness, the impacts of those policies on developing countries, and the political commitment of countries in an era of globalization. Despite a promising proposal for a new ten-year work programme aimed at bridging the gap implementing the Agenda 21 commitments from Rio, Summit negotiators produced barely more than a muted echo of recommendations from the past which have yet to be taken seriously enough by the world's leaders in a comprehensive intergovernmental strategy. In the ten-year review of progress to achieve sustainable production and consumption (SPAC), governments quickly skipped past the critical work of examining why things are getting worse, avoiding the task of identifying the obstacles (which in some cases were themselves) and in turn avoiding the commitment to time-bound measurable targets. If nothing else, the WSSD demonstrated that a global strategy to achieve SPAC will come not from a UN consensus of world leaders but from a strategic alliance of responsible governments, civil society and others with a vision beyond the next election cycle.