可解释性长短期记忆模型用于预测湖泊总磷浓度变化

对湖泊总磷的变化预测和来源识别对水资源调度和流域生态治理有着重要的意义,然而复杂的生化反应和水动力条件导致的非平稳性给湖泊总磷浓度的准确预测带来极大的困难。为克服这一挑战,本文引入了基于加权回归的季节趋势分解(seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess,STL)技术和夏普利加法(SHapley additive exPlanations,SHAP)结合长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory neural network,LSTM)和门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit,GRU)构建了一个可解释的预测框架,以增强对湖泊总磷浓度演变的预测并提高其可解释性。研究表明:(1)在骆马湖总磷浓度的预测中,该框架拥有较好的预报精度(R²=0.878),优于LSTM和卷积长短期记忆模型(convolutional neural networks and long short term memory network,CNN-LSTM)。当预测时间步长增加到8 h时,该框架有效提高了总磷浓度的预测精度,平均相对误差和均方根误差分别降低了47.1%和33.3%。从预测趋势来看,骆马湖在汛期的总磷平均浓度为0.158 mg/L,相较于非汛期的平均浓度,增加了202.1%。(2)运河来水是骆马湖总磷浓度最重要的影响因素,贡献权重为60.0%,并且不同断面(三湾、三场)的污染源受水动力、气象等因素的影响存在显著的时空差异。本文凸显了神经网络模型在预警水体污染方面的可实施性,并且为提高传统神经网络的学习能力和可解释性的开发与验证提供了重要方向。     

莒县长岭镇整合矿产资源促进矿业经济可持续发展

日照市莒县长岭镇走规模化、集约化经营之路,使该镇一度陷入低谷的砖瓦产业重新焕发生机,一度外流的投资业户重新归来。截至目前,全镇砖瓦厂已发展到30余处,形成年消耗页岩粘土60万m3,年产砖瓦4.2亿片(块)的生产能力。产品畅销省内外,甚至国外,年产值过亿元,仅此一项税收就占全     

黄河中游一次致洪暴雨过程的形成机理

利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料等,对黄河中游2013年7月21-22日的致洪暴雨过程的形成机理进行分析。结果发现:1)地面辐合线的形成和维持是本次过程降水强度大和降水集中的主要原因。中尺度雨团和地面中尺度辐合线相对应,地面中尺度辐合线的形成和冷空气扩散补充相对应。第一次冷空气扩散,促使长武站附近地面中尺度辐合线的形成和维持;第二次冷空气补充,促使北洛河流域、无定河流域的地面中尺度辐合线形成并维持。2)暴雨过程发生前,其上空存在干暖盖的结构特征,是能量积累及位势不稳定层结结构建立的关键;暴雨发生过程中干空气侵入对中尺度对流云团起激发作用。3)暴雨、大暴雨发生过程中水汽的垂直输送明显,暴雨区上空1000-100 h Pa相对湿度均在90%以上。     

雷电临近预警产品评估方法及其软件

为了适应雷电业务发展的需求,对已经投入业务运行试验的雷电临近预警系统的预警效果做出客观评估,中国气象科学研究院雷电物理和防护工程实验室开展了雷电临近预警产品评估方法的研究,并开发了配套的应用软件.评估方法通过雷电预警结果和实际监测结果的对比,得到命中率POD、虚警率FAR和TS评分三项指标,实现对雷电预警产品的评估.评估软件的实际运行表明:该方法不仅能够检验CAMS_LNWS预报雷电活动的能力,还能对预警方法的改进起到一定的指导作用,能够满足雷电业务产品评估的需要.     

Torsional dynamic response of a large‐diameter pipe pile in viscoelastic saturated soil

An analytical solution is developed in this paper to investigate the dynamic response of a large‐diameter end‐bearing pipe pile subjected to torsional loading in viscoelastic saturated soil. The wave propagation in saturated soil and pile are simulated by Biot's two‐phased linear theory and one‐dimensional elastic theory, respectively. The dynamic equilibrium equations of the outer soil, inner soil, and pile are established. The solutions for the outer and inner soils in frequency domain are obtained by Laplace transform technique and the separation of variables method. Then, the dynamic response of the pile is obtained on the basis of the perfect contacts between the pile and the outer soil as well as the inner soil. The results in this paper are compared with that of a solid pile in elastic saturated soil to verify the validity of the solution. Furthermore, the solution in this paper is compared with the classic plane strain solution to verify the solution further and check the accuracy of the plane strain solution. Numerical results are presented to analyze the vibration characteristics and illustrate the effect of the soil parameters and the geometry size of the pile on the complex impedance and velocity admittance of the pile head. Finally, the displacement of the soil at different depth and frequency is analyzed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

喜马拉雅东部三叠系涅如组地球化学和碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学特征及构造意义

喜马拉雅中—新生代地层沉积于印度被动大陆边缘,三叠系沉积物物源分析是冈瓦纳大陆裂解和古地理研究的重要载体.特提斯喜马拉雅东段上三叠统涅如组碎屑岩的物质来源和沉积背景具有较大的争议,本次研究采集隆子县斗玉乡晚三叠世粉砂质板岩进行碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学和全岩主微量元素地球化学分析.涅如组碎屑锆石年龄具有两个明显的峰值:206～224Ma(峰值213 Ma)和462～567Ma(峰值512 Ma),表明涅如组沉积时代为晚三叠世诺利期.涅如组w(SiO2)含量较低(平均值为57.7％),w(Al2O3)值较高(17.2％),轻稀土元素富集,重稀土元素亏损,轻稀土/重稀土元素平均值为8.1.高场强元素中Nb,Ta,Ti亏损,Zr,Hf,Th,U富集;大离子亲石元素中Ba,Sr亏损,Rb和K富集.综合分析认为源区岩石以酸性岩浆岩为主.本次研究认为上三叠统涅如组浊流相沉积形成于裂谷环境,代表新特提斯洋的打开;标志着拉萨板块从冈瓦纳大陆北缘裂解,并开始向北漂移.     

关于地图具有严格法定性的若干浅见

地图是人们出行的可靠向导,学习地理知识的必需工具,是政府领导管理决策的重要依据.随着经济社会的发展,人们对地图的需求越来越旺盛.但地图不能任意编制出版的,它具有严格的法定性.     

Environmental impact of fluidized solidified silt casting on surrounding water bodies

Abstract

With the growing demand for underwater refill engineering, the construction technology of implementing fluidized solidification in underwater pouring has recently received increased attention. However, the environmental impact of underwater casting on surrounding water bodies, especially when the silt is polluted, is still unclear. In this study, a simulated underwater pouring test and a static immersion release test were conducted separately to study the quality of the surrounding water during and after pouring. The results showed that fluidized-solidified silt casting could increase the pH of the surrounding water, even after the pouring had stopped, by approximately 1.0 and the turbidity could reach 200 NTU. No diffusion of Zn and Cu into the surrounding water was observed and while Ni and Cr exhibited slight diffusion, this was at a level well below international water quality standard. During construction, reducing the distance from the seafloor to the bottom of the pouring catheter could reduce the level of pollution. After construction, the use of neutral solidified materials can effectively reduce the pH of the surrounding water and the potential risk of heavy metal dissolution.