1995年苍山5.2级地震前应力场的动态变化

从１９９５年９月２０日山东苍山５．２级地震前源区及其附近不同小区应力场方向的动态变化入手，分析了主应力轴方位、仰角及其矛盾符号比等参量在５．２级地震前的异常变化及其时空演变特点，简析了可能成因，可为研究震前其它各类前兆异常提供背景依据     

统计方法在数值模式中应用的若干新进展

目前,数值模式的准确性不断提高,天气预报和气候预测越来越依靠数值模式。数值模式不仅仅是求解描述大气运动和热力过程的方程组,其中也大量使用了统计方法,统计方法是数值模式的重要组成部分。本文对统计方法在数值模式中应用的最新进展进行了综述。首先,分析了统计方法在数值模式的资料同化、集合预报、次网格尺度物理过程参数化方案、数值产品统计释用、延伸期预报、模式检验等方面的应用。然后阐述了贝叶斯统计在数值模式中应用的新进展。最后,对统计方法在数值模式中应用的未来发展趋势进行了展望。     

北方某废弃矿区地下水污染帷幕注浆应急处置研究

随着我国煤炭资源的枯竭,大量矿山关闭,遗留了广大的地下采空区场地。不少化工企业向废弃矿井内倾倒化学废液等导致了矿区地下水污染事故,威胁地下水水源地的水源安全。针对此类复杂场地条件下污染事故的应急处置案例和经验都非常少,本文以北方某废弃矿区地下水污染注浆帷幕应急处置为例,通过对矿区地质条件的分析、地下空间结构和地下水流场的刻画,构建三维地质模型,以模型为基础设计帷幕注浆工程并实施,研究复杂场地条件下开展帷幕注浆应急处置的重要内容和决定因素,并利用场地地下水样品监测结果,分析研究帷幕内外污染物浓度分布特征及差异,找出地下水运移规律,评价注浆帷幕效果。研究表明：在事故井周边100 m范围实施的帷幕注浆工程,对污染物运移的封堵效果显著,帷幕注浆内外污染物含量差距明显。一期检测结果显示帷幕注浆范围内地下水中二氯甲烷浓度最高1390 μg/L,帷幕范围外最高浓度仅为8. 07 μg/L;二期检测结果为污染物检出浓度大于5 μg/L的区域全部位于帷幕范围内,帷幕范围外均未检出。同时污染物的分布特征指示着地下水沿巷道运移成为最主要的形式,对地下空间结构的精准刻画是决定帷幕注浆工程成效的重要因素。     

Land surface temperature shaped by urban fractions in megacity region

The influence of spatial scales on surface fluxes is an interesting but not fully investigated question. This paper presents an analysis on the influence of spatial scales on surface fluxes in the north Tibetan Plateau based on eddy covariance (EC) and large aperture scintillometer (LAS) data at site Nagqu/BJ, combined with the land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). The analysis shows that sensible heat fluxes calculated with LAS data (H_LAS) agree reasonably well with sensible heat fluxes calculated with EC data (H_EC) in the rain and dry seasons. The difference in their footprints due to the wind direction is an important reason for the differences in H_EC and H_LAS. The H_LAS are statistically more consistent with H_EC when their footprints overlap than when their footprints do not. A detailed analysis on H_EC and H_LAS changes with net radiation and wind direction in rain and dry season indicates that the spatial heterogeneity in net radiation created by clouds contributes greatly to the differences in H_EC and H_LAS in short-term variations. A significant relationship between the difference in footprint-weighted averages of LST and difference in H_EC and H_LAS suggests that the spatial heterogeneity in LST at two spatial scales is a reason for the differences in H_EC and H_LAS and that LST has a positive correlation with the differences in H_EC and H_LAS. A significant relationship between the footprint-weighted averages of NDVI and the ratio of sensible heat fluxes at two spatial scales to net radiation (H/Rn) in the rain season supports the analysis that the spatial heterogeneity in canopy at two spatial scales is another reason for differences in H_EC and H_LAS and that canopy has a negative correlation with (H/Rn). An analysis on the influence of the difference in aerodynamic roughness lengths at two spatial scales on sensible heat fluxes shows that the influence is greater in the dry season and smaller in the rain season because the ratio of z_{0m_LAS} to z_{0m_EC} is big in the dry season and is close to 1.0 in the rain season. This study on spatial scales on surface fluxes in the Tibetan Plateau will be helpful in analyzing and understanding its influence on climate.     

基于WebGIS的海洋预报信息发布系统的设计与实现

海洋预报信息在海洋管理、国防建设和海洋经济发展等方面有着广泛应用,建设能够实时动态地发布海洋预报信息的数据共享平台具有重要的现实意义。本文首先分析了海洋预报数据管理和可视化方面存在的突出问题;然后,针对这些问题,利用GIS技术对海洋预报数据的管理和可视化方法进行研究,分别基于混合结构数据模型管理预报数据,以矢量图、栅格图、统计折线图等方式对预报数据进行可视化;最后,基于WebGIS、ArcGIS API for JavaScript技术进行了海洋预报信息发布系统的开发实践,实现了海洋预报数据的科学管理和动态可视化。     

灰色预测模型在地面沉降中的应用

城市地面沉降已经成为城市发展的严重制约因素,很多城市都在积极采取控制沉降的措施.地面沉降趋势的预测可为地面沉降防控提供数据参考.本文基于天津某地区沉降监测数据,采用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)模型对沉降趋势进行预测.结果 显示,利用灰色模型预测地面沉降具有较高的精度,能够在地面沉降的预测研究中发挥作用.     

Sea Level Prediction in the Yellow Sea From Satellite Altimetry With a Combined Least Squares-Neural Network Approach

Accessible high-quality observation datasets and proper modeling process are critically required to accurately predict sea level rise in coastal areas. This study focuses on developing and validating a combined least squares-neural network approach applicable to the short-term prediction of sea level variations in the Yellow Sea, where the periodic terms and linear trend of sea level change are fitted and extrapolated using the least squares model, while the prediction of the residual terms is performed by several different types of artificial neural networks. The input and output data used are the sea level anomalies (SLA) time series in the Yellow Sea from 1993 to 2016 derived from ERS-1/2, Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1/2, and Envisat satellite altimetry missions. Tests of different neural network architectures and learning algorithms are performed to assess their applicability for predicting the residuals of SLA time series. Different neural networks satisfactorily provide reliable results and the root mean square errors of the predictions from the proposed combined approach are less than 2?cm and correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SLA are up to 0.87. Results prove the reliability of the combined least squares-neural network approach on the short-term prediction of sea level variability close to the coast.     

西南大西洋乌拉圭近海双船拖网捕捞调查

为促进我国海洋渔业"走出去",进一步发展远洋捕捞业,文章调查西南大西洋乌拉圭近海双船拖网捕捞的渔具和渔法等,并提出生产建议。研究结果表明:双船拖网的渔具包括渔船、网具、纲索和属具,网身采用加目和减目编缝的方式缝合而成;渔法包括放网准备、放网、曳网、起网和网具养护等环节;针对渔场、渔期和捕捞对象,应把握捕捞产量、成本和航次的关系,并结合主捕对象的生活习性,合理规划生产。     

上海海洋邮轮旅游的发展策略研究

海洋邮轮旅游产业在现代旅游业的发展中有极大的潜力。近些年来,邮轮旅游产业被誉为"漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业"。随着中国经济的发展,我国邮轮旅游业迅速兴起,使多级邮轮市场开始向中国倾斜,成为带动中国经济发展的新动力。文章首先对比了邮轮旅游业国内外的研究现状和理论分析方法,并介绍了上海海洋邮轮旅游业目前的发展现状;其次用"SWOT"分析法的角度讨论了上海邮轮旅游业面临的机会和威胁;最后针对上海海洋邮轮旅游产业,分别从改善环境、扩大宣传、丰富航线和完善港口设施等方面提出了邮轮旅游业的长期发展方向。     

渔港经济区的金融支持、基础设施建设与产业升级研究

渔港经济区是渔业经济发展的重要载体和依托。由于历史“欠账”较多且金融支持渠道较单一,当前渔港基础设施建设仍很薄弱,难以满足渔港经济区综合发展的需求。为此,文章以“金融支持-基础设施建设-产业升级”的逻辑构想,采用体现投入与产出关系的拓展C-D生产函数,构建反映渔港经济区产业升级进程的六部门模型,实证分析影响渔港经济区产业升级的关键因素之间的效应。研究结果表明：经营性基础设施建设和公益性基础设施建设对产业升级的影响存在差异;金融支持对产业升级的回归结果不显著,金融支持力度薄弱且亟须加强;人力资本效应不显著,无法为区域产业升级提供多元化的劳动力支撑。