Postglacial vegetation and climate dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex,central coastal British Columbia,Canada: palynological evidence from Tiny Lake

A pollen‐based study from Tiny Lake in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex of central coastal British Columbia, Canada, permits an evaluation of the dynamic response of coastal temperate rainforests to postglacial climate change. Open Pinus parklands grew at the site during the early Lateglacial when the climate was cool and dry, but more humid conditions in the later phases of the Lateglacial permitted mesophytic conifers to colonise the region. Early Holocene conditions were warmer than present and a successional mosaic of Tsuga heterophylla and Alnus occurred at Tiny Lake. Climate cooling and moistening at 8740 ± 70 ¹⁴C a BP initiated the development of closed, late successional T. heterophylla–Cupressaceae forests, which achieved modern character after 6860 ± 50 ¹⁴C a BP, when a temperate and very wet climate became established. The onset of early Holocene climate cooling and moistening at Tiny Lake may have preceded change at more southern locations, including within the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex, on a meso‐ to synoptic scale. This would suggest that an early Holocene intensification of the Aleutian Low pressure system was an important influence on forest dynamics in the Seymour‐Belize Inlet Complex and that the study region was located near the southern extent of immediate influence of this semi‐permanent air mass. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps

Major transformation of the global energy system is required for climate change mitigation. However, energy demand patterns and supply systems are themselves subject to climate change impacts. These impacts will variously help and hinder mitigation and adaptation efforts, so it is vital they are well understood and incorporated into models used to study energy system decarbonisation pathways. To assess the current state of understanding of this topic and identify research priorities, this paper critically reviews the literature on the impacts of climate change on the energy supply system, summarising the regional coverage of studies, trends in their results and sources of disagreement. We then examine the ways in which these impacts have been represented in integrated assessment models of the electricity or energy system.Studies tend to agree broadly on impacts for wind, solar and thermal power stations. Projections for impacts on hydropower and bioenergy resources are more varied. Key uncertainties and gaps remain due to the variation between climate projections, modelling limitations and the regional bias of research interests. Priorities for future research include the following: further regional impact studies for developing countries; studies examining impacts of the changing variability of renewable resources, extreme weather events and combined hazards; inclusion of multiple climate feedback mechanisms in IAMs, accounting for adaptation options and climate model uncertainty.     

Incorporating Spatial Dependence in Predictive Vegetation Models: Residual Interpolation Methods*

Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors.     

Examining the effects of climate change, acidic deposition, and copper sulphate poisoning on long-term changes in cladoceran assemblages

We analyzed cladoceran remains in dated sediment cores from four lakes in Nova Scotia, Canada, to assess the potential effects of climate warming, acidic deposition, and a major fish kill caused by copper sulphate poisoning on assemblage composition and Bosmina size structure. In three of the four lakes, we observed a decline in Daphnia in the early 20th century that might be indicative of limnological changes in response to acidic deposition or increased fish predation. The appearance of the softwater zooplankter Holopedium glacialis in Hirtle Lake ~1995 might be linked to declining aqueous [Ca], a consequence of acidic deposition. No shifts in subfossil Cladocera were identified in this study that could be linked to climate warming. The application of copper sulphate as a fish poison to Trefry Lake (the lake was later re-stocked with trout fry) in 1938 resulted in dramatic and persistent changes in the cladoceran assemblage, where littoral Cladocera declined in relative abundance and small, pelagic Bosmina increased. In addition, we observed a reduction in the mean body size of Bosmina in post-1938 sediments, suggesting that planktivorous fish abundance increased and/or predatory copepods and other invertebrate predators decreased. No recovery of Cladocera to pre-disturbance conditions was observed. Overall, our data suggest that acidic deposition and calcium decline may have had a modest impact on the cladoceran communities in these lakes, but the effects of copper sulphate poisoning on the food web in Trefry Lake were widespread, and still persist over 70?years following this intervention.     

Seasonal variation in lysosomal destabilization in oysters,Crassostrea virginica

Lysosomal destabilization assays have been used as valuable biomarkers of pollutant exposures in a variety of bivalve and fish species. The responses of oysters, Crassostrea virginica, deployed at and native to various reference and degraded sites were evaluated for lysosomal destabilization during both summer and winter seasons. In both native and deployed oysters, lysosomal destabilization rates tended to be higher during the winter at both reference and polluted sites. There are at least two hypothetical explanations. Greater lysosomal destabilization rates may be related to physiological changes associated with mobilization of nutrient reserves during the winter and gametogenesis. However, lysosomal destabilization in deployed oysters was correlated with tissue metal concentrations. These data also support a second hypothesis that seasonal differences in physico-chemical factors (such as reduced levels of acid volatile sulfides) may increase the bioavailability of metals during the winter so that adverse effects are more pronounced.     

Scattering properties of planetary regolith analogs

The physics of scattering of electromagnetic waves by media in which the particles are in contact, such as planetary regoliths, has been thought to be relatively well understood when the particles are larger than the wavelength. However, this is not true when the particles are comparable with or smaller than the wavelength. We have measured the scattering parameters of planetary regolith analogs consisting of suites of well-sorted abrasives whose particles ranged from larger to smaller than the wavelength. We measured the variation of reflectance as the phase angle varied from 0.05° to 140°. The following parameters of the media were then deduced: the single scattering albedo, single scattering phase function, transport mean free path, and scattering, absorption, and extinction coefficients. A scattering model based on the equation of radiative transfer was empirically able to describe quantitatively the variation of intensity with angle for each sample. Thus, such models can be used to characterize scattering from regoliths even when the particles are smaller than the wavelength. The scattering parameters were remarkably insensitive to particle size. These results are contrary to theoretical predictions, but are consistent with earlier measurements of alumina abrasives that were restricted to small phase angles. They imply that a basic assumption made by virtually all regolith scattering models, that the regolith particles are the fundamental scattering units of the medium, is incorrect. Our understanding of scattering by regoliths appears to be incomplete, even when the particles are larger than the wavelength.     

Space weathering of small Koronis family members

The space weathering process and its implications for the relationships between S- and Q-type asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites is an often debated topic in asteroid science. Q-type asteroids have been shown to display the best spectral match to ordinary chondrites (McFadden, L.A., Gaffey, M.J., McCord, T.B. [1985]. Science 229, 160–163). While the Q-types and ordinary chondrites share some spectral features with S-type asteroids, the S-types have significantly redder spectral slopes than the Q-types in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. This reddening of spectral slope is attributed to the effects of space weathering on the observed surface composition. The analysis by Binzel et al. (Binzel, R.P., Rivkin, A.S., Stuart, J.S., Harris, A.W., Bus, S.J., Burbine, T.H. [2004]. Icarus 170, 259–294) provided a missing link between the Q- and S-type bodies in near-Earth space by showing a reddening of spectral slope in objects from 0.1 to 5 km that corresponded to a transition from Q-type to S-type asteroid spectra, implying that size, and therefore surface age, is related to the relationship between S- and Q-types. The existence of Q-type asteroids in the main-belt was not confirmed until Mothé-Diniz and Nesvorny (Mothé-Diniz, T., Nesvorny, D. [2008]. Astron. Astrophys. 486, L9–L12) found them in young S-type clusters. The young age of these families suggest that the unweathered surface could date to the formation of the family. This leads to the question of whether older S-type main-belt families can contain Q-type objects and display evidence of a transition from Q- to S-type. To answer this question we have carried out a photometric survey of the Koronis family using the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the effects of the space weathering process on potentially ordinary chondrite-like bodies within a population of identical initial conditions. We find a trend in spectral slope for objects 1–5 km that shows the transition from Q- to S-type in the main-belt. This data set will prove crucial to our understanding of the space weathering process and its relevant timescales.     

Interannual variability in vertical export in the Ross Sea: Magnitude, composition, and environmental correlates

The vertical flux of particulate matter from the surface of the Ross Sea, Antarctica, has been suggested as being large, with substantial seasonal and spatial variations. We conducted a study in which vertical flux was quantified using sediment traps deployed at 200 m and compared to estimates calculated from one-dimensional budgets of nutrients (nitrogen and silicon). Estimates of flux were collected at two locations in the southern Ross Sea from late December to early February during four years: 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006. Phytoplankton biomass and vertical flux varied substantially seasonally and spatially between the two sites, and among years. The greatest flux was observed in 2001-2002, with a short-term maximum organic carbon flux of 3.13 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹, and the summer mean organic carbon flux equal to 0.93 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹. In contrast, the mean carbon flux at the same site in 2003-2004 was over an order of magnitude less, averaging 0.19 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹, despite the fact that productivity in that year was substantially greater. In 2005-206 the contribution of fecal pellets to flux was smallest among all years, and the pellet contribution ranged from <1 to more than 50% of organic flux. As the moorings also had surface layer fluorometers, the relationship between surface biomass and sediment trap flux was compared. Temporal lags between surface fluorescence and flux at 200 m maxima in 2003-2004 and 2004-2005 ranged from two to six days; however, in 2005-2006 the temporal offset between biomass and flux was much longer, ranging from 11 to 27 days, suggesting that fecal pellet production appeared to increase the coupling between flux and surface production. Estimates of export from the upper 200 m based on one-dimensional nutrient budgets were greater than those recorded by the sediment traps. Nutrient budgets also indicated that siliceous production averaged ca. 40% of the total annual production. The variations observed in the flux of biogenic matter to depth in the Ross Sea are large, appear to reflect different forcing among years, and at present are not adequately understood. However, such variability needs to be both understood and represented in biogeochemical models to accurately assess and predict the effects of climate change on biogeochemical cycles.