全文获取类型
收费全文 | 146篇 |
免费 | 11篇 |
国内免费 | 10篇 |
学科分类
地球科学 | 167篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 2篇 |
2022年 | 6篇 |
2021年 | 3篇 |
2019年 | 4篇 |
2018年 | 6篇 |
2017年 | 8篇 |
2016年 | 11篇 |
2015年 | 5篇 |
2014年 | 16篇 |
2013年 | 4篇 |
2012年 | 12篇 |
2011年 | 6篇 |
2010年 | 14篇 |
2009年 | 10篇 |
2008年 | 12篇 |
2007年 | 7篇 |
2006年 | 6篇 |
2005年 | 9篇 |
2004年 | 2篇 |
2003年 | 10篇 |
2002年 | 2篇 |
2001年 | 3篇 |
1999年 | 2篇 |
1998年 | 1篇 |
1997年 | 1篇 |
1996年 | 1篇 |
1993年 | 1篇 |
1989年 | 1篇 |
1984年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有167条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Filippo Giorgi Erika Coppola Francesca Raffaele Gulilat Tefera Diro Ramon Fuentes-Franco Graziano Giuliani Ashu Mamgain Marta Pereira Llopart Laura Mariotti Csaba Torma 《Climatic change》2014,125(1):39-51
We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies. 相似文献
2.
Gianluca Loffredo Filippo Frontera Damiano Pellicciotta Alessandro Pisa Vito Carassiti Stefano Chiozzi Federico Evangelisti Luca Landi Michele Melchiorri Stefano Squerzanti 《Experimental Astronomy》2005,20(1-3):413-420
We will report on the current configuration of the X-ray facility of the University of Ferrara recently used to perform reflectivity tests of mosaic crystals and to calibrate the experiment JEM–X aboard Integral. The facility is now located in the technological campus of the University of Ferrara in a new building (named LARIX laboratory= ̳LARge ̳Italian ̳X-ray facility) that includes a tunnel 100 m long with, on the sides, two large experimental rooms. The facility is being improved for determining the optical axis of mosaic crystals in Laue configuration, for calibrating Laue lenses and hard X-ray mirror prototypes. 相似文献
3.
Filippo Bandini Michael Butts Torsten Vammen Jacobsen Peter Bauer‐Gottwein 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4371-4383
Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only. 相似文献
4.
5.
使用RegCM3区域气候模式嵌套ERA40再分析资料,对东亚地区进行了15 a(1987-2001年)时间长度的数值积分试验。结果表明:模式可较好地模拟中国地面气温的分布和季节变化,但存在系统性的冷偏差;对降水的变化模拟也较好,但其地理分布模拟存在一定偏差。 相似文献
6.
Xavier Rodó Mercedes Pascual Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Alexander Gershunov Dáithí A. Stone Filippo Giorgi Peter J. Hudson James Kinter Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias Nils Ch. Stenseth David Alonso Javier García-Serrano Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640
The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed. 相似文献
7.
8.
Filippo Santucci de Magistris Anna d’Onofrio Augusto Penna Rodolfo Puglia Francesco Silvestri 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2005-2035
The prediction of the variability of the seismic ground motion in a given built-up area is considered an effective tool to plan appropriate urban development, to undertake actions on seismic risk mitigation and to understand the damage pattern caused by a strong-motion event. The procedures for studying the seismic response and the seismic microzonation of an urban area are well established; nevertheless, some controversial points still exists and are discussed here. In this paper, the selection of a reference input motion, the construction of a subsoil model and the seismic response analysis procedures are discussed in detail, based on the authors’ experience in two Italian case histories: the seismic microzonation of the city of Benevento, which was a predictive study, and the simulation of seismic response and damage distribution in the village of San Giuliano di Puglia, which was a retrospective analysis. 相似文献
9.
温室效应对青藏高原及青藏铁路沿线气候影响的数值模拟 总被引:13,自引:12,他引:13
在一个全球模式中嵌套了RegCM2区域气候模式,进行了CO2加倍对中国区域气候影响的数值试验,对青藏高原及青藏铁路沿线地区进行了重点分析。结果表明,在CO2加倍的情况下,这里的气温将明显升高,升高值一般在2.6~2.8℃以上,高于全国平均值。同时降水在青藏高原大部分地区也将明显增加;其中青藏铁路沿线的增加率一般在25%以上,远高于全国平均值水平。温室效应同时会使得青藏铁路沿线的日平均最高气温升高。 相似文献
10.
Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2 下载免费PDF全文
ZHANG Dongfeng GAO Xuejie SHI Ying GIORGI Filippo DONG Wenjie 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(2):215-224
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3
(RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations. 相似文献