CA-FCM方案与其它几种人工增雨评估方案的比较

对河南省12次飞机增雨作业,分别采用作业区域趋势对比双比分析评估方案、区域趋势相关回归分析方案、区域趋势协变量多元回归分析方案、浮动对比区历史回归分析方案(FCM)、以降水量为协变量的CA-FCM(Cluster-Analysis-based Floating Contro historical regression Method)方案和以降水量和整层大气可降水量为协变量的CA-FCM方案进行效果评估,均得到大于15%的相对增雨量.对结果比较分析表明:协变量由降水量和整层大气降水量两个组成的CA-FCM方案,由于采用了聚类分析提高了对比区和影响区相关系数和引入了整层大气可降水量作为协变量提高了作业区自然降水量估计值的准确性,从而比其它评估方案效果更好.     

Karst cave tourism system in Zhejiang Province based on resource regional analysis

Karst cave tourism plays an important role in the overall tourism of Zhejiang Province,China.In analyzing the current status of karst cave tourism resources,it is crucial to develop a scientific system for optimizing resource exploitation and tourism development in the future.This study conducted an analysis of resource characteristics and regional structure in Zhejiang Province.Nearest neighbor index(NNI) method and accessibility index method were used for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of scale,strength,combination,and accessibility of karst cave tourism resources.Results indicated that karst cave tourism resources in Zhejiang Province have a significant regional influence,and that resource quality and exploitation are diverse in different regions.Among the regions,Jinhua had the highest exploitation proportion of over 60% and the lowest NNI value of 0.098.Furthermore,regional analysis inferred that different karst caves demonstrate diversity in accessibility to tourism markets,among which the Lingshan Cave,Fengshui Cave,and Xianqiao Cave reveal the highest accessibility index of 2.41.Finally,we put forward a karst cave tourism system in Zhejiang Province based on the Growth Pole Theory and set up an overall scheme for karst cave tourism development.From a regional perspective analysis,the study refined the methods for regional resource research and provided a strategic proposal for karst cave tourism in Zhejiang Province.     

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秋季东海黑潮锋面涡旋的特点

本文根据１９８８年１０月２０～２４日“向阳红０９号”调查船在奄美大岛以西海区进行调查时，在陆架斜坡上的表均温层的底部，即５０ｍ附近的深层上，出现一个黑潮锋面涡。不论在平面上形成的特点，还是在断面上水系配置的形式，它与春季黑潮锋面涡的特征极为相似。说明秋季东海同样存在陆架水与黑潮水在水平方向交换与混合。     

A direction-dependent shear strength criterion for rock joints with two new roughness parameters

The surface morphology of a rock joint is closely related to its mechanical properties. To reasonably characterize a rock surface, two new roughness parameters were proposed in this paper. One is related to the average slope angle of asperities that contribute to the shear strength, and the other reflects the frictional behavior of asperities that is defined as the maximum possible contact area in the shear direction. Taking the standard joint roughness coefficient profiles as example, these two roughness parameters can be applied to describe the directional characteristics of shear strength. Based on their relationships with initial dilation angles, the proposed roughness parameters were incorporated into a peak shear strength criterion. It is shown that the predicted peak shear strength is consistent with experimental data, and there is a power–law relationship. The application range of new roughness parameters was determined, which may facilitate a measurement process.     

Predicting human mobility with activity changes

Human mobility patterns can provide valuable information in understanding the impact of human behavioral regularities in urban systems, usually with a specific focus on traffic prediction, public health or urban planning. While existing studies on human movement have placed huge emphasis on spatial location to predict where people go next, the time dimension component is usually being treated with oversimplification or even being neglected. Time dimension is crucial to understanding and detecting human activity changes, which play a negative role in prediction and thus may affect the predictive accuracy. This study aims to predict human movement from a spatio-temporal perspective by taking into account the impact of activity changes. We analyze and define changes of human activity and propose an algorithm to detect such changes, based on which a Markov chain model is used to predict human movement. The Microsoft GeoLife dataset is used to test our methodology, and the data of two selected users is used to evaluate the performance of the prediction. We compare the predictive accuracy (R²) derived from the data with and without implementing the activity change detection. The results show that the R² is improved from 0.295 to 0.762 for the user with obvious activity changes and from 0.965 to 0.971 for the user without obvious activity changes. The method proposed by this study improves the accuracy in analyzing and predicting human movement and lays the foundation for related urban studies.     

中国城市扩展对气温观测的影响及其高估程度

由于中国城市扩展导致部分气象站点被动进入城市内部,从而造成对区域气温的高估.本文利用遥感多期影像对中国700多个气象站点各历史时期的下垫面进行判别,得到"进城"站点及其进城时间.通过比较"进城"站点的观测数据和背景气温,计算出70年代以来"进城"气象站点上的平均热岛效应强度,并对热岛效应强度的季节性筹异进行了分析,得出70年代以来秋冬季节的热岛强度高于春季和夏季的结沦.通过比较真实气温和背景气温的空间数据,识别出了气温高估区域,得出中国东部地区的气温高估略高于中部地区,东部地区和中部地区的气温高估均远高于西部地区的结论.通过计算真实气温和背景气温序列的年平均气温变化趋势,得出近40年来全国的增温值约为1.58℃,其中凶城市扩展带来的增温贡献约为0.01℃,在气温高估的核心区域的贡献约为0.09℃.     

Temperature trends in the skin/surface, mid-troposphere and low stratosphere near Korea from satellite and ground measurements

Various types of satellite (AIRS/AMSU, MODIS) and ground measurements are used to analyze temperature trends in the four vertical layers (skin/surface, mid-troposphere, and low stratosphere) around the Korean Peninsula (123–132°E, 33–44°N) during the period from September 2002 to August 2010. The ground-based observations include 72 Surface Meteorological Stations (SMSs), 6 radiosonde stations (RAOBs), 457 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) over the land, and 5 buoy stations over the ocean. A strong warming (0.052 K yr^?1) at the surface, and a weak warming (0.004～0.010 K yr^?1) in the mid-troposphere and low stratosphere have been found from satellite data, leading to an unstable atmospheric layer. The AIRS/AMSU warming trend over the ocean surface around the Korean Peninsula is about 2.5 times greater than that over the land surface. The ground measurements from both SMS and AWS over the land surface of South Korea also show a warming of 0.043～0.082 K yr^?1, consistent with the satellite observations. The correlation average (r = 0.80) between MODIS skin temperature and ground measurement is significant. The correlations between AMSU and RAOB are very high (0.91～0.95) in the anomaly time series, calculated from the spatial averages of monthly mean temperature values. However, the warming found in the AMSU data is stronger than that from the RAOB at the surface. The opposite feature is present above the mid-troposphere, indicating that there is a systematic difference. Warming phenomena (0.012～0.078 K yr^?1) are observed from all three data sets (SMS, AWS, MODIS), which have been corroborated by the coincident measurements at five ground stations. However, it should also be noted that the observed trends are subject to large uncertainty as the corresponding 95% confidence intervals tend to be larger than the observed signals due to large thermal variability and the relatively short periods of the satellitebased temperature records. The EOF analysis of monthly mean temperature anomalies indicates that the tropospheric temperature variability near Korea is primarily linked to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and secondarily to ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). However, the low stratospheric temperature variability is mainly associated with Southern Oscillation and then additionally with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Uncertainties from the different spatial resolutions between satellite data are discussed in the trends.     

气候变化背景下江苏河蟹养殖高温热害风险评估

利用江苏省及周边共85个气象站观测资料,筛选出夏季高温强度、持续时间、降水量和日照时数作为高温热害的关键气象因子,构建高温热害综合指数。在此基础上,利用高温热害发生频率和河蟹因灾死亡率加权建立风险评估模型,将河蟹高温热害风险划分为三个等级,结合地形和土壤的适宜性,最终得出江苏河蟹高温热害风险区划图。结果发现,河蟹高温热害的高风险区位于以高淳为中心的江苏西南部,沿淮和淮北东部沿海地区风险值最低,淮北西部—沿江东部的风险值介于二者之间。年代际高风险区面积有逐渐扩大趋势,1991年以来已外扩到沿江和苏南大部分地区,达到历史极值。河蟹高温热害风险增大,需加强防范。     

Mineralogy and geochemistry of granitoids from Kinnaur region,Himachal Higher Himalaya,India: Implication on the nature of felsic magmatism in the collision tectonics

Felsic magmatism in the southern part of Himachal Higher Himalaya is constituted by Neoproterozoic granite gneiss (GGn), Early Palaeozoic granitoids (EPG) and Tertiary tourmaline-bearing leucogranite (TLg). Magnetic susceptibility values (<3 ×10^?3 SI), molar Al₂ O ₃/(CaO + Na₂ O + K ₂O) (≥1.1), mineral assemblage (bt–ms–pl–kf–qtz ± tur ± ap), and the presence of normative corundum relate these granitoids to peraluminous S-type, ilmenite series (reduced type) granites formed in a syncollisional tectonic setting. Plagioclase from GGn (An₁₀–An₃₁) and EPG (An₁₅–An₃₃) represents oligoclase to andesine and TLg (An₂–An₁₅) represents albite to oligoclase, whereas compositional ranges of K-feldspar are more-or-less similar (Or₈₈ to Or₉₅ in GGn, Or₈₆ to Or₉₇ in EPG and Or₈₇ to Or₉₄ in TLg). Biotites in GGn (Mg/Mg + Fe^t= 0.34–0.45), EPG (Mg/Mg + Fe^t= 0.27–0.47), and TLg (Mg/Mg + Fe^t= 0.25–0.30) are ferribiotites enriched in siderophyllite, which stabilised between FMQ and HM buffers and are characterised by dominant 3Fe\(\rightleftharpoons \)2Al, 3Mg\(\rightleftharpoons \)2Al substitutions typical of peraluminous (S-type), reducing felsic melts. Muscovite in GGn (Mg/Mg + Fe^t=0.58–0.66), EPG (Mg/Mg + Fe^t=0.31?0.59), and TLg (Mg/Mg + Fe^t=0.29–0.42) represent celadonite and paragonite solid solutions, and the tourmaline from EPG and TLg belongs to the schorl-elbaite series, which are characteristics of peraluminous, Li-poor, biotite-tourmaline granites. Geochemical features reveal that the GGn and EPG precursor melts were most likely derived from melting of biotite-rich metapelite and metagraywacke sources, whereas TLg melt appears to have formed from biotite-muscovite rich metapelite and metagraywacke sources. Major and trace elements modelling suggest that the GGn, EPG and TLg parental melts have experienced low degrees (～13, ～17 and ～13%, respectively) of kf–pl–bt fractionation, respectively, subsequent to partial melting. The GGn and EPG melts are the results of a pre-Himalayan, syn-collisional Pan-African felsic magmatic event, whereas the TLg is a magmatic product of Himalayan collision tectonics.