Climate change impacts on invasive potential of pink hibiscus mealybug, Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green), in Chile

Maconellicoccus hirsutus (Green) (Hemiptera:Pseudoccidae) is an important pest in many countries being responsible for considerable economic loses. Although it is not currently present in Chile, the chance that it could be accidentally introduced rises with the list of infested countries increasing over the last years. In addition, climate change projections indicate that a larger region would fit as potential habitat for this pest, allowing it to persist over time and colonize a larger proportion of the Chilean territory. In this study the geographic distribution and the number of generations this mealybug would develop in Chile were determined, under current temperatures and under two projected climatic scenarios. Cumulative degree days were calculated for current and future scenarios using a lower temperature threshold of 14.5 °C, with 624.5 degree-days as the thermal requirement for the species to complete one generation. The results show that under current climate conditions M. hirsutus could develop up to three generations in the north of the country (i.e. 18° South) and one generation in the region near 37° South. Under future scenarios’ conditions the pest could develop up to five generations in the north, and one generation around the 42° South. Present climate conditions in Chile would allow the establishment of the pink hibiscus mealybug, if the pest enters the country. Climate change conditions would allow the potentially invaded area to expand south, and would promote the development of more generations per year of the mealybug in the studied territory.     

The economics of decarbonizing the energy system—results and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison

This paper synthesizes the results from the model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models ReMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. A number of robust findings emerge. If the international community takes immediate action to mitigate climate change, the costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations at 450?ppm (roughly 530?C550?ppm-e) discounted at 3% are estimated to be 1.4% or lower of global consumption over the twenty-first century. Second best settings with either a delay in climate policy or restrictions to the deployment of low-carbon technologies can result in substantial increases of mitigation costs. A delay of global climate policy until 2030 would render the 450?ppm target unachievable. Renewables and CCS are found to be the most critical mitigation technologies, and all models project a rapid switch of investments away from freely emitting energy conversion technologies towards renewables, CCS and nuclear. Concerning end use sectors, the models consistently show an almost full scale decarbonization of the electricity sector by the middle of the twenty-first century, while the decarbonization of non-electric energy demand, in particular in the transport sector remains incomplete in all mitigation scenarios. The results suggest that assumptions about low-carbon alternatives for non-electric energy demand are of key importance for the costs and achievability of very low stabilization scenarios.     

An atlas of ground UV spectra of selected stars

We present a spectral atlas of 4 B and A stars containing spectra in a poorly studied spectral range of 305–452 nm. The atlas is based on high resolution (R=60 000) spectra obtained with the 6 meter telescope (SAO, Russia) combined with the NES-spectrograph. The procedure of spectral lines identification and compilation of the atlas is discussed in detail. Using the spectral data we thoroughly investigated the velocity field in expanding atmospheres and envelopes of hot evolved stars β Ori, α Cyg and supergiant KS Per with the extreme hydrogen deficiency. The complete atlas and list of the identified spectral lines will be available via the astronomical database SIMBAD.     

The special climate change fund: origins and prioritisation assessment

Abstract

A central issue in tackling climate change is to understand to what extent different short-term mitigation strategies are consistent with long-term stabilization targets. The present article aims at cross-comparing emission paths derived by plausible short-term policies against those implied by long-term climate targets, comparing, for example, differences in peak periods. Short-term policies considered are, for instance, Kyoto-type targets with or without participation by the USA and/or by developing countries. Long-term targets focus instead on stabilization of CO₂ concentrations, radiative forcing and the increase in atmospheric temperature relative to pre-industrial levels. In order to account for the uncertainty surrounding the climate cycle, for each long-term goal multiple paths of emission—the most probable, the optimistic and the pessimistic projections—are considered in the comparison exercise. Comparative analysis is performed using the FEEM-RICE model, a regional economy—climate model. The results suggest that some early policy action should take place for short-term emissions to be compatible with long-term targets. In particular, the Kyoto-type regimes appear to be on a compatible emission path, at least up to the second commitment period. However, this is no longer the case when assuming a pessimistic realization of the uncertain climate parameters.     

Magnetosheath Structure in an Anisotropic Plasma Model

Variations of the magnetic field and plasma parameters across the Earth's magnetosheath are calculated for an anisotropic plasma in the Chew-Goldberger-Low approximation. Additionally, proton pitch-angle diffusion is taken into account as the energy transfer mechanism between the direction perpendicular and parallel to the magnetic field. We discuss the main characteristics of the magnetic barrier for different temperature relaxation times and their dependence on the interplanetary magnetic field orientation. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.