A Compilation of Silicon,Rare Earth Element and Twenty‐One other Trace Element Concentrations in the Natural River Water Reference Material SLRS‐5 (NRC‐CNRC)

The natural river water certified reference material SLRS‐5 (NRC‐CNRC) was routinely analysed in this study for major and trace elements by ten French laboratories. Most of the measurements were made using ICP‐MS. Because no certified values are assigned by NRC‐CNRC for silicon and 35 trace element concentrations (rare earth elements, Ag, B, Bi, Cs, Ga, Ge, Li, Nb, P, Rb, Rh, Re, S, Sc, Sn, Th, Ti, Tl, W, Y and Zr), or for isotopic ratios, we provide a compilation of the concentrations and related uncertainties obtained by the participating laboratories. Strontium isotopic ratios are also given.     

Predicting reach‐specific properties of fluvial terraces to guide future fieldwork. A case study for the Late Quaternary River Allier (France) with the FLUVER2 model

Numerical models have not yet systematically been used to predict properties of fluvial terrace records in order to guide fieldwork and sampling. This paper explores the potential of the longitudinal profile model FLUVER2 to predict testable field properties of the relatively well‐studied, Late Quaternary Allier system in France. For the Allier terraces an overlapping ¹⁴C and U‐series chronology as well as a record of ¹⁰Be erosion rates exist. The FLUVER2 modelling exercise is focused on the last 50 ka of the upper Allier reach because for this location and period the constraints of the available dating techniques are tightest. A systematic calibration based on terrace occurrence and thicknesses was done using three internal parameters related to (1) the sediment erodibility; (2) the sediment transport distance; and (3) the sediment supply derived from the surrounding landscape. As external model inputs, the best available, reconstructed, tectonic, climatic and base‐level data were used. Calibrated model outputs demonstrate a plausible match with the existing fluvial record. Validation of model output was done by comparing the modelled and measured timing of aggradation and incision phases for the three locations. The modelled range of landscape erosion rates showed a reasonably good match with existing erosion rate estimates derived from ¹⁰Be measurements of fluvial sands. The quasi‐validated model simulation was subsequently used to make new testable predictions about the timing and location of aggradation and erosion phases for three locations along the Allier river. The validated simulations predict that along the Allier, reach‐specific dynamics of incision and aggradation, related to the variations in sediment supply by major tributaries, cause relevant differences in the local fluvial terrace stratigraphy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Latent heat effects of the major mantle phase transitions on low-angle subduction

Very low to zero shallow dip angles are observed at several moderately young subduction zones with an active trenchward moving overriding plate. We have investigated the effects of latent heat for this situation, where mantle material is pushed through the major mantle phase transitions during shallow low-angle subduction below the overriding plate. The significance of the buoyancy forces, arising from the latent heat effects, on the dynamics of the shallowly subducting slab is examined by numerical modeling. When a 32-Ma-old slab is overridden with 2.5 cm/yr by a continent, flat subduction occurs with a 4–5 cm/yr convergence rate. When latent heat is included in the model, forced downwellings cause a thermal anomaly and consequently thermal and phase buoyancy forces. Under these circumstances, the flat slab segment subducts horizontally about 350 km further and for about 11 Ma longer than in the case without latent heat, before it breaks through the 400-km phase transition. The style of subduction strongly depends on the mantle rheology: increasing the mantle viscosity by one order of magnitude can change the style of subduction from steep to shallow. Similarly, an overriding velocity of less than 1 cm/yr leads to steep subduction, which gradually changes to flat subduction when increasing the overriding velocity. However, these model parameters do not change the aforementioned effect of the latent heat, provided that low-angle subduction occurs. In all models latent heat resulted in a substantial increase of the flat slab length by 300–400 km. Varying the olivine–spinel transition Clapeyron slope γ from 1 to 6 MPa/K reveals a roughly linear relation between γ and the horizontal length of the slab. Based on these results, we conclude that buoyancy forces due to latent heat of phase transitions play an important role in low-angle subduction below an overriding plate.     

The value of a physically based model versus an empirical approach in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion for loess-derived soils

A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L^1.29; R²=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.     

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.