Cluster Analysis of Petrophysical and Geological Parameters for Separating the Electrofacies of a Gas Carbonate Reservoir Sequence

Natural Resources Research - Assessing reservoir properties and knowing the relationship between different reservoir parameters can significantly help to plan for production from a reservoir. In...     

Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database

We present a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) derived for the geometrical mean of the horizontal components and the vertical, considering the latest release of the strong motion database for Italy. The regressions are performed over the magnitude range 4?C6.9 and considering distances up to 200?km. The equations are derived for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5%-damped spectral acceleration at periods between 0.04 and 2?s. The total standard deviation (sigma) varies between 0.34 and 0.38?log₁₀ unit, confirming the large variability of ground shaking parameters when regional data sets containing small to moderate magnitude events (M?<?6) are used. The between-stations variability provides the largest values for periods shorter than 0.2?s while, for longer periods, the between-events and between-stations distributions of error provide similar contribution to the total variability.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.     

Pan-European ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA,PGV, and 5 %-damped PSA at spectral periods up to 3.0 s using the RESORCE dataset

This article presents a set of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for Europe and the Middle East, derived from the RESORCE strong motion data bank, following a standard regression approach. The parametric GMPEs are derived for the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and 5 %-damped pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectra computed over 23 periods between 0.02 and 3 s, considering the average horizontal-component ground-motions. The GMPEs are valid for distances less than 300 km, hypocentral depth up to 35 km and over the magnitude range 4–7.6. Two metrics for the source-to-station distance (i.e. Joyner-Boore and hypocentral) are considered. The selected dataset is composed by 2,126 recordings (at a period of 0.1 s) related to 365 earthquakes, that includes strong-motion data from 697 stations.The EC8 soil classification (four classes from A to D) discriminates recording sites and four classes (normal, reverse, strike-slip, and unspecified) describe the style of faulting. A subset which contains only stations with measured Vs30 and earthquakes with specified focal mechanism (1,224 records from 345 stations and 255 earthquakes) is used to test of the accuracy of the median prediction and the variability associated to the broader data set. A random effect regression scheme is applied and bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the 95 % confidence levels for the parameters. The total standard deviation sigma is decomposed into between-events and within-event components, and the site-to-site component is evaluated as well. The results show that the largest contribution to the total sigma is coming from the within-event component. When analyzing the residual distributions, no significant trends are observed that can be ascribed to the earthquake type (mainshock-aftershock classification) or to the non-linear site effects. The proposed GMPEs have lower median values than global models at short periods and large distances, while are consistent with global models at long periods $(\hbox {T} > 1)$  s. Consistency is found with two regional models developed for Turkey and Italy, as the considered dataset is dominated by waveforms recorded in these regions.     

Evaluation of site effects in the Aterno river valley (Central Italy) from aftershocks of the 2009 L��Aquila earthquake

A temporary network of 33 seismic stations was deployed in the area struck by the 6th April 2009, Mw 6.1 (Scognamiglio et?al. in Seism Res Lett 6/81, 2010), L??Aquila earthquake (central Italy), with the aim to investigate the site amplification within the Aterno river Valley. The seismograms of 18 earthquakes recorded by 14 of the 33 stations were used to evaluate the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for each site and the standard horizontal spectral ratio (SSR) between a site and a reference station. The obtained results have been compared to the geological and geophysical information in order to explain the resonance frequencies and the amplification levels with respect to surface geology of the valley. The results indicate that there is no uniform pattern of amplification, because of the complex geologic setting, as the thickness and degree of cementation of the deposits is highly variable.     

Italian strong motion records in ITACA: overview and record processing

The published version 1.0 of the new Italian strong-motion database ITACA (Italian ACcelerometric Archive, ) includes to date (December 2010) about 4,000 three-component waveforms up to M 6.9, from more than 1,800 earthquakes up to 6.9, recorded by about 400 stations in the period 1972–2009. The uncorrected and corrected strong motion data are archived and can be retrieved with their metadata, concerning events, stations and waveforms. The aim of this paper is to present the procedures for processing the records included in ITACA, accounting for the heterogeneity of this data set, both in terms of quality and amplitude of records as well as illustrating the main features of the ITACA strong-motion dataset. Later, we focus on the “exceptional” ground-motion records, that we, conventionally, denote as those having peak acceleration and peak velocity larger than 300 cm/s² and 15 cm/s, respectively. These records are less than 2% of the whole ITACA dataset but they are the most relevant for the seismic hazard and engineering implications. Such large peak values, recorded at distances up to 30 km, are related not only to the strongest Italian earthquakes, but also to events with magnitude down to 4. Furthermore, we investigate the dependence of the largest peak values on horizontal and vertical directions and on source-to-site distance.     

A novel approach to estimate the variations in stresses and fault state due to depletion of reservoirs

Geomechanical changes may occur in reservoirs due to production from reservoirs. Study of these changes has an important role in upcoming operations. Frictional equilibrium is one of the items that should be determined during the depletion as it may vary with respect to time. Pre-existing faults and fractures will slide in regions where there is no frictional equilibrium. Hence, it may be concluded that reduction in pore pressure can initiate the sliding of faults. Whereas, it is also possible that faults will not exist after a certain time as production recovers the equilibrium. Casing shearing or lost circulation may be occurred due to faulting. In reservoirs which depletion leads to frictional equilibrium, decrease of fractures and faults leads to some variations in permeability. Hence, predicting the effect of depletion on frictional equilibrium is required in dealing with casing shearing or lost circulation in drilling of new wells. In addition, permeability modeling will be more precise during the life of reservoirs. Estimation of necessary time to create or vanish faults is vital to be successful in production from wells or drilling new wells. Achieving or loosing of equilibrium mainly depends on in situ stresses and rate of production. Estimation of the in situ stresses at the initiation state of reservoir is the key to study the state of faults. The next step is to predict the effects of depletion on in situ stresses. Different models are suggested in which decrease of horizontal stresses is predicted as function of pore pressure variation. In these models, different assumptions are made such as simplifying the poroelastic theory, ignoring the passing time, and considering the geometry of reservoir. In this article, a new model is proposed based on theory of inclusions and boundary element method. This state-of-the-art model considers the geometry of reservoir. In addition, changes of in situ are obtained as a function of time to reach to a more precise model capable of applying during the reservoir life. Finally, the model is imposed on real cases. The effect of depletion on faults is studied in reservoirs of normal and strike-slip stress regimes, and conventional and proposed models are compared. For this aim, in the first step, mechanical earth models of these two reservoirs are built using logging and coring data. Stress polygon method and poroelastic horizontal strain model are used for strike-slip and normal regimes, respectively. In reservoir 1 which is in a strike-slip stress regime, a fault is distinguished in formation microimaging (FMI) log. For this reservoir, the required time to achieve to frictional equilibrium is calculated. In the reservoir 2, the potential depth of fault sliding is analyzed and required time for faulting in that depth is predicted. The predicted time for satisfaction of frictional equilibrium using the proposed model has a significant difference with the predicted time using the previous methods. In addition, the proposed model predicts that different parts of reservoir 2 are willing for faulting during depletion. The previous model determines only one point that faulting may happen. It is necessary to use this new model to consider different important factors such as geometry and time to gain more accurate predictions.     

Comparisons among the five ground-motion models developed using RESORCE for the prediction of response spectral accelerations due to earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East

This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.     

Intensity predictive attenuation models calibrated in Mw for metropolitan France

In the framework of the SIGMA project, a study was launched to develop a parametric earthquake catalog for the historical period, covering the metropolitan territory and calibrated in Mw. A set of candidate calibration events was selected corresponding to earthquakes felt over a part of the French metropolitan territory, which are fairly well documented both in terms of macroseismic intensity distributions (SisFrance BRGM-EDF-IRSN) and magnitude estimates. The detailed analysis of the macroseismic data led us to retain only 30 events out of 65 with Mw ranging from 3.6 to 5.8. In order to supplement the dataset with data from larger magnitude events, Italian earthquakes were also considered (11 events posterior to 1900 with Mw?≥?6.0 out of 15 in total), using both the DBMI11 macroseismic database (Locati et al. in Seismol Resour Lett 85(3):727–734, 2014) and the parametric information from the CPTI11 (Rovida et al. in CPTI11, la versione 2011 del Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica et Vulcanologia, Milano, Bologna, 2011.  https://doi.org/10.6092/ingv.it-cpti11). To avoid introducing bias related to the differences in terms of intensity scales (MSK vs. MCS), only intensities smaller than or equal to VII were considered (Traversa et al. in On the use of cross-border macroseismic data to improve the estimation of past earthquakes seismological parameters, 2014). Mw and depth metadata were defined according to the Si-Hex catalogue (Cara et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 186:3–19, 2015.  https://doi.org/10.2113/qssqfbull.186.1.3), published information, and to the specific worked conducted within SIGMA related to early instrumental recordings (Benjumea et al. in Study of instrumented earthquakes that occurred during the first part of the 20th century (1905–1962), 2015). For the depth estimates, we also performed a macroseismic analysis to evaluate the range of plausible estimates and check the consistency of the solutions. Uncertainties on the metadata related to the calibration earthquakes were evaluated using the range of available alternative estimates. The intensity attenuation models were developed using a one-step maximum likelihood scheme. Several mathematical formulations and sub-datasets were considered to evaluate the robustness of the results (similarly to Baumont and Scotti in Accounting for data and modeling uncertainties in empirical macroseismic predictive equations (EMPEs). Towards “European” EMPEs based on SISFRANCE, DBMI, ECOS macroseismic database, 2008). In particular, as the region of interest may be characterized by significant laterally varying attenuation properties (Bakun and Scotti in Geophys J Int 164:596–610, 2006; Gasperini in Bull Seismol Soc Am 91:826–841, 2001), we introduced regional attenuation terms to account for this variability. Two zonation schemes were tested, one at the national scale (France/Italy), another at the regional scale based on the studies of Mayor et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, 2017.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0124-8) for France and Gasperini (2001) for Italy. Between and within event residuals were analyzed in detail to identify the best models, that is, the ones associated with the best misfit and most limited residual trends with intensity and distance. This analysis led us to select four sets of models for which no significant trend in the between- and within-event residuals is detected. These models are considered to be valid over a wide range of Mw covering?~?3.5–7.0.