Risk and return of U.S. water transportation stocks over time and over bull and bear market conditions

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of water transportation company stock returns in the U.S. stock exchanges from 1985 to 1994 in order to determine whether the systematic risk of this industry is different from that of the 'average' company in the market, whether it has changed over the ten year period, over bull and bear market conditions, and whether there is a firm 'size' effect in the industry. In the context of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (Capm), we find that the systematic risk of the shipping industry return is not different from that of the 'average' company. It is also found that the covariance of water transportation companies with respect to the overall stock market return did not change over the ten year period although it appears that it has changed over normal upward/downward market movements. There is also reasonable evidence that the intercept of the equation might have changed over normal upward/downward market movements. Finally, we document contradictory evidence regarding the size effect; during the period 1985-1989 we find small companies to have significantly higher returns and risk while during the period 1990-1994 medium size companies tend to have higher risk than small and large firms, which is not however compensated by higher returns.     

Mixed analysis of shell and solid elements using the overlaying mesh method

 This article presents a mixed method of analyzing shell elements and solid elements using the overlaying mesh method. In the structural design of a ship's hull, the shell elements are used for the global model. However, the solid elements are necessary to analyze the stress concentration zones or the vicinity of a crack. In such cases, the models are analyzed using zooming analysis, in which the results of a global model analysis are transferred to a local model analysis by imposing boundary conditions. This method is more advantageous than zooming analysis in terms of the accuracy of the solution and the modeling flexibility. Some examples of a plate model with a cracked surface or with a projection are shown in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Received: August 6, 2002 / Accepted: November 25, 2002 Address correspondence to: S. Nakasumi (sumi@nasl.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp) Updated from the Japanese original, which won the 2002 SNAJ prize (J Soc Nav Archit Jpn 2001;189:219–224; and 190:655–662)     

Maritime accident investigation and temporal determinants of maritime accidents: A case study

This paper presents the results of an investigation into temporal determinants of maritime accidents based on a data-set obtained from the proceedings of formal inquiries in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The results show that there is no statistically significant outcome between the probability for an accident and the time of watch. Thus the results do not confirm previous studies, which reported significant time of day effects.The outcome of this study indicates that marine inquiries can provide useful data for an analysis of underlying causes of maritime accidents. It is suggested that accident inquiries should be extended into the area of watch systems employed and should record the hours of work and of rest of the officers on the watch involved in a maritime accident.     

The role of professional associations in shipping

This article is in three parts. The first covers the historical development of qualifying associations. The second covers the particular role of maritime institutions that include The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, The Institute of Marine Engineering Science and Technology and The Nautical Institute. The third and final section considers the future for maritime professional associations in the context of international shipping.     

Analysis of Driver's Decelerating Strategy in a Car-following Situation

This report describes a decelerating driver-model expressed by driving mode transition in car-following situations. The assumptions for constructing the model are that decelerating strategy of a driver is classified into several simple driving modes and that a driver changs his driving modes based on his perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. Deceleration action is divided into three states; following, standing and braking, which are applied to the model. The model has two paths for driver's decelerating action, one of which is selected by the driver based on the perceptible characteristics and experiential rules. The suitability of the model has been experimentally verified.     

Multiphysic modelling of railway vehicles equipped with pneumatic suspensions

This article presents a multidisciplinary approach of railway pneumatic suspension modelling: both multibody and pneumatic aspects are taken into account. The work aims at obtaining a realistic model of the secondary suspension and coupling it with a multibody model of a train. Various components of the pneumatic circuit such as bellows, tanks, pipes and valves are taken into account. The article focuses on the bellow-pipe-tank subsystem for which several modelling approaches are presented and compared. Differences between differential and algebraic models are highlighted, and an application-dependent choice between them is suggested. A complete model of the pneumatic circuit is then obtained and coupled with a multibody model of the train. As a result, the behaviour of a suburban train equipped with a pneumatic secondary suspension is analysed, in particular undesired oscillating motions which affect the comfort. Topological modifications and improvements of the suspension are also investigated and discussed.     

Managing transportation during highway reconstruction: A recommended process

Major highway reconstruction can cause significant disruptions to existing travel patterns and economic activity. Reducing these impacts on travelers, shippers, businesses and residents requires that innovative and effective transportation management actions be developed and implemented. This paper reports the major findings and recommendations of a research study on managing transportation during highway, reconstruction. The primary objectives of the study were

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.     

Lattice-based group signature with verifier-local revocation

Among several post quantum primitives proposed in the past few decades, lattice-based cryptography is considered as the most promising one, due to its underlying rich combinatorial structure, and the worst-case to average-case reductions. The first lattice-based group signature scheme with verifier-local revocation(VLR) is treated as the first quantum-resistant scheme supported member revocation, and was put forward by Langlois et al. This VLR group signature(VLR-GS) has group public key size of O(nm log N log q), and a signature size of O(tm log N log q log β). Nguyen et al. constructed a simple efficient group signature from lattice, with significant advantages in bit-size of both the group public key and the signature. Based on their work, we present a VLR-GS scheme with group public key size of O(nm log q) and signature size of O(tm log q). Our group signature has notable advantages: support of membership revocation, and short in both the public key size and the signature size.     

Correlation between automotive CO, HC, NO, and PM emission factors from on-road remote sensing: implications for inspection and maintenance programs

Carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbon (HC), and nitrogen oxide (NO) emission factors (EFs) are measured with a commercial vehicle emissions remote sensing system (VERSS) during a large-scale vehicle exhaust emissions study in Las Vegas. Particulate matter (PM) EFs are simultaneously measured for individual vehicles with a newly developed PM-VERSS based on ultraviolet backscatter light detection and ranging (Lidar). The effectiveness of CO and HC EFs as proxy for NO and PM EFs for spark-ignition vehicles is evaluated. Poor correlations were found between EFs for pollutants on an individual vehicle basis indicating that high EFs for one or more pollutants cannot be used as a predictor of high EFs for other pollutants. Stronger functional relationships became evident after averaging the EF data in bins based on rank-order of a single pollutant EF. Low overlap between the highest 10% emitters for CO, HC, NO, and PM was found. These results imply that for an effective reduction of the four pollutants, inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including clean screening, should measure all four pollutants individually. Fleet average CO and HC concentrations determined by gaseous VERSS were compared with fleet average CO and HC concentrations measured at low-idle and at high-idle during local I/M tests for spark-ignition vehicles. The fleet average CO concentrations measured by I/M tests at either idle were about half of those measured by remote sensing. The fleet average high-idle HC concentration measured by I/M tests was about half of that measured by VERSS while low-idle I/M and VERSS HC average concentrations were in better agreement. For a typical vehicle trip, most of the fuel is burned during non-idle conditions. I/M measurements collected during idling conditions may not be a good indicator of a vehicle’s potential to be a high emitter. VERSS measurements, when the vehicle is under a load, should more effectively identify high emitting vehicles that have a large contribution to the mobile emissions inventory.