Link prediction in complex networks via modularity-based belief propagation

Link prediction aims at detecting missing, spurious or evolving links in a network, based on the topological information and/or nodes' attributes of the network. Under the assumption that the likelihood of the existence of a link between two nodes can be captured by nodes' similarity, several methods have been proposed to compute similarity directly or indirectly, with information on node degree. However, correctly predicting links is also crucial in revealing the link formation mechanisms and thus in providing more accurate modeling for networks. We here propose a novel method to predict links by incorporating stochastic-block-model link generating mechanisms with node degree. The proposed method first recovers the underlying block structure of a network by modularity-based belief propagation, and based on the recovered block structural information it models the link likelihood between two nodes to match the degree sequence of the network. Experiments on a set of real-world networks and synthetic networks generated by stochastic block model show that our proposed method is effective in detecting missing, spurious or evolving links of networks that can be well modeled by a stochastic block model. This approach efficiently complements the toolbox for complex network analysis, offering a novel tool to model links in stochastic block model networks that are fundamental in the modeling of real world complex networks.