Reconstructing historical seismicity from lake sediments (Lake Laffrey, Western Alps, France)

Sediment archives from a mountain lake are used as indicators of seismotectonic activity in the Grenoble area (French western Alps, 45°N). Sedimentological analysis (texture and grain-size characteristics) exhibits several layers resulting from instantaneous deposits in Lake Laffrey: six debris flow events up to 8 cm thick can be attributed to slope failure along the western flank of the basin. Dating with ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs gamma counting techniques and the reconnaissance of historical events, provide a constrained age-depth model. Over the last 250 years, five of such debris flow deposits could be related to historical earthquakes of MSK intensities greater than VI over an area of <60 km. One debris flow deposit triggered at the beginning of the last century can be related to an historical landslide possibly triggered by the artificial regulation of the lake level.     

Searching for Planetary Eclipses in Open Clusters: NGC 7086

In an attempt to discover planetary eclipses, we observed the open cluster NGC 7086. On one night we observed the cluster and standard stars through the B and V filters, enabling us to make a colour-magnitude diagram. Plots of the differential magnitudes were inspected for variability, but no planetary eclipses were found. New variable stars were discovered and their light curves show some of them to be eclipsing binary stars. The location on the colour-magnitude diagram of some of the variable stars is consistent with cluster membership.     

A study of motions in the winter mesosphere using the partial reflection drift technique

Intensive partial reflection drift observations were made at Adelaide (35°S) for a seven day period in June 1973. The results have been analysed to isolate the prevailing motion and oscillations of various time scales: planetary, 24 hr, 12 hr and gravity waves. Each is discussed in turn with particular emphasis on the variability of energy from day to day and as a function of height. Evidence is presented for the local generation of planetary waves, the presence of the evanescent S_?2¹ mode in the 24 hr oscillation, the influence of the S₄² mode in the 12 hr oscillation and a definite polarization of gravity waves. The energies of all the forms of motion are shown to decay exponentially with increasing height and the deposition of energy and momentum in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere is discussed.     

The reflection of plane waves in a poroelastic half-space saturated with inviscid fluid

This paper discusses surface displacements, surface strain, rocking, and energy partitioning during reflection-of-plane waves in a fluid-saturated poroelastic half-space. The medium is modeled by Biot's theory, and is assumed to be saturated with inviscid fluid. A linear porosity-modulus relation based on experimental data on sandstones is used to determine the material parameters for Biot's model. Numerical results in terms of angle of incident waves and Poisson's ratio are illustrated for various porosities and degrees of solid frame stiffness. The results show that the amount of solid frame stiffness controls the response of a fluid-saturated porous system. A poroelastic medium with essentially dry-frame stiffness behaves like an elastic medium, and the influence of pore fluid increases as dry-frame stiffness is reduced. The effects of a second P-wave become noticeable in poroelastic media with low dry-frame stiffness.     

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.     

Petrologic evolution of Krakatau (Indonesia): Implications for a future activity

Krakatau Volcano is located along a N35E volcanic lineament running through the Sunda straits (Indonesia). Its last activity has been characterized by successive phases, each beginning with the construction of a cone, and ending with its destruction and the formation of a caldera. The two last (pre- and post-1883) cycles are well known, but the more ancient ones are not so clearly defined.Lavas of Krakatau belong to an andesitic series, in which fractional crystallization plays the most important role. The petrologic evolution is characterized by a cyclicity in good agreement with the structural evolution: the succession is regular: basalts, basic andesites, acid andesites, dacites. A gap between acid and basic andesites occurs in each cycle. The destructive stages correspond to the occurrence of dacitic terms.The Anak cycle was characterized from 1927 to 1979 by basalts and basic andesites; the 1981 eruption involved a more differentiated magma (close to dacitic). Detailed study of the petrologic evolution since 1883 emphasizes the predominant role of fractional crystallization. This process occurred during a very short period, between 1979 and 1981. Separation of labradorite, augite, olivine and magnetite from parental basic andesite may generate the dacitic descendant, in a shallow reservoir (P_H2O estimated about 0.5 kbar). Implications for a future activity are considered.