Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe

Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO₂ will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors.     

Assessment of Kinetic Energy of Meteoroids Detected by Satellite-Based Light Sensors

Radiation energies of bright flashes caused by disintegration of large meteoroids in the atmosphere have been measured using optical sensors on board geostationary satellites. Light curves versus time are available for some of the events. We have worked out several numerical techniques to derive the kinetic energy of the meteoroids that produced the flashes. Spectral opacities of vapor of various types of meteoroids were calculated for a wide range of possible temperatures and densities. Coefficients of conversion of kinetic energy to radiation energy were computed for chondritic and iron meteoroids 10 cm to 10 m in size using radiation–hydrodynamics numerical simulations. Luminous efficiency increases with body size and initial velocity. Some analytical approximations are presented for average conversion coefficients for irons and H-chondrites. A mean value of this coefficient for large meteoroids (1–10 m in size) is about 5–10%. The theory was tested by analyzing the light curves of several events in detail.Kinetic energies of impactors and energy–frequency distribution of 51 bolides, detected during 22 months of systematic observations in 1994–1996, are determined using theoretical values of luminous efficiencies and heat-transfer coefficients. The number of impacts in the energy range from 0.25 to 4 kt TNT is 25 per year and per total surface of the Earth.The energy–frequency distribution is in a rather good agreement with that derived from acoustic observations and the lunar crater record. Acoustic systems have registered one 1 Mt event in 12 years of observation. Optical systems have not detected such an event as yet due to a shorter time of observation. The probability of a 1 Mt impact was estimated by extrapolation of the observational data.     

Experimental investigations and analysis on different pile load testing procedures

The paper presents experimental results of two Osterberg’s cell load tests (OLTs) and three conventional load tests (COLTs) in the same subsoil conditions on Continuous Flight Auger (CFA) piles carefully monitored during construction stages. The instrumentation along the pile shaft in all the tests allows interesting comparisons of both global behaviour and local load transfer. Significant differences in the stiffness of the soil-pile system with the different test procedures is outlined. The main differences between the two test procedures occur at the two opposite ends of the pile, as could have been expected, while the observed behaviour in the middle part of the tested piles is close for the two models. A relatively simple FEM model has been calibrated on the basis of the OLTs results. The same model is capable of accurately matching the experimental results of the COLTs, proving that the observed differences are not due to random factors. Furthermore, the same model has been used to simulate ideal load tests. Such a reliable simulation shows that both the experimental procedures are actually responsible for significant differences in the behaviour of the soil-pile system even in the simple case of a concentrated axial load. Large differences arise in terms of the stiffness of the system with the OLTs providing by far the stiffest response. Despite being intermediate between the OLT and the ILT, the COLTs provide a response of the pile-soil system, which is on the average about two times stiffer than the Ideal test, where the force applied on top of the pile does not depend on a tangible reaction system. Care should be thus taken when considering the results of such tests in the prediction of the settlement of a piled foundation. Correction factors should be applied to the experimentally observed behaviour.     

Re-assessment of foundation settlements for the Burj Khalifa, Dubai

This paper deals with the re-assessment of foundation settlements for the Burj Khalifa Tower in Dubai. The foundation system for the tower is a piled raft, founded on deep deposits of calcareous rocks. Two computer programs, Geotechnical Analysis of Raft with Piles (GARP) and Non-linear Analysis of Piled Rafts (NAPRA) have been used for the settlement analyses, and the paper outlines the procedure adopted to re-assess the foundation settlements based on a careful interpretation of load tests on trial piles in which the interaction effects of the pile test set-up are allowed for. The paper then examines the influence of a series of factors on the computed settlements. In order to obtain reasonable estimates of differential settlements within the system, it is found desirable to incorporate the effects of the superstructure stiffness which act to increase the stiffness of the overall foundation system. Values of average and differential settlements for the piled raft calculated with GARP and NAPRA were found to be in reasonable agreement with measured data on settlements taken near the end of construction of the tower.     

POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.     

Analysis of the Marshall Islands Fireball of February 1, 1994

On February 1, 1994, a large meteoroid impacted over the Pacific Ocean at 2.6° N, 164.1° E. The impact was observed by space based IR sensors operated by the US Department of Defense and by visible wavelength sensors operated by the US Department of Energy. During entry the object broke into several pieces, one of which detonated at 34 km and another at 21 km altitude. The entry velocity of the object is estimated to be 24–25 km/sec. Based on the visible wavelength data, the integrated intensity of the radiated energy of the fireball was approximately 1.3 × 10¹³ joules. Assuming a 6000 K black body and a 30% efficiency for the conversion of the kinetic energy of the body into visible light, we estimate the mass of the body to be between 1.6×10⁵ kg and 4.4×10⁶ kg, and to have a diameter of between 4.4 and 13.5 meters. The object entered at a 45° angle, traveling on a heading of approximately 300°, i.e. from the southeast to the northwest. Calculations using a gross-fragmentation model indicate that the body was most likely a stony object larger than 10 m with an Apollo orbit prior to impact.E T Space SystemsSandia National LaboratoriesOndejov Observatory     

Testing the gamma-ray burst variability/peak luminosity correlation on a Swift homogeneous sample

We test the gamma-ray burst (GRB) correlation between temporal variability and peak luminosity of the γ-ray profile on a homogeneous sample of 36 Swift /Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) GRBs with firm redshift determination. This is the first time that this correlation can be tested on a homogeneous data sample. The correlation is confirmed, as long as the six GRBs with low luminosity (  <5 × 10⁵⁰   erg s⁻¹  in the rest-frame 100–1000 keV energy band) are ignored. We confirm that the considerable scatter of the correlation already known is not due to the combination of data from different instruments with different energy bands, but it is intrinsic to the correlation itself. Thanks to the unprecedented sensitivity of Swift /BAT, the variability/peak luminosity correlation is tested on low-luminosity GRBs. Our results show that these GRBs are definite outliers.     

Recent Trends Towards Oligotrophication of the Northern Adriatic: Evidence from Chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> Time Series

The results of the updated and quality-checked data base of field observations on chlorophyll a (Chl a) collected in the period 1970–2007 in the Northern Adriatic Sea are presented. From the last decade, SeaWiFS satellite information was also considered. Results demonstrate a global tendency towards Chl a reduction in the period of investigation, which is more marked in the eutrophic area under the influence of the Po River. In the rest of the basin, which presents meso- or oligotrophic characteristics, long-term changes are more difficult to detect. The long-term field dataset can be divided into two periods: the last decade characterized by the strong decrease observed in the whole northern Adriatic and the earlier period with no or slight increase. The recent substantial reduction of Chl a concentrations is confirmed all over the basin (−0.11 mg m⁻³ year⁻¹) from satellite-derived information. Results are consistent with recently evidenced decrease in concentrations of phosphate and ammonia and point to the existence of oligotrophication in the Northern Adriatic. Results indicate forcefully that the still common perception of the Adriatic Sea as a very eutrophic basin is no longer appropriate, at least for its northern part and in recent years.