Widening the Panama Canal and U.S. ports: historical and economic impact analyses

ABSTRACT

The economic history of the U.S. illustrates how the role of many cities has been changed by being seaports or located on navigable rivers or lakes. Based on the widening of the Panama Canal in 2016, the West Coast ports that include the west coast seaports of California, Oregon, and Washington were expected to become less important, while the freight shares of the East Coast and Gulf ports would increase. By how much it has been not easy to measure or predict so far, but this study attempted to define some of the key parameters in the measurement. As well as several relevant background topics, both the demand- and supply-side versions of the National Interstate Economic Model, have been applied for the measurement of economic impacts. U.S. port authorities and policy makers at the local and national levels who respond and develop plans for coping with the new realities of the Panama Canal are able to understand the extent to which changes in shippers’ and land-mode transporters’ behaviors would undermine the logistics and the costs of their activities. Therefore, this study is important for a diverse spectrum of port development strategies in the U.S. to respond to the Canal expansion.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

Integrated approach to an optimal automotive timing chain system design

Ensuring engine efficiency is a crucial issue for automotive manufacturers. Several manufacturers focus on reducing the time taken to develop and introduce brand new vehicles to the market. Thus, a synergic approach including various simulations is generally adopted to achieve a development schedule and to reduce the cost of physical tests. This study involved proposing a design process that is very useful in the preliminary development stage through effective support from simulations. This type of simulation-based design process is effective in developing timing chain drives; the use of this process, based on results from multiple trials, showed improvements in performance including low friction and vibration, improved durability, and cost-effective part design when compared to conventional processes. This study proposes an integrated approach to the preliminary design of an automotive timing chain system. The approach involves structural and dynamic analyses. The details of the design process are described by using the case of a virtual engine. This study conducted and summarized a dynamic and structural analysis as well as topological optimization to describe a process to obtain optimal results. The results of this study indicated the following improvements in overall performance factors: 12.1 % improvement in transmission error, 10.1 % reduction in chain tension, 46 % reduction in tensioner arm weight, and 11 % reduction in transversal displacement.     

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

Observations of the Fawn Trough Current over the Kerguelen Plateau from instrumented elephant seals

Due to its great meridional extent and relatively shallow depths, the Kerguelen Plateau constitutes a major barrier to the eastward flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. While most of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport is deflected north of the Kerguelen Islands, the remainder ( 50 Sv, 1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s^− 1) must pass south of the islands, most probably through the Fawn and Princess Elizabeth Troughs. However, the paucity of finely resolved quasi-synoptic hydrographic data in this remote and infrequently sampled area has limited the progress in our knowledge of the regional circulation. Since 2004, a new approach using elephant seals from the Kerguelen Islands as autonomous oceanographic profilers has provided new information on the hydrography over the Kerguelen Plateau, covering the entire Antarctic Zone between the Polar Front and Antarctica, with a mean along-track resolution of about 25 km. These finely resolved bio-logged data revealed details of a strong northeastward current found across the Fawn Trough (sill depth: 2600 m; 56°S, 78°E). This so-called Fawn Trough Current transports cold Antarctic waters found mostly south of the Elan Bank, between the Ice Limit (58°S) and the Antarctic Divergence (64°S) in the eastern Enderby Basin, toward the Australian–Antarctic Basin. Our analysis also demonstrates that the Deep Western Boundary Current, which carries cold Antarctic water along the eastern flank of the southern Kerguelen Plateau collides with Fawn Trough Current at the outlet of the Fawn Trough sill. In other words, the Fawn Trough constitutes a veritable bottleneck, channelling the quasi-totality of the Antarctic Circumpolar flow found south of the Polar Front. Thanks to the unprecedented fine resolution of seal-borne data, a branch of flow centered at the Winter Water isotherm of 1 °C is also revealed along the northern escarpment of the Elan Bank, and then along the southern edge of Heard Island. Further analysis of different supplementary data reveals a complex circulation pattern in the entire Enderby Basin, with several distinctive branches of flow being strongly controlled by prominent topographic features such as the Southwest Indian Ridge, Conrad Rise, Elan Bank, and Kerguelen Plateau. This newly emerged frontal structure refines considerably previous large-scale circulation schematics of the area.     

Time-variant ultimate longitudinal strength of corroded bulk carriers

Many bulk carrier losses have been reported of late, and one of the possible causes of such casualties is thought to be the structural failure of aging hulls in rough weather. In aging ships, corrosion and fatigue cracks are the two most important factors affecting structural safety and integrity. This paper uses a set of the time-dependent corrosion wastage models for 23 different member locations/categories of bulk carriers previously developed by the authors, based on the available corrosion measurements for existing large bulk carrier structures. Differences due to the location and corrosion severity of every member type are taken into account. The nominal design corrosion values for the primary members are suggested based on the annualized corrosion rates obtained in the present study. The effect of time-variant corrosion wastage on the ultimate hull girder strength as well as the section moduli is studied. The criteria for repair and maintenance of heavily corroded structural members so as to keep the ultimate longitudinal strength at an acceptable level are discussed. Important insights and conclusions developed are summarized.     

Why is the southwest the most productive region of the East Sea/Sea of Japan?

The East Sea/Sea of Japan is a moderately productive sea that supports a wealth of living marine resources. Of the East Sea subregions, the southwest has the highest productivity. Various authors have proposed coastal upwelling, the Tsushima Current, the Changjiang Dilute Water, eddies, or discharge from the Nagdong River as potential sources of additional nutrients. In this paper, we propose, using satellite data from 1998 to 2006, that the biological productivity of the southwestern region is enhanced mainly by wind-driven upwelling along the Korean coast. Firstly, the climatology of seasonal patterns suggests that the enhanced chlorophyll a along the Korean coast is of local origin. Secondly, coastal upwelling is frequent in all seasons except winter. For example, along the coast of the Ulgi region, enhanced chlorophyll a due to coastal upwelling was observed for 25–92% of the time between Jun and Sep in the period 1998–2006. Thirdly, the advection of upwelled water through various pathways to the deeper basin was observed. Fourthly, there appeared to be a strong correlation between the interannual chlorophyll a variations of the coastal upwelling regions and the Ulleung Basin. The chlorophyll a patterns of both regions were closely related to the wind pattern in the upwelling regions, but not to that in the Ulleung Basin. Finally, changes in advection pathways also appeared to affect the productivity of the Ulleung Basin. Since 2004, there has been a shift in the pathways of upwelled water, and consequent increases in chlorophyll a in the Ulleung Basin were observed. This last observation requires further investigation.     

Effects of Test Conditions on Fuel Economy of Gasoline-Powered Vehicle

In this study, the influence on fuel economy testing of gasoline-powered vehicles is evaluated for various test conditions (e.g., laboratory temperature, soaking time, cooling fan, battery charge state, and driving mode tracking). It showed a difference in fuel economy results of approximately 3 % between low (88 %) and high (99 %) battery state of charge conditions because the alternator saving function has a positive effect on fuel economy. Fuel economy testing with laboratory temperature changes gave a slight reduction at 21 °C and slight increase at 29 °C. The cooling fan changes had an almost negligible effect on fuel consumption. The largest fuel economy result varied by 5.2 % in the soft, standard, and rough driving conditions.     

Detection of Cognitive and Visual Distraction Using Radial Basis Probabilistic Neural Networks

This paper suggests a real-time method for detecting a driver’s cognitive and visual distraction using lateral driving performance measures. The algorithm adopts radial basis probabilistic neural networks (RBPNNs) to construct classification models. In this study, combinations of two driving performance data measures, including the standard deviation of lane position (SDLP) and steering wheel reversal rate (SRR), were considered as measures of distraction. Data for training and testing the RBPNN models were collected under simulated conditions in which fifteen participants drove on a highway. While driving, they were asked to complete auditory recall tasks or arrow search tasks to create cognitively or visually distracted driving periods. As a result, the best performing model could detect distraction with an average accuracy of 78.0 %, which is a relatively high accuracy in the human factors domain. The results demonstrated that the RBPNN model using SDLP and SRR could be an effective distraction detector with easy-to-obtain and inexpensive inputs.     

Vibration reduction of H/Shaft using an electromagnetic damper with mode change

The objective of this study is to develop a damper that can reduce the amplitude of vibration in various frequency ranges. Previous H/Shaft vibration reduction methods work in a passive way. A dynamic damper reduces the amplitude of vibration at its first mode, but vibration still appears at the second mode. A mass damper or hollow shaft can shift the natural frequency to a lower or higher region. The fixed operating frequency prevents vibration from being reduced outside the operating frequency range. The proposed damper uses electromagnets as either masses or actuators to change the damper mode between dynamic damper mode and mass damper mode. The electromagnetic damper (EMD) can change its mode to respond to the vibration excitation at both low and high frequencies. The vibration reduction performance was evaluated by FRF tests in laboratory and vehicle conditions. The results were compared with those of a dynamic damper and indicate that the amplitude of vibration is reduced by 95.6 % when the EMD is implemented on an H/Shaft, whereas only 61.9 % vibration reduction is achieved by the dynamic damper.