Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Effects of Category Order on Answers in Mail and Telephone Surveys1

Abstract Past research suggests that mail surveys encourage a primacy effect, which is a tendency to choose the first answers from a list, whereas telephone surveys encourage a recency effect, a tendency to choose the last answers from a list. This paper summarizes results from 82 new experiments conducted in 12 separate surveys in seven states. Only four of 33 mail survey comparisons exhibited significant primacy effects, while five of 26 experiments in telephone surveys exhibited recency effects. In addition, only three of 23 cross-method comparisons produced a significant primacy/recency effect in the expected manner. The conclusion is that the prevalence of primacy and recency effects has been over-estimated by past research and a new theoretical approach that takes into account multiple causation is needed for examining these effects.     

Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

To Refer or Not to Refer: Exploring Family Therapists' Beliefs and Practices Related to the Referral of Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Clients

This study explored how negative beliefs toward lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) individuals and LGB clinical competence influenced family therapists' beliefs and practices regarding referring based on the sexual orientation of the client. The sample consisted of 741 experienced clinicians. The results of this study indicated that the majority of the participants believe it is ethical to refer LGB clients; however, most had never made such a referral. Furthermore, participants who had referred based solely on the client's sexual orientation reported higher levels of negative beliefs toward LGB individuals and lower levels of LGB clinical competence. Finally, negative beliefs toward LGB persons not only predicted the practice of referring, but also the belief that it is ethical to refer an LGB client.     

Making Sense of After‐School Care Dilemmas in Mothers' Stories of After‐School Care in Finland and Sweden

The study focuses on dilemmas in storied experiences of everyday after‐school care arrangements among Swedish and Finnish mothers. Finland and Sweden, which share a history of strong labour market attachment among women, arrange institutional after‐school care in similar ways. The data consist of interviews with three Swedish and six Finnish mothers. A positioning analysis of four stories shows how decisions related to children's after‐school hours were allocated among different actors. Two reoccurring dilemmas, Competent‐dependent child stories and Unburdened‐deficient mother stories, emerged from the data analysis as related to prevailing moral discourses on childhood and motherhood.     

Social Justice and the Capabilities Approach: Seeking a Global Blueprint for the EPAS

The concept of social justice shapes several of the competencies and practice behaviors of the Council of Social Work Education’s Educational Policy and Accreditation Standards (EPAS). Furthermore, a global perspective guides the social work profession and influences its educational programs. A number of social work scholars have adopted the capabilities approach, as defined by economist Amartya Sen and political scientist Martha Nussbaum, as a globally relevant social justice framework. This article builds on this scholarship, suggesting that the capabilities approach provides a blueprint to rethink and conceptualize the EPAS social justice pedagogy in the global context. Teaching illustrations integrating the capabilities approach in an EPAS curriculum are offered.     

Putting people into dynamic places: the importance of specific contexts in understanding demographic responses to changes in the natural environment

Population and Environment -     

Research-in-Progress Sessions Create a More Inclusive and Engaging Regional Conference

The Pacific Sociological Association annual meeting recently added a new session type called the Research-in-Progress (RIP) session. The purpose of adding these sessions was to provide an opportunity for attendees to present research still in formative stages of completion in order to get useful feedback. Presentations ranged from doctoral dissertation proposals to nearly completed research. Early experience from RIP session organizers and discussants is that these sessions were lively and engaging, sparking a great deal of audience participation. Feedback from presenters indicated that they received useful feedback. Based on our initial experience with the RIP sessions, we believe they are a beneficial addition to the meetings.     

Education,cognitive ability,and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition.