From the Cover: Evidence from South Africa for a protracted end-Permian extinction on land

Earth’s largest biotic crisis occurred during the Permo–Triassic Transition (PTT). On land, this event witnessed a turnover from synapsid- to archosauromorph-dominated assemblages and a restructuring of terrestrial ecosystems. However, understanding extinction patterns has been limited by a lack of high-precision fossil occurrence data to resolve events on submillion-year timescales. We analyzed a unique database of 588 fossil tetrapod specimens from South Africa’s Karoo Basin, spanning ∼4 My, and 13 stratigraphic bin intervals averaging 300,000 y each. Using sample-standardized methods, we characterized faunal assemblage dynamics during the PTT. High regional extinction rates occurred through a protracted interval of ∼1 Ma, initially co-occurring with low origination rates. This resulted in declining diversity up to the acme of extinction near the Daptocephalus–Lystrosaurus declivis Assemblage Zone boundary. Regional origination rates increased abruptly above this boundary, co-occurring with high extinction rates to drive rapid turnover and an assemblage of short-lived species symptomatic of ecosystem instability. The “disaster taxon” Lystrosaurus shows a long-term trend of increasing abundance initiated in the latest Permian. Lystrosaurus comprised 54% of all specimens by the onset of mass extinction and 70% in the extinction aftermath. This early Lystrosaurus abundance suggests its expansion was facilitated by environmental changes rather than by ecological opportunity following the extinctions of other species as commonly assumed for disaster taxa. Our findings conservatively place the Karoo extinction interval closer in time, but not coeval with, the more rapid marine event and reveal key differences between the PTT extinctions on land and in the oceans.

Mass extinctions are major perturbations of the biosphere resulting from a wide range of different causes including glaciations and sea level fall (1), large igneous provinces (2), and bolide impacts (3, 4). These events caused permanent changes to Earth’s ecosystems, altering the evolutionary trajectory of life (5). However, links between the broad causal factors of mass extinctions and the biological and ecological disturbances that lead to species extinctions have been difficult to characterize. This is because ecological disturbances unfold on timescales much shorter than the typical resolution of paleontological studies (6), particularly in the terrestrial record (6–8). Coarse-resolution studies have demonstrated key mass extinction phenomena including high extinction rates and lineage turnover (7, 9), changes in species richness (10), ecosystem instability (11), and the occurrence of disaster taxa (12). However, finer time resolutions are central to determining the association and relative timings of these effects, their potential causal factors, and their interrelationships. Achieving these goals represents a key advance in understanding the ecological mechanisms of mass extinctions.The end-Permian mass extinction (ca. 251.9 Ma) was Earth’s largest biotic crisis as measured by taxon last occurrences (13–15). Large outpourings from Siberian Trap volcanism (2) are the likely trigger of calamitous climatic changes, including a runaway greenhouse effect and ocean acidification, which had profound consequences for life on land and in the oceans (16–18). An estimated 81% of marine species (19) and 89% of tetrapod genera became extinct as established Permian ecosystems gave way to those of the Triassic. In the ocean, this included the complete extinction of reef-forming tabulate and rugose corals (20, 21) and significant losses in previously diverse ammonoid, brachiopod, and crinoid families (22). On land, many nonmammalian synapsids became extinct (16), and the glossopterid-dominated floras of Gondwana also disappeared (23). Stratigraphic sequences document a global “coral gap” and “coal gap” (24, 25), suggesting reef and forest ecosystems were rare or absent for up to 5 My after the event (26). Continuous fossil-bearing deposits documenting patterns of turnover across the Permian–Triassic transition (PTT) on land (27) and in the oceans (28) are geographically widespread (29, 30), including marine and continental successions that are known from China (31, 32) and India (33). Continental successions are known from Russia (34), Australia (35), Antarctica (36), and South Africa’s Karoo Basin (Fig. 1 and 37–40), the latter providing arguably the most densely sampled and taxonomically scrutinized (41–43) continental record of the PTT. The main extinction has been proposed to occur at the boundary between two biostratigraphic zones with distinctive faunal assemblages, the Daptocephalus and Lystrosaurus declivis assemblage zones (Fig. 1), which marks the traditional placement of the Permian–Triassic geologic boundary [(37) but see ref. 44]. Considerable research has attempted to understand the anatomy of the PTT in South Africa (38, 39, 45–52) and to place it in the context of biodiversity changes across southern Gondwana (53, 54) and globally (29, 31, 32, 44, 47, 55).Open in a separate windowFig. 1.Map of South Africa depicting the distribution of the four tetrapod fossil assemblage zones (Cistecephalus, Daptocephalus, Lystrosaurus declivis, Cynognathus) and our two study sites where fossils were collected in this study (sites A and B). Regional lithostratigraphy and biostratigraphy within the study interval are shown alongside isotope dilution–thermal ionization mass spectrometry dates retrieved by Rubidge et al., Botha et al., and Gastaldo et al. (37, 44, 80). The traditional (dashed red line) and associated PTB hypotheses for the Karoo Basin (37, 44) are also shown. Although traditionally associated with the PTB, the Daptocephalus–Lystrosaurus declivis Assemblage Zone boundary is defined by first appearances of co-occurring tetrapod assemblages, so its position relative to the three PTB hypotheses is unchanged. The Ripplemead member (*) has yet to be formalized by the South African Committee for Stratigraphy.Decades of research have demonstrated the richness of South Africa’s Karoo Basin fossil record, resulting in hundreds of stratigraphically well-documented tetrapod fossils across the PTT (37, 39, 56). This wealth of data has been used qualitatively to identify three extinction phases and an apparent early postextinction recovery phase (39, 45, 51). Furthermore, studies of Karoo community structure and function have elucidated the potential role of the extinction and subsequent recovery in breaking the incumbency of previously dominant clades, including synapsids (11, 57). Nevertheless, understanding patterns of faunal turnover and recovery during the PTT has been limited by the scarcity of quantitative investigations. Previous quantitative studies used coarsely sampled data (i.e., assemblage zone scale, 2 to 3 Ma time intervals) to identify low species richness immediately after the main extinction, potentially associated with multiple “boom and bust” cycles of primary productivity based on δ¹³C variation during the first 5 My of the Triassic (41, 58). However, many details of faunal dynamics in this interval remain unknown. Here, we investigate the dynamics of this major tetrapod extinction at an unprecedented time resolution (on the order of hundreds of thousands of years), using sample-standardized methods to quantify multiple aspects of regional change across the Cistecephalus, Daptocephalus, and Lystrosaurus declivis assemblage zones.