On the effectiveness of early life cycle defect prediction with Bayesian Nets

Standard practice in building models in software engineering normally involves three steps: collecting domain knowledge (previous results, expert knowledge); building a skeleton of the model based on step 1 including as yet unknown parameters; estimating the model parameters using historical data. Our experience shows that it is extremely difficult to obtain reliable data of the required granularity, or of the required volume with which we could later generalize our conclusions. Therefore, in searching for a method for building a model we cannot consider methods requiring large volumes of data. This paper discusses an experiment to develop a causal model (Bayesian net) for predicting the number of residual defects that are likely to be found during independent testing or operational usage. The approach supports (1) and (2), does not require (3), yet still makes accurate defect predictions (an R ² of 0.93 between predicted and actual defects). Since our method does not require detailed domain knowledge it can be applied very early in the process life cycle. The model incorporates a set of quantitative and qualitative factors describing a project and its development process, which are inputs to the model. The model variables, as well as the relationships between them, were identified as part of a major collaborative project. A dataset, elicited from 31 completed software projects in the consumer electronics industry, was gathered using a questionnaire distributed to managers of recent projects. We used this dataset to validate the model by analyzing several popular evaluation measures (R ², measures based on the relative error and Pred). The validation results also confirm the need for using the qualitative factors in the model. The dataset may be of interest to other researchers evaluating models with similar aims. Based on some typical scenarios we demonstrate how the model can be used for better decision support in operational environments. We also performed sensitivity analysis in which we identified the most influential variables on the number of residual defects. This showed that the project size, scale of distributed communication and the project complexity cause the most of variation in number of defects in our model. We make both the dataset and causal model available for research use.     

Reactive path integral quantum simulations of molecules solvated in superfluid helium

A hybrid ab initio   path integral molecular dynamics/bosonic path integral Monte Carlo simulation method has been developed, implemented and tested, which allows for the reactive simulations of molecules, clusters or complexes solvated by superfluid ⁴${}^4$He. The simulation takes into account “on-the-fly” the electronic structure and thus the chemical reactivity of the solutes, in conjunction with the Bose–Einstein statistics, and thus the superfluid character of this peculiar solvent. This enables investigations into cryochemical reactions taking place in helium nanodroplets, such as those used in helium nanodroplet isolation (HENDI) spectroscopy.     

Synthesis and properties of some 9,10-dihydro-7H-imidazo[1,2-b]benz[d,e]isoquinolin-7-one derivatives

The various routes of synthesis of some methoxy- and acetylamino-9,10-dihydro-7H-imidazo[1,2-b]benz[d,e]isoquinolin-7-one derivatives are described. The mixtures of geometric isomers obtained were separated and the chemical constitution of individual isomers was confirmed by the u.v., i.r., n.m.r. and mass spectroscopy. The fluorescence properties of individual isomers were also determined.     

Grain Size Variation in Coatings

An increase in grain size during deposition occurs in physical vapor deposition. Columnar grain structures result as the coating thickens beyond the point of constant grain size (>25 μm). As the deposition is taking place, the grain size of the Ti coating increases from that on the order of 0.01 (Jim to that greater than 1.0 μm. At a certain critical thickness during deposition, t_c, the grain size stabilizes. This study examines the minimum coating thickness required to produce the ultimate grain size. Then this investigation relates the critical thickness to the texture of the coating.     

Hydrophilic polycarbonate chips for generation of oil-in-water (O/W) and water-in-oil-in-water (W/O/W) emulsions

Modification of the surfaces of polycarbonate (PC) with the use of a solution of tin (II) chloride renders them hydrophilic. The surface draping is stable against exposure to water and to alcohols. Exposure to alkanes reduces but does not diminish the effect. The method is compatible—in using the same solvent and temperature—with the hydrophobic modification of PC Jankowski et al. ( Lab Chip 11:748–752, 2011). The combination of these methods makes it possible to generate single and multiple monodisperse emulsions with the use of flow-focusing junctions in systems made in PC—material that is suitable for fabrication of multilayer, high throughput microfluidic devices.     

Model Checking Games for the Quantitative μ-Calculus

We investigate quantitative extensions of modal logic and the modal μ-calculus, and study the question whether the tight connection between logic and games can be lifted from the qualitative logics to their quantitative counterparts. It turns out that, if the quantitative μ-calculus is defined in an appropriate way respecting the duality properties between the logical operators, then its model checking problem can indeed be characterised by a quantitative variant of parity games. However, these quantitative games have quite different properties than their classical counterparts, in particular they are, in general, not positionally determined. The correspondence between the logic and the games goes both ways: the value of a formula on a quantitative transition system coincides with the value of the associated quantitative game, and conversely, the values of quantitative parity games are definable in the quantitative μ-calculus.     

Formation and characterization of oxynitride glasses in the Si-Ca-Al-O-N and Si-Ca-Al,B-O-N systems

Oxynitride compositions in the Si-Ca-Al-O-N and Si-Ca-Al, B-O-N systems were melted and furnace-cooled in BN crucibles at temperatures from 1650 to 1850° C under dry nitrogen atmosphereS. Glass formation, phase stability and crystallization were studied by characterizing the cooled melts by X-ray diffraction, DTA, and electron microscopy. Oxynitride batches with nitrogen content up to 11 at % formed glasses in the Si-Ca-Al-O-N system. Glasses in the Si-Ca-Al, B-O-N system could be formed only when the B₂O₃ content of the batch was less than 3 wt %. Oxynitride glasses in these boron-containing systems were characteristically inhomogeneous, difficult to process, and prone to crystallization. In both the systems, glasses exhibited glass transitions beginning at 1000° C and crystallization at 1300 to 1500° C. Nitrogen-containing crystalline phases were identified in devitrified glasses via microstructural and micro-mechanical analyses.