Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

建设长春国际陆港区的探讨

在国务院《东北振兴规划》和国家海关总署新的报关模式背景下,文章提出了建设长春国际陆港区的设想,并进行了必要性和可行性的分析。在对长春国际陆港区的概念设计的基础上,提出了建设长春国际陆港区的基本依据,进而提出了以长春铁路货运口岸的改造升级和龙嘉国际机场完善功能为核心,建设长春内陆港,再构筑内陆港特色经济区的设想。最后对建设长春国际陆港区存在的问题进行了思考。     

从税收电子技术应用看政府上网问题及对策

政府上网不仅是新的技术工具的获得和经营模式的改变,更重要的是政府要用信息技术向社会提供更有效的服务.税收信息化即是电子技术在税收工作中的具体应用.     

电子商务:经济发展的新税源

随着我国电子商务行政管理机构的确立,我国电子商务发展已经初具规模,政策法规已初步完善.预计十五期间,网络规模将迅速发展,电子政务将迅速普及,数字化生活将迅速推广,电子商务将成为21世纪人类信息世界的核心、新型的经济贸易形式和新的经济增长点,也必将成为税收制度建设的新税源.     

虚拟财务管理研究

为了适应全球经济一体化的新形势，使财务管理满足国际化的要求，文章提出了虚拟财务管理概念，阐述了虚拟财务管理的特点及其与传统财务管理的区别，论述了虚拟财务管理的基本内容，分析了实现虚拟财务管理存在的障碍和困难并提出了改进建议。     

约翰·拉格里奇:活跃于环球的投资家与学者(二)--投资学掀开生活的红盖头

投资!当人们手里握着余钱的时候，多数会口里喊着或心里念着：投资!——特别是在这个时代的中国，财富神话每时每刻都在上演，渴望在市场上逮住机会的人们，对于投资，是如此的热衷!但是“真理”掌握在少数人手里。这个“真理”，就是投资之道；那些近年赚得盆满钵盈的机构投资和管理们，他们运作大资金的智慧，往往能为我们的“投资”之道点燃一把火。[编按]     

对徐志摩的再认识--试论茅盾的《徐志摩论》

文章结合徐志摩的诗文和个人生活经历，对茅盾的《徐志摩论》进行了重新认识和评价，深刻剖析了徐志摩思想、行为，进而得出了客观公允的评价，认为其为爱国的纯情诗人。     

"二次剥离"撩开"森豪"骗贷黑幕

2004年10月,审计署武汉特派办在对信达资产管理公司审计时,正值该公司通过公开竞标,收购了中国银行、中国建设银行和交通银行改制重组中"第二次剥离"的不良资产.