Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Evaluation of image processing methods for geological interpretation in the different environments in Libya

This study evaluates the use of image processing techniques and methodologies of digital integration of multi-disciplinary geoscientific data to reduce the ambiguity in geological interpretations in different geological environments in Libya. To realize this objective, three areas were selected for this study; Eljufra, an arid environment; the mountainous environment Tarhunah; and the Jifara Plain, a coastal plain environment. Two types of remote sensing data were used in this study: Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and European Remote Sensing Satellite. The digital elevation model extracted from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and digital topographic maps scale 1:50,000 were used for remote sensing interpretation. GIS and remote sensing-based methods were used to process and integrate all raster and vector layers data. This study offered dramatic benefits for geological interpretations and provided new insights into the efficiency of image processing methods in different geological environments.     

Spatial Variation in the Structure of Kelp Forest Communities Along a Wave Exposure Gradient

Abstract. Four sites were sampled in kelp (Macrocysiis pyrifera) forests occupying rocky bottom habitats along a wave exposure gradient in central California. Consistent betwecn-site differences were found in the three major structural elements - the surface canopy, the undcrstory assemblage, and the ground cover/turf assemblage - of kelp forest communities. Macrocysiis pyrifera was found at all four sites. Nereucyslis tuelkeana only at the most exposed site. The understory kelps Laminaria setchellii and Pterygopltora californica were also characteristic of exposed sites. Articulated coralline algae were more abundant at exposed sites than protected, while fleshy red algae showed the opposite pattern. All four study sites were located along 8.5 km of coastline, and thus were assumed to have available to them the same species pool for colonization. The substrate composition was the same and the amount of unconsolidated substrate was similar at all four sites. We suggest that exposure to wave-generated water motion, through its influence on the surface canopy and therefore on the amount of light reaching the bottom, is responsible for these between-site differences.     

Anthropogenic trace metals in an ice core at Vestfonna,Svalbard, Norway

1　IntroductionAnicecoreobtainedfrom polarglaciersoricesheetsisoneofthemostimportantarchivestoreconstructpaleoclimaticandpaleoatmosphericcondition .Informationonpale o environmentcanbeextractedfromicecoresaschemicaland/orphysicalsignals.Amongthechemicalsignals,heavymetalsarenotedassignalsofterrestrialenvironmentalchangeandanthropogenicpollution (e.g .Murozumietal.1 969;NgandPatterson 1 981 ;Hongetal.1 994) .SinceconcentrationsofmostofthemetalsinpolarsnowincentralGreen landareatorbelowthepptl…     

Phytoplankton productivity in the western subarctic gyre of the North Pacific in early summer 2006

We deployed a profiling buoy system incorporating a fast repetition rate fluorometer in the western subarctic Pacific and carried out time-series observations of phytoplankton productivity from 9 June to 15 July 2006. The chlorophyll a (Chl a) biomass integrated over the euphotic layer was as high as 45–50 mg Chl a m⁻² in the middle of June and remained in the 30–40 mg Chl a m⁻² range during the rest of observation period; day-to-day variation in Chl a biomass was relatively small. The daily net primary productivity integrated over the euphotic layer ranged from 144 to 919 mg C m⁻² day⁻¹ and varied greatly, depending more on insolation rather than Chl a biomass. In addition, we found that part of primary production was exported to a 150-m depth within 2 days, indicating that the variations in primary productivity quickly influenced the organic carbon flux from the upper ocean. Our results suggest that the short-term variability in primary productivity is one of the key factors controlling the carbon cycle in the surface ocean in the western subarctic Pacific.     

Sequence of faulting and deformation during the 2000 eruptions of the Usu Volcano, Hokkaido, Japan—interpretation and image analyses of aerial photographs

Significant faulting and deformation of the ground surface has been rarely known during volcanic eruptions. Usu Volcano, Hokkaido, Japan, is a unique example of deformation due to felsic magma intrusion. Usu Volcano has a history of such types of eruptions as phreatic, pumice eruption (Plinian type), pyroclastic flowing and lava doming since 1663. On March 31, 2000, phreatomagmatic to phreatic eruptions took place after 23 years of dormancy in the western piedmont, followed by explosions on the western flank of Usu Volcano. They were associated with significant deformation including faulting and uplift. The eruptions and deformation were continuing up to the end of May 2000.We identified the faulting using total nine sets of aerial photographs taken from before the eruption (March 31, 2000) to more than 1 year (April 27, 2001) after the end of the activity, and traced deformation processes through image processing using aerial photographs. We found that some of the new faults and the associated phreatic eruptions were related to old faults formed during the 1977–1981 eruptive episode.The image processing has revealed that the surface deformation is coincident with the area of faulting forming small grabens and the phreatic explosion vents. However, the faulting and main explosive eruptions did not take place in the highest uplift area, but along the margin. This suggests that the faulting and explosive activities were affected by small feeder channels diverging from the main magma body which caused the highest uplift.     

Biogeochemical Variation in Dimethylsulfide, Phytoplankton Pigments and Heterotrophic Bacterial Production in the Subarctic North Pacific during Summer

Dimethylsulfide (DMS), chlorophyll a (Chl-a), accessory pigments (fucoxanthin, peridinin and 19-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin), and bacterial production (BP) were measured in the surface layer (0–100 m) of the subarctic North Pacific, including the Bering Sea, during summer (14 July–5 September, 1997). In surface sewater, the concentrations of DMS and Chl-a varied widely from 1.3 to 13.2 nM (5.1 ± 3.0 nM, mean ± S.D., n = 48) and from 0.1 to 2.4 µg L^–1 (0.6 ± 0.6 µg L^–1, n = 24), respectively. In the subarctic North Pacific, DMS to Chl-a ratios (DMS/Chl-a) were higher on the eastern side than the western side (p < 0.0001). Below the euphotic zone, DMS/Chl-a ratios were law and the correlation between DMS and Chl-a was relatively strong (r ² = 0.700, n = 27, p < 0.0001). In the euphotic zone, DMS/Chl-a ratios were higher and the correlation between DMS and Chl-a was weak (r ² = 0.128, n = 50, p = 0.01). The wide variation in DMS/Chl-a ratios would be at least partially explained by the geographic variation in the taxonomic composition of phytoplankton, because of the negative correlation between DMS/Chl-a and fucoxanthin-to-Chl-a ratios (Fuc/Chl-a) (r ² = 0.476, n = 26, p = 0.0001). Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between DMS and BP (r ² = 0.380, n = 19, p = 0.005). This suggests that BP did not represent DMS and dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) removal by bacterial consumption but rather DMSP degradation to DMS by bacterial enzyme.