A stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed

We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.     

Quiet-time periods observed by EPHIN/SOHO during the minimum of the 22nd solar cycle

An analysis of the hydrogen and helium isotopic composition from EPHIN data, during the quiet-time period from January 1 to June 1, 1996, is presented. An isotopic discrimination and background rejection have been applied and relationships between the abundances of ²H/¹H, ³He/⁴He, and ⁴He/¹H have been calculated. The energy spectra in the 4–50 MeV nucl^–1 range have been obtained and the contribution of the different spectral components have been analysed in this energy range. We conclude that the main contribution to the ⁴He spectrum is of anomalous origin, while the proton and ³He spectra have contributions mainly from particles of solar origin at low energies and from the galactic cosmic radiation modulated by the heliosphere at high energies. The deuterium spectrum is mainly of galactic origin.     

Bioerosion and encrustation rates in recent mollusk death assemblages on a supratidal siliciclastic setting,Playa Norte,Veracruz State,Mexico

This study presents both qualitative and quantitative data regarding marine mollusk (gastropods and bivalves) shell bioerosion and encrustation based on death assemblages obtained from a recent supratidal environment in Playa Norte, Veracruz State. The objectives of this study were to assess the nature of bioerosion and encrustation processes and to investigate the role of these taphonomic features contributing to the deterioration of natural shell accumulations within a tropical siliciclastic tidal environment. The assemblage comprises 31 species: 13 gastropods and 18 bivalves. The bioerosion and encrustation degrees were low to moderate for both types. The most abundant traces were predatory gastropod structures (Oichnus paraboloides and O. simplex), whereas sponge borings (Entobia isp.), polychaete dwellings (Caulostrepsis taeniola), and echinoid raspings (Gnatichnus isp.) were less frequent. The encrusting organisms include polychaete serpulids, bryozoans, and rare foraminifers (Homotrema rubrum). Because of the low bioerosion and encrustation degrees occurring in this area, accumulation is expected to predominate over biotic destruction. As deposition conditions (richly fossiliferous carbonate sandstone beds) were similar to those prevailing in the Tuxpan Formation during the Miocene (Langhian), it is suggested that this study provides an equivalent reference to interpret mollusk fossil assemblages located in this site.     

Pockmarks on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar: formation from overpressured shallow contourite gas reservoirs and internal wave action during the last glacial sea-level lowstand?

Integrating novel and published swath bathymetry (3,980 km²), as well as chirp and high-resolution 2D seismic reflection profiles (2,190 km), this study presents the mapping of 436 pockmarks at water depths varying widely between 370 and 1,020 m on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar. On the Atlantic side in the south-eastern Gulf of Cádiz near the Camarinal Sill, 198 newly discovered pockmarks occur in three well localized and separated fields: on the upper slope (n=14), in the main channel of the Mediterranean outflow water (MOW, n=160), and on the huge contourite levee of the MOW main channel (n=24) near the well-known TASYO field. These pockmarks vary in diameter from 60 to 919 m, and are sub-circular to irregularly elongated or lobate in shape. Their slope angles on average range from 3° to 25°. On the Mediterranean side of the strait on the Ceuta Drift of the western Alborán Basin, where pockmarks were already known to occur, 238 pockmarks were identified and grouped into three interconnected fields, i.e. a northern (n=34), a central (n=61) and a southern field (n=143). In the latter two fields the pockmarks are mainly sub-circular, ranging from 130 to 400 m in diameter with slope angles averaging 1.5° to 15°. In the northern sector, by contrast, they are elongated up to 1,430 m, probably reflecting MOW activity. Based on seismo-stratigraphic interpretation, it is inferred that most pockmarks formed during and shortly after the last glacial sea-level lowstand, as they are related to the final erosional discontinuity sealed by Holocene transgressive deposits. Combining these findings with other existing knowledge, it is proposed that pockmark formation on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar resulted from gas and/or sediment pore-water venting from overpressured shallow gas reservoirs entrapped in coarse-grained contourites of levee deposits and Pleistocene palaeochannel infillings. Venting was either triggered or promoted by hydraulic pumping associated with topographically forced internal waves. This mechanism is analogous to the long-known effect of tidal pumping on the dynamics of unit pockmarks observed along the Norwegian continental margin.     

Laboratory studies on the sputtering contribution to the sodium atmospheres of Mercury and the Moon

To ascertain the importance of sputtering by solar wind ions on the formation of a sodium exosphere around Mercury and the Moon, we have irradiated with 4 keV He ions, the Na bearing tectosilicates: albite, labradorite, and anorthoclase, as well as adsorbed Na layers deposited on albite and on olivine (a neosilicate that does not contain Na). Sodium at the surface and near surface (<40 Å) was quantified with X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy before and after each irradiation to determine the depletion cross section. We measured a cross section for sputtering of Na adsorbed on mineral surfaces, σ_s ≈ 1 × 10^?15 cm² atom^?1. In addition, mass spectrometric analyses of the sputtered flux show that a large fraction of the Na is sputtered as ions rather than as neutral atoms. These results have strong implications for modeling the sodium population within the mercurian and the lunar exospheres.     

Analysis of horizontal and vertical ring structure based on analytical model and satellite data: Application to the North Brazil Current Rings

A theoretical analysis of the principal oceanic ring parameters (tangential and angular velocities, shape function, horizontal and vertical scale of the ring) is described. The theoretical model consists of a reduced gravity model of the lens-like vortices with solid body rotation. The application of this approach is tested by comparison with data from the North Brazil Current Rings Experiment and remote sensing data. Specifically, we used the data corresponding to the surfaceintensified North Brazil Current ring (R-3) surveyed in February–March 1999, using direct velocity and hydrographical measurements. The theoretical model was used for evaluating the geometrical structure of the surface-intensified rings that produce remarkable signals in satellite data. The principal ring parameters from the model were compared with those from satellite data (altimetry and drifter information), which were estimated by using the method of minimization of the multivariable objective functions. Although the proposed model is linear in its conception, a good agreement was observed between the model and the primary characteristics of the observed rings. The model, however, allows for improvement in its assumptions, since its application is rather limited to intense ocean rings.     

Geophysical exploration on the subsurface geology of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field (NE Iberian Peninsula)

We applied self-potential (SP) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to the exploration of the uppermost part of the substrate geology and shallow structure of La Garrotxa monogenetic volcanic field, part of the European Neogene–Quaternary volcanic province. The aim of the study was to improve knowledge of the shallowest part of the feeding system of these monogenetic volcanoes and of its relationship with the subsurface geology. This study complements previous geophysical studies carried out at a less detailed scale and aimed at identifying deeper structures, and together will constitute the basis to establish volcanic susceptibility in La Garrotxa. SP study complemented previous smaller-scale studies and targeted key areas where ERT could be conducted. The main new results include the generation of resistivity models identifying dykes and faults associated with several monogenetic cones. The combined results confirm that shallow tectonics controlling the distribution of the foci of eruptive activity in this volcanic zone mainly correspond to NNW–SSE and accessorily by NNE–SSW Neogene extensional fissures and faults and concretely show the associated magmatic intrusions. These structures coincide with the deeper ones identified in previous studies, and show that previous Alpine tectonic structures played no apparent role in controlling the loci of this volcanism. Moreover, the results obtained show that the changes in eruption dynamics occurring at different vents located at relatively short distances in this volcanic area are controlled by shallow stratigraphical, structural and hydrogeological differences underneath these monogenetic volcanoes.