Economic benefits from decreased mercury emissions: Projections for 2020

Anthropogenic processes have increased the exposure of humans and wildlife to toxic methyl mercury (MeHg). Mercury emissions will increase by about 25% between 2005 and 2020, if the present trajectory is maintained. A global assessment of societal damages caused by the ingestion of methyl mercury, based merely on loss of IQ (Intelligence Quotient), suggests that the annual cost will be approximately US$3.7 billion (2005 dollars) in 2020. The corresponding cost of damages resulting from the inhalation of methyl mercury is estimated at US$2.9 million (2005 dollars). Under a higher degree of emission control such as in the case of the Extended Emission Control (EXEC) and the Maximum Feasible Technological Reduction (MFTR) scenarios, total emissions could decrease in the period 2005–2020 by about 50–60%. The corresponding annual benefits in 2020 are estimated to be about US$1.8–2.2 billion (2005 dollars). Large economic benefits can be achieved by reducing global mercury emissions.     

Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

Look before you leap - individual variation in social vigilance shapes socio-spatial group properties in an agent-based model

Next to predator detection, primate vigilance also serves to keep track of relevant conspecifics. The degree of vigilance towards group members often reflects the dominance rank of an individual: subordinates pay attention to dominants. Although it has been suggested that subordinates' vigilance may result in spatial centrality of dominants, this has not been addressed in either empirical or modeling studies. Using agent-based models, we determined how social vigilance affects socio-spatial properties of primate groups. A basic model without social vigilance, where individuals avoid potential aggressors (avoidance model), was contrasted with two models that each additionally included a different type of social vigilance: a) monitoring a specific potential aggressor to remain informed on its whereabouts (monitoring model) or b) scanning the whole group to detect potential aggressors (scanning model). Adding monitoring or scanning behavior to the avoidance model reinforced spatial centrality of dominants, a pattern often observed in primates, and resulted in more spread out groups. Moreover, variation in scanning tendency alone was already sufficient to generate spatial centrality of dominants: frequently scanning subordinates could move further away from the group center than dominants, before losing sight of group members. In the monitoring model, two mechanisms caused decreased encounter frequencies among subordinates: a) increased inter-individual distances, and b) frequent monitoring of central dominants. In the scanning model, encounters among subordinates decreased due to increased inter-individual distances. This agent-based model study provides a clear indication that individual variation in social vigilance may be an important structuring feature of primate social groups.     

Singing activity stimulates partner reproductive investment rather than increasing paternity success in zebra finches

Song is used as a signal in sexual selection in a wide range of taxa. In birds, males of many species continue to sing after pair formation. It has been suggested that a high song output after pair formation might serve to attract extra-pair females and to minimise their own partner’s interest in extra-pair copulations. A non-exclusive alternative function that has received only scant attention is that the amount of song might stimulate the own female’s investment into eggs in a quantitative way. We address these hypotheses in a captive population of zebra finches, Taeniopygia guttata, by relating male undirected song output (i.e. non-courtship song) to male egg siring success and female reproductive investment in two different set-ups. When allowed to breed in aviaries, males with the highest song output were no more attractive than others to females in an analysis of 4,294 extra-pair courtships involving 164 different males, and they also did not sire more offspring (both trends were against the expectation). When breeding in cages with two different partners subsequently, females produced larger eggs with more orange yolks when paired to a male with a high song output. These findings suggest that singing activity in paired zebra finch males might primarily function to stimulate the partner and not to attract extra-pair females.     

Availability of 99Tc in undisturbed soil cores

Models for safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories need accurate values of the soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides. In oxidizing environments, (99)Tc is expected to occur as pertechnetate ((99)TcO(4)(-)). Due to its high mobility, leaching of this element in the field might be important, potentially affecting the reliability of estimated transfer parameters of (99)Tc as measured in closed experimental systems such as hydroponics or pot experiments. The aim of this experiment was to measure the leaching of (99)Tc in undisturbed irrigated soil cores under cultivation as well as plant uptake and to study the possible competition between the two transfer pathways. Undisturbed soil cores (50 x 50 cm) were sampled from a Rendzic Leptosol (R), a colluvial Fluvic Cambisol (F) and a Dystric Cambisol (D) using PVC tubes (three cores sampled per soil type). Each core was equipped with a leachate collector at the bottom, allowing the monitoring of (99)Tc leaching through the cores. Cores were placed in a greenhouse and maize (Zea mays L., cv. DEA, Pioneer) was sown. After 135 d, maize was harvested and radioactivity determined in both plant and water samples. Results showed that during the growing period, leaching of (99)Tc was limited, due to the high evapotranspiration rate of maize. After harvest, leaching of (99)Tc went on because of the absence of evapotranspiration. Effective uptake (EU) of (99)Tc in leaves and grains was calculated. EU reached 70% of the input in the leaves and was not significantly different among soils. These results confirmed those obtained from pot experiments, even though leaching was allowed to occur in close-to-reality hydraulical conditions. As a consequence, it was concluded that pot experiments are an adequate surrogate for more complex "close-to-reality" experimental systems for measuring transfer factors.     

Plant Phenology in Western Canada: Trends and Links to the View From Space

One feature of climate change is the trends to earlier spring onset in many north temperate areas of the world. The timing of spring flowering and leafing of perennial plants is largely controlled by temperature accumulation; both temperature and phenological records illustrate changes in recent decades. Phenology studies date back over a century, with extensive databases existing for western Canada. Earlier spring flowering has been noted for many woody plants, with larger trends seen for species that develop at spring's start. Implications for ecosystems of trends to earlier spring arrival include changes in plant species composition, changes in timing and distribution of pests and disease, and potentially disrupted ecological interactions. While Alberta has extensive phenology databases (for species, years, and geographic coverage) for recent decades, these data cannot provide continuous ground coverage. There is great potential for phenological data to provide ground validation for satellite imagery interpretation, especially as new remote sensors are becoming available. Phenological networks are experiencing a resurgence of interest in Canada (www.plantwatch.ca) and globally, and linking these ground-based observations with the view from space will greatly enhance our capacity to track the biotic response to climate changes.     

The role of analogues in radioecology

If no data are available for a specific radionuclide its analogue could be used in radioecological models. They might be used not only in the frame of screening modelling. Relevant processes and features have to be known, such as time scales of these processes, physical, chemical and biological properties of the environment and relevant media. An analogue could only be proven to be valid by comparing its behaviour in the conditions of interest, while confidence in the validity of an analogue will increase as the quality of the justification increases, there will always be some residual uncertainty. Several main types of analogy can be used when measured or recommended values are not available: the same parameter obtained for another isotope of the same element; the same parameter obtained for another element; a different parameter obtained for the same element. There are several cases, when analogues might be applied as indicators of the determining processes in the radioecological studies.     

New measurements of cyanobacterial toxins in natural waters using high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry

The presence and levels of the cyanobacterial toxins microcystin-LR, anatoxin-a, and cylindrospermopsin were measured in various Wisconsin waters where algal nuisance or bloom conditions were noted. Out of 74 samples analyzed, 36 had detectable levels of microcystin-LR (49%), and four had detectable levels of anatoxin-a (5%). Cylindrospermopsin, the toxin produced by Cylindrospermopsis (a warm water species that has been moving its range northward, including to Wisconsin), was not detected in the field samples tested. Concentrations of microcystin-LR ranged from 1.2 to 7600 microg L(-1). Anatoxin-a ranged from 0.68 to 1750 microg L(-1), which is the highest concentration reported from around the world. Cyanobacterial toxins, because of their high potency, deserve continued scrutiny by resource managers and public health officials responsible for recreational waters.