Moral reasoning in adaptation to climate change

Moral foundations theory argues that moral reasoning is widely observed and fundamental to the legitimacy of relevant governance and policy interventions. A new analytical framework to examine and test how moral reasoning underpins and legitimizes governance and practice on adaptation to climate change risks is proposed. It develops a typology of eight categories of vulnerability-based and system-based moral reasoning that pertain to the dilemmas around adaptation and examines the prevalence of these moral categories in public discourse about specific adaptation issues. The framework is tested using data on climate change impact, adaptation, and societal responsibility, drawn from 14 focus groups comprising 148 participants across the UK. Participants consistently use moral reasoning to explain their views on climate adaptation; these include both vulnerability-based and system-based framings. These findings explain public responses to adaptation options and governance, and have implications for the direction of adaptation policy, including understanding which types of reasoning support politically legitimate interventions.     

Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

Economic growth,biodiversity loss and conservation effort

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis.     

Methane fluxes from artificial wetlands: A global appraisal

Methane emissions make an important contribution to the enhanced greenhouse effect, emissions from rice growing being one of its major anthropogenic sources. The estimation of global fluxes of methane from rice and from coarse fiber production depends on extrapolating observed data across countries and agroclimatic zones: the estimates are therefore imprecise. We present a revised estimate of global emissions of 96 Tg CH₄/yr, given 1991 rice areas, and 1991 production data for those tropical coarse fibers that also produce methane under anaerobic conditions. This is higher than many previous studies, which systematically underestimated the fluxes from tropical countries. As the world's population increases, the demand for rice will rise. This demand can only be satisfied through greater rice production, either by bringing new areas into rice growing or by using the present area more intensively. Strategies based on improved water management and fertilizer use will allow increased rice production and yields and reduce the methane flux per unit or rice production.     

Migration,remittances, livelihood trajectories,and social resilience

We argue that all aspects of demographic change, including migration, impact on the social resilience of individuals and communities, as well as on the sustainability of the underlying resource base. Social resilience is the ability to cope with and adapt to environmental and social change mediated through appropriate institutions. We investigate one aspect of the relationship between demographic change, social resilience, and sustainable development in contemporary coastal Vietnam: the effects of migration and remittances on resource-dependent communities in population source areas. We find, using longitudinal data on livelihood sources, that emigration and remittances have offsetting effects on resilience within an evolving social and political context. Emigration is occurring concurrently with, not driving, the expansion of unsustainable coastal aquaculture. Increasing economic inequality also undermines social resilience. At the same time diversification and increasing income levels are beneficial for resilience.     

人口迁徙、汇款、生活轨迹及社会应变能力

我们认为,人口变化的方方面面,包括迁徙,都影响个人和团体的社会应变能力以及基本资源基础的可持续性.社会应变能力是应对和适应通过适当的制度调节的环境和社会变化的能力.我们调查了当今越南沿海地区人口变化、社会应变能力以及可持续发展之间关系的一个侧面:迁徙和汇款对依赖于资源的人口源区居民群的影响.利用有关生活来源的纵向运动数据,我们发现移民出境和汇款对一个逐渐形成的社会和政治范围内的应变能力有抵消作用.移民出境是与不可持续的沿海养殖业的发展同时并存的,而不是起推动作用.日益增加的经济不平等削弱了社会应变能力.同时,多种经营和收入水平的不断提高有助于应变能力的增强.     

Book reviews

Local Politics and Participation in Britain and France

Albert Mabileau, George Moyser, Gerraint Parry, Patrick Quantin. 1989. 281 pp. Price £30.00.

ISBN: 0 521 34576 6.

The Rural State?: Limits to Planning in Rural Society

Paul Cloke and Jo Little. 1990, Oxford University Press. 287 pp.

Price £30.00.

ISBN: 0 19 823287 X

Urbanisation in History: A Process of Dynamic Interactions. International Studies in Demography.

Edited by Ad van der Woude, Jan de Vries, and Akira Hayami. Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1990. 371 pp. Price £40.00.

Housing and Social Inequality

Jenny Morris and Martin Winn

Integrated Land‐Use and Transport Modelling — Decision Chains and Hierarchies

Tomas de la Barra

Beyond Green Belts — Managing Urban Growth in 21st Century

Regional Studies Association (1990). 64 pp. Price £9.95.

Learning from Rotterdam

M. J. Vroom and J. H. A. Meeus.

173 pp. Nichols, New York. Price £25.

Reviewing the Quality of Environmental Statements

N. Lee and R. Colley

EIA Centre, University of Manchester, 1990.

Occasional Paper 25, 46 pp. Price: £3.00.

Knowledge and Public Policy: the search for meaningful indicators

Judith Innes. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick. 352 pp. Price: £16.95.

Urban Problems: An Applied Urban Analysis

Michael Pacione. Routledge, 1990.

Living with Inner City Policies: Two Essays on Inner City Life and Inner City Policies

Meryl Aldridge and John Edwards, Department of Social Policy, Royal Holloway and Bedford New College. Social Policy Papers No. 2, 1989.

Information Technology in Geography and Planning: including principles of GIS

Bracken and Webster, Routledge, London 1990. 444 pp.

Housing and Social Change in Europe and the USA

Michael Ball, Michael Harloe and Maartje Martens. Routledge, 222 pp. Price: £10.99.

Land and Property Development: Changing Context

Edited by Healey and Nabarro. 212 pp. Price: £39.50.     

Sustainable coastal resources management: principles and practice

Coastal zones are currently experiencing intense and sustained environmental pressures from a range of driving forces. Responsible agencies around the globe are seeking ways of better managing the causes and consequences of the environmental change process in coastal areas. This article discusses the basic principles underpinning a more integrated approach to coastal management, as well as the obstacles to its implementation in both developed and developing countries. The fulfilment of the goal of sustainable utilisation of coastal resources via integrated management is likely to prove to be difficult. Any successful strategy will have to encompass all the elements of management from planning and design through financing and implementation. An interdisciplinary analytical and operational approach is also required, combined with a more flexible and participatory institutional structure and emphasis to account for multiple stakeholders and resource demands. As historical and institutional perspectives as well as socio-economic and cultural contexts are also important, two case studies (based on UK and Vietnamese experiences) are presented in order to identify arguments and examine these aspects in more detail.     

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the Architecture of Entitlements

The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual model of vulnerability to climate change as the first step in appraising and understanding the social and economic processes which facilitate and constrain adaptation. Vulnerability as defined here pertains to individuals and social groups. It is the state of individuals, of groups, of communities defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. This proposed approach puts the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, thereby reversing the central focus of approaches to climate impact assessment based on impacts on and the adaptability of natural resources or ecosystems and which only subsequently address consequences for human well-being. The vulnerability or security of any group is determined by the availability of resources and, crucially, by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. This perspective extends the concept of entitlements developed within neo-classical and institutional economics. Within this conceptual framework, vulnerability can be seen as a socially-constructed phenomenon influenced by institutional and economic dynamics. The study develops proxy indicators of vulnerability related to the structure of economic relations and the entitlements which govern them, and shows how these can be applied to a District in coastal lowland Vietnam. This paper outlines the lessons of such an approach to social vulnerability for the assessment of climate change at the global scale. We argue that the socio-economic and biophysical processes that determine vulnerability are manifest at the local, national, regional and global level but that the state of vulnerability itself is associated with a specific population. Aggregation from one level to another is therefore not appropriate and global-scale analysis is meaningful only in so far as it deals with the vulnerability of the global community itself.     

Using expert elicitation to define successful adaptation to climate change

This paper develops definitions of adaptation and successful adaptation to climate change, with a view to evaluating adaptations. There is little consensus on the definition of adapting to climate change in existing debates or on the criteria by which adaptation actions can be deemed successful or sustainable. In this paper, a variant of the Delphi technique is used to elicit expert opinion on a definition of successful adaptation to climate change. Through an iterative process, expert respondents coalesced around a definition based on risk and vulnerability and agreed that a transparent and acceptable definition should reflect impacts on sustainability. According to the final definition, agreed by the Delphi panel, successful adaptation is any adjustment that reduces the risks associated with climate change, or vulnerability to climate change impacts, to a predetermined level, without compromising economic, social, and environmental sustainability.