Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Influence of alternate reproductive tactics and pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection on paternity and offspring performance in a lizard

Sexual selection theory predicts different optima for multiple mating in males and females. We used mating experiments and genetic paternity testing to disentangle pre- and postcopulatory mechanisms of sexual selection and alternate reproductive tactics in the highly promiscuous lizard Eulamprus heatwolei. Both sexes mated multiply: 30–60 % of clutches were sired by two to four fathers, depending on the experiment. Larger males sired more offspring when we allowed male contest competition: 52 % of large males but only 14 % of small males sired at least one offspring. In the absence of male contest competition, females mated promiscuously and there was no large male advantage: 80 % of large males and 90 % of small males sired at least one offspring, and there was no evidence for last-male precedence. Multiple mating did not yield obvious direct or indirect benefits to females. E. heatwolei represents a complex system in which males attempt to improve their fertility success by limiting rivals from access to females and through adopting alternate reproductive tactics. Conversely, females exhibit no obvious precopulatory mate choice but may influence fitness through postcopulatory means by either promoting sperm competition or through cryptic female choice. Our results support the hypothesis that female multiple mating in nonavian reptiles is best explained by the combined effect of mate encounter frequency and high benefits to males but low costs to females.     

‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon, Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

Does information of predators influence general wariness?

Antipredator behavior includes several qualitatively distinct activities, but few studies have determined the degree to which these activities are independent. If behaviors are not independent, then the nature of the relationship would illustrate potential performance constraints. We studied crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans) and first focused on acoustic predator discrimination. We measured time allocation before and after playback of one of three experimental treatments (peregrine falcons—Falco peregrinus, wedge-tailed eagles—Aquila audax, and crimson rosellas) to determine whether or not rosellas discriminated predators from non-predators, and specifically whether or not they discriminated large from small predators. We then focused on the decision to flee. We experimentally approached subjects and measured the distance at which they oriented to us (alert distance) and the distance at which they fled (flight initiation distance; FID). We found that rosellas could distinguish among predators; however, there was no effect on general wariness as measured by FID. These two processes of antipredator behavior may, thus, be independent.     

Predicting occurrence of juvenile shark habitat to improve conservation planning

Fishing and habitat degradation have increased the extinction risk of sharks, and conservation strategies recognize that survival of juveniles is critical for the effective management of shark populations. Despite the rapid expansion of marine protected areas (MPAs) globally, the paucity of shark‐monitoring data on large scales (100s–1000s km) means that the effectiveness of MPAs in halting shark declines remains unclear. Using data collected by baited remote underwater video systems (BRUVS) in northwestern Australia, we developed generalized linear models to elucidate the ecological drivers of habitat suitability for juvenile sharks. We assessed occurrence patterns at the order and species levels. We included all juvenile sharks sampled and the 3 most abundant species sampled separately (grey reef [Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos], sandbar [Carcharhinus plumbeus], and whitetip reef sharks [Triaenodon obesus]). We predicted the occurrence of juvenile sharks across 490,515 km² of coastal waters and quantified the representation of highly suitable habitats within MPAs. Our species‐level models had higher accuracy (? ≥ 0.69) and deviance explained (≥48%) than our order‐level model (? = 0.36 and deviance explained of 10%). Maps of predicted occurrence revealed different species‐specific patterns of highly suitable habitat. These differences likely reflect different physiological or resource requirements between individual species and validate concerns over the utility of conservation targets based on aggregate species groups as opposed to a species‐focused approach. Highly suitable habitats were poorly represented in MPAs with the most restrictions on extractive activities. This spatial mismatch possibly indicates a lack of explicit conservation targets and information on species distribution during the planning process. Non‐extractive BRUVS provided a useful platform for building the suitability models across large scales to assist conservation planning across multiple maritime jurisdictions, and our approach provides a simple for method for testing the effectiveness of MPAs.     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Tissue distribution of perfluoroalkyl acids and health status in wild Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) from Loskop Dam, Mpumalanga, South Africa

This study examined concentrations of 15 perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in tissues from male Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) collected at Loskop Dam, Mpumalanga, South Africa in 2014 and 2016. Nine of the 15 PFAAs were detected frequently and were included in statistical analysis and included two of the most commonly known PFAAs, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) (median, 41.6 ng/g) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) (median, 0.0825 ng/g). Of the tissues measured, plasma (2016 and 2014 median, 22.2 ng/g) contained the highest PFAA burden followed by (in descending order): liver (median, 11.6 ng/g), kidney (median, 9.04 ng/g), spleen (median, 5.92 ng/g), adipose (median, 2.54 ng/g), and muscle (median, 1.11 ng/g). Loskop Dam tilapia have been affected by an inflammatory disease of the adipose tissue known as pansteatitis, so this study also aimed to investigate relationships between PFAA tissue concentrations and incidence of pansteatitis or fish health status. Results revealed that healthy tilapia exhibited an overall higher (p-value < 0.05) PFAA burden than pansteatitis-affected tilapia across all tissues. Further analysis showed that organs previously noted in the literature to contain the highest PFAA concentrations, such as kidney, liver, and plasma, were the organs driving the difference in PFAA burden between the two tilapia groups. Care must be taken in the interpretations we draw from not only the results of our study, but also other PFAA measurements made on populations (human and wildlife alike) under differing health status.     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.     

Standard purity and response factors of perfluorinated compounds

It has been reported that the relative response factors of isotopically labeled standards and unlabeled standards of the same perfluorinated compounds could be different. Individual (100 ng mL^?1) solutions of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) were analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry under negative-ion electrospray to detect any impurities present down to 0.5%–0.1% relative to the major component. Purity of the standards ranged from approximately 86% to ≥ 97%. Standard solutions of unlabeled and isotopically labeled materials were analyzed to compare the response factors of isotopically labeled analytes versus their nonlabeled counterparts in three different matrices at equivalent concentrations: organic solvent (methanol), serum extract, and water present individually and concurrently. Not all labeled analytes have the same response factor as their nonlabeled complement, and in at least one case the matrix in which the standard is present may cause significant suppression of response. Standard solutions of electrochemical fluorination produced PFOA and PFOS were quantified under multiple reaction monitoring mode, using calibration curves prepared from standards consisting primarily of linear standards only. The use of linear only standards may cause under-prediction of concentrations, and that the working range of these standards may be limited.     

Distributional patterns of adult male loggerhead sea turtles (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Caretta caretta</Emphasis>) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral,Florida, USA during and after a major annual breeding aggregation

Satellite transmitters were attached to 25 reproductively active and four inactive adult male loggerhead sea turtles (86.6–107.0 cm SCLmin) captured from the Port Canaveral, FL, USA shipping channel to assess horizontal and vertical distributions. During the breeding period, male loggerheads aggregated (44% of 755 turtle days) in a 117.6 km² core area that encompassed the shipping channel. Median dive duration during the breeding period was 27 min (IQR = 15–42 min) and males spent 4% (IQR = 3–5%) of the time at the surface, with significantly shorter dives associated with reproductively active males. Migrant and resident males dispersed concurrently, with residents shifting > 30 km east across the continental shelf over a more protracted departure schedule than migrants. Dive duration and time spent at the surface increased through the fall. Cluster analysis revealed the strongest association for dive duration with sea state during and after the breeding period, with significantly longer dives during more turbulent conditions. In contrast, univariate associations with surface interval duration were not elucidated.