Development of a Computer Workstation for Famine Early Warning and Food Security

Beginning in 1990, the University of Arizona, Arizona Remote Sensing Center (ARSC) has been involved in a collaborative effort with the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Remote Sensing Center of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations in designing and developing an integrated computer workstation for famine early warning. The goal of the project is to provide food security analysts with a set of computer tools to manage a very large and diverse set of data for predicting the onset of food security emergencies for every country on Earth. The initial stage of the project involved the conceptual definition of system elements and the development of overall system architecture. We are now developing an open, flexible, and portable system designed to significantly assist the work of the analysts. System architecture provides a task-specific and user-friendly graphic user interface (GUI) within a Windows environment that will link image processing, geographic information system (GIS), spreadsheet, text, and graphics software packages into a single operational environment. A relational database management system (RDBMS) is serving as the back-end of the workstation to facilitate data storage and retrieval and as a means to preserve analysis methodologies.     

Demographic Analysis of Tree Colonization in a20-Year-Old Right-of-Way

Past tree colonization dynamics of a powerline-right-of-way (ROW) corridor in the Haut-Saint-Laurent region of Quebec was studied based on the present age distribution of its tree populations. This colonization study spans 20 years, from 1977 (ROW clearance) to 1996. The sampled quadrats were classified into six vegetation types. Tree colonization dynamics were interpreted in each type, and three distinct patterns were identified. (1) Communities adapted to acidic conditions were heavily colonized by Acer rubrum, at least for the last 12 years. (2) Communities adapted to mesic or to hydric conditions were more intensely colonized in the period 1985-1987 than in the following 9 years; this past success in tree colonization may have been caused by herbicide treatments, which could have facilitated tree establishment by damaging the herbaceous and shrub vegetation. (3) Cattail, vine-raspberry, and reed-dominated communities contained few tree individuals, with almost all trees establishing between 1979 and 1990; those three vegetation types appear as the most resistant to tree invasion in the ROW studied. This study supports the need for an integrated approach in ROW vegetation management, in which the selection of vegetation treatment methods would depend on the tree colonization dynamics in each vegetation type. Minimizing disturbances inflicted on ROW herbaceous and shrub covers should be the central strategy because disturbances jeopardize natural resistance to future tree invasion, except in communities adapted to acidic conditions where the existing vegetation does not prevent invasion by A. rubrum. Many trees are surviving the successive cutting operations by producing new sprouts each time, particularly in communities adapted to mesic and hydric conditions. In these cases, mechanical cutting should be replaced by a one-time stump-killing operation, to avoid repeated and unsuccessful treatments of the same individuals over time.     

Assessment of Effectiveness of Protection Strategies in Tanzania Based on a Decade of Survey Data for Large Herbivores

Abstract:  Considerable controversy surrounds the effectiveness of strictly protected areas that prohibit consumptive resource use. For Tanzania we compared temporal changes in densities of large herbivores among heavily protected national parks and game reserves, partially protected game-controlled areas, and areas with little or no protection. Comparisons based on surveys conducted in the late 1980s and early 1990s versus the late 1990s and early 2000s showed three consistent patterns across the country. First, significant declines in the densities of large herbivores between these two snapshots in time overwhelmingly outnumbered significant increases in all protection categories. Second, more species fared well (increased significantly or showed no significant change) in strictly protected national parks than in areas with partial or no protection and in heavily protected game reserves relative to areas with no protection. Third, significantly more species fared poorly (densities declined or were too low to detect a decline) than fared well in areas with partial or no protection. Our results show that although heavy protection was generally more effective in maintaining large herbivore populations than partial or no protection, continued long-term monitoring is needed in Tanzania to inform managers whether large herbivores are experiencing declining population trends even within heavily protected areas .     

China's Minerals Future: 1985–2005

China has embarked on major economic and social changes to revitalize the Chinese economy, increase labor productivity, and improve the material standard of living of the Chinese people. This paper assumes that China will achieve its goal of a per capita income of US$800 in 2000, open-door policies will be maintained, and nonfuel mineral commodity consumption will increase as GDP per capita increases. Projections are made of production, trade and consumption of 14 nonfuel minerals for the period 1985–2005. China is projected to increase its net imports to these 14 minerals from about US$5000 million in 1985 to about US$12000 million in constant dollars in 2005. China's investment climate will become more favorable for those multinational companies that bring with them clear comparative advantages in minerals exploration, mining and processing technologies and marketing, and are prepared to develop in-depth Chinese expertise.     

Comparison of Hydrology of Wetlands in Pennsylvania and Oregon (USA) as an Indicator of Transferability of Hydrogeomorphic (HGM) Functional Models Between Regions

The hydrogeomorphic (HGM) approach to wetland classification and functional assessment is becoming more widespread in the United States but its use has been limited by the length of time needed to develop appropriate data sets and functional assessment models. One particularly difficult aspect is the transferability among geographic regions of specific models used to assess wetland function. Sharing of models could considerably shorten development and implementation of HGM throughout the United States and elsewhere. As hydrology is the driving force behind wetland functions, we assessed the comparability of hydrologic characteristics of three HGM subclasses (slope, headwater floodplain, mainstem floodplain) using comparable long-term hydrologic data sets from different regions of the United States (Ridge and Valley Province in Pennsylvania and the Willamette Valley in Oregon). If hydrology by HGM subclass were similar between different geographic regions, it might be possible to more readily transfer extant models between those regions. We found that slope wetlands (typically groundwater-driven) had similar hydrologic characteristics, even though absolute details (such as depth of water) differed. We did not find the floodplain subclasses to be comparable, likely due to effects of urbanization in Oregon, regional differences in soils and, perhaps, climate. Slight differences in hydrology can shift wetland functions from those mediated by aerobic processes to those dominated by anaerobic processes. Functions such as nutrient cycling can be noticeably altered as a result. Our data suggest considerable caution in the application of models outside of the region for which they were developed.     

Saving Children During the Depression: Britain's Silent Emergency, 1919–1939

The health of a large section of the British population was more adversely affected by the interwar Depression than was acknowledged by official sources. Particular concern was aroused by the condition of women and children. Many new charitable bodies were formed in response to this problem, and these included Save the Children Fund. This paper gives an indication of the scale of the health problem, which was particularly severe in the areas of heavy industry and high unemployment. It then considers the role of charitable organisations in drawing attention to the severity of deprivation and campaigning for appropriate responses on the part of government. Although these pressure groups were energetic and professional in their campaigning, it is conceded that in the short term they exercised only limited influence. However, it is argued that they won the intellectual contest. Finally, it is pointed out that their policies came to be accepted during World War II; thereby organisations like Save the Children Fund contributed to laying the foundations of the modern welfare state.