Foresight science in conservation: Tools,barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-022-01786-0.     

Lanthanum cobaltite perovskite supported onto mesoporous zirconium dioxide: nature of active sites of VOC oxidation

Novel catalytic nano-sized materials based on LaCoO(x) perovskite nanoparticles incapsulated in the mesoporous matrix of zirconia were prepared, characterized by physicochemical methods and tested in complete methanol oxidation. LaCoO(x) nanoparticles were prepared inside the mesopores of ZrO(2) by decomposition of bimetallic La-Co glycine precursor complexes. The catalysts have been studied by diffuse-reflectance FTIR-spectroscopy using such probe molecules as CO, CD(3)CN and CDCl(3) to test low-coordinated metal ions. At low temperatures of decomposition of complexes (up to 400°C), low-coordinated Co(3+) ions predominate in the LaCoO(x) nanoparticles, whereas basically Co(2+) ions are found upon increasing the decomposition temperature to 600°C. The novel nano-sized perovskite catalysts exhibit a very high catalytic activity in the abatement of volatile organic compounds present in air, like methanol and light hydrocarbons.     

Effectiveness of tertiary treatment processes in removing different classes of emerging contaminants from domestic wastewater

● Different advanced treatment processes were tested for ECs removal from wastewater. ● UV radiation showed low to moderate removal for 5 of the 38 micropollutants. ● Among tested membrane processes, nanofiltration showed the better performance. ● The use of PAC achieved high or partially removal for 31 out of the 38 compounds. ● The environmental and economical evaluation of a pilot-scale PAC unit is suggested. In this work, 38 different organic emerging contaminants (ECs), belonging to various chemical classes such as pharmaceuticals (PhCs), endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs), benzotriazoles (BTRs), benzothiazoles (BTHs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), were initially identified and quantified in the biologically treated wastewater collected from Athens’ (Greece) Sewage Treatment Plant (STP). Processes already used in existing STPs such as microfiltration (MF), nanofiltration (NF), ultrafiltration (UF), UV radiation, and powdered activated carbon (PAC) were assessed for ECs’ removal, under the conditions that represent their actual application for disinfection or advanced wastewater treatment. The results indicated that MF removed only one out of the 38 ECs and hence it was selected as pretreatment step for the other processes. UV radiation in the studied conditions showed low to moderate removal for 5 out of the 38 ECs. NF showed better results than UF due to the smaller pore sizes of the filtration system. However, this enhancement was observed mainly for 8 compounds originating from the classes of PhCs and PFCs, while the removal of EDCs was not statistically significant. Among the various studied technologies, PAC stands out due to its capability to sufficiently remove most ECs. In particular, removal rates higher than 70% were observed for 9 compounds, 22 were partially removed, while 7 demonstrated low removal rates. Based on our screening experiments, future research should focus on scaling-up PAC in actual conditions, combining PAC with other processes, and conduct a complete economic and environmental assessment of the treatment.     

Environmental Impact Assessment of the Mining and Concentration Activities in the Kola Peninsula, Russia by Multidate Remote Sensing

On the Kola Peninsula, the mining and concentration industry exerts anthropogenic impact on the environment. Tailing dumps cause airborne pollution through dusting, and waterborne pollution due to direct dumping and accidental releases. The objectives were: (1) to analyse multidate satellite imagesfor 1964–1996 to assess the environmental pollution from themining and concentration activity in the Kola in temporal perspective; (2) to evaluate remote sensing methods for integrated environmental impact assessment. The area of mining and industrial sites steadily expands and amounted to 94 km² in 1996. The polluted water surface amounted to at least 150 km² through dumping in 1978 and to 106 km² in1986 due to dusting. Thus, the impact from the mining and concentration activity should be reconsidered as more significant than it was officially anticipated. In the past the main mechanism of pollution wasdirect dumping into the lakes. Currently and in future, airborne pollution after dusting storms will dominate. The effective recultivation of the tailing dumps will be a long-term process. For effective assessment of impacts from the mining and concentration industry, remote sensing methods should be complemented by in-situ measurements, fieldwork, and mathematical modelling.     

Effects of particle size on chemical speciation and bioavailability of copper to earthworms (Eisenia fetida) exposed to copper nanoparticles

To investigate the role of particle size on the oxidation, bioavailability, and adverse effects of manufactured Cu nanoparticles (NPs) in soils, we exposed the earthworm Eisenia ferida to a series of concentrations of commercially produced NPs labeled as 20- to 40-nm or < 100-nm Cu in artificial soil media. Effects on growth, mortality, reproduction, and expression of a variety of genes associated with metal homeostasis, general stress, and oxidative stress were measured. We also used X-ray absorption spectroscopy and scanning X-ray fluorescence microscopy to characterize changes in chemical speciation and spatial distribution of the NPs in soil media and earthworm tissues. Exposure concentrations of Cu NPs up to 65 mg kg(-1) caused no adverse effects on ecologically relevant endpoints. Increases in metallothionein expression occurred at concentrations exceeding 20 mg kg(-1) of Cu NPs and concentrations exceeding 10 mg kg(-1) of CuSO4. Based on the relationship of Cu tissue concentration to metallothionein expression level and the spatial distribution and chemical speciation of Cu in the tissues, we conclude that Cu ions and oxidized Cu NPs were taken up by the earthworms. This study suggests that oxidized Cu NPs may enter food chains from soil but that adverse effects in earthworms are likely to occur only at relatively high concentrations (> 65 mg Cu kg(-1) soil).     

Regional radiation risk and vulnerability assessment by integration of mathematical modelling and GIS analysis

The Kola Peninsula, Russian Arctic exceeds all other regions in the world in the number of nuclear reactors. The study was aimed at estimating possible radiation risks to the population in the Nordic countries in case of a severe accident in the Kola Peninsula. Two approaches were tested: (1) probabilistic analysis of modelled possible pathways of radionuclide transport and precipitation and (2) deterministic approach (case studies) for most possible or worst-case scenarios of modelled transport and deposition of radionuclides. For the general population, Finland is at most risk with respect to the Kola nuclear power plant (NPP) because of (a) relatively high population density or proximity to the radiation-risk sites and (b) rather high probability of an airflow trajectory there and precipitation. After considering the critical group, northern counties in Norway, Finland and Sweden appear to be most vulnerable. The case scenarios demonstrate that population in many counties in each country, both near and far away from a nuclear site, might be subject to high risk depending on the meteorological situation.     

Spatial–temporal pattern of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus L. 1758) gonad maturation across the Mediterranean Sea

Atlantic bluefin tuna (BFT; Thunnus thynnus) is a migrating species straddling the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. It is assumed that this species is divided into a western and an eastern stock, which spawn in the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea, respectively. To learn more about the reproductive behavior of the eastern BFT stock, we tracked gonadal development in adult fish that were sampled between April and July during three consecutive years (2003–2005). Sampling campaigns were carried out using common fishing methods at selected locations within the Mediterranean Sea, namely Levantine Sea, Malta, and Balearic Islands. An additional sampling point, Barbate, was situated northwest of the Straits of Gibraltar along the Atlantic coast. Morphometric parameters such as the total body mass (M _B) and the weights of the gonads (M _G) were recorded, and the respective gonadosomatic index (GSI) values were calculated. The data collected revealed two important trends: (1) GSI values are higher in fish caught in the eastern rather than the western locations across the Mediterranean Sea, and (2) the GSI reaches maximum values between late May and early June in Levantine Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea), and only 2 and 4 weeks later in the central (Malta) and western (Balearic Islands) locations, respectively. The advanced gonadal development in BFT correlates well with higher sea surface temperatures. Our findings also distinguish the northern Levantine Sea BFT population (mean M _B 78.41 ± 4.13 kg), and the Barbate BFT population with the greatest M _B (all fish sampled > 100 kg). These data reflect a situation in which the eastern Mediterranean basin may function as a habitat for young BFT, until they gain a larger M _B and are able to move to the Atlantic Ocean. However, the existence of genetically discrete BFT populations in the Mediterranean Sea cannot be ruled out.