Prenatal diagnosis of the fragile X using thymidine induction

Eleven pregnancies in ten patients at risk for the fragile X were monitored by amniocentesis or chorion villus biopsy and induction of the fragile site using thymidine, methotrexate and FUdR. Three female fetuses and one male fetus were found to have the fragile X. The results obtained using thymidine induction were superior to those using methotrexate induction and probably better than those obtained using FUdR induction.     

Comparison of Two Types of Metapopulation Models in Real and Artificial Landscapes

Abstract: Application of metapopulation models is becoming increasingly widespread in the conservation of species in fragmented landscapes. We provide one of the first detailed comparisons of two of the most common modeling techniques, incidence function models and stage-based matrix models, and test their accuracy in predicting patch occupancy for a real metapopulation. We measured patch occupancies and demographic rates for regional populations of the Florida scrub lizard (   Sceloporus woodi ) and compared the observed occupancies with those predicted by each model. Both modeling strategies predicted patch occupancies with good accuracy ( 77–80%) and gave similar results when we compared hypothetical management scenarios involving removal of key habitat patches and degradation of habitat quality. To compare the two modeling approaches over a broader set of conditions, we simulated metapopulation dynamics for 150 artificial landscapes composed of equal-sized patches (2–1024 ha) spaced at equal distances (50–750 m). Differences in predicted patch occupancy were small to moderate (<20%) for about 74% of all simulations, but 22% of the landscapes had differences openface> 50%. Incidence function models and stage-based matrix models differ in their approaches, assumptions, and requirements for empirical data, and our findings provide evidence that the two models can produce different results. We encourage researchers to use both techniques and further examine potential differences in model output. The feasibility of obtaining data for population modeling varies widely among species and limits the modeling approaches appropriate for each species. Understanding different modeling approaches will become increasingly important as conservation programs undertake the challenge of managing for multiple species in a landscape context.     

Effects of sulfur dioxide and nitric oxide on mercury oxidation and reduction under homogeneous conditions

This paper is particularly related to elemental mercury (Hg0) oxidation and divalent mercury (Hg2+) reduction under simulated flue gas conditions in the presence of nitric oxide (NO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). As a powerful oxidant and chlorinating reagent, Cl2 has the potential for Hg oxidation. However, the detailed mechanism for the interactions, especially among chlorine (Cl)-containing species, SO2, NO, as well as H2O, remains ambiguous. Research described in this paper therefore focused on the impacts of SO2 and NO on Hg0 oxidation and Hg2+ reduction with the intent of unraveling unrecognized interactions among Cl species, SO2, and NO most importantly in the presence of H2O. The experimental results demonstrated that SO2 and NO had pronounced inhibitory effects on Hg0 oxidation at high temperatures when H2O was also present in the gas blend. Such a demonstration was further confirmed by the reduction of Hg2+ back into its elemental form. Data revealed that SO2 and NO were capable of promoting homogeneous reduction of Hg2+ to Hg0 with H2O being present. However, the above inhibition or promotion disappeared under homogeneous conditions when H2O was removed from the gas blend.     

Estimating separately personal exposure to ambient and nonambient particulate matter for epidemiology and risk assessment: why and how

This paper discusses the legal and scientific reasons for separating personal exposure to PM into ambient and nonambient components. It then demonstrates by several examples how well-established models and data typically obtained in exposure field studies can be used to estimate both individual and community average exposure to ambient-generated PM (ambient PM outdoors plus ambient PM that has infiltrated indoors), indoor-generated PM, and personal activity PM. Ambient concentrations are not highly correlated with personal exposure to nonambient PM or total PM but are highly correlated with personal exposure to ambient-generated PM. Therefore, ambient concentrations may be used in epidemiology as an appropriate surrogate for personal exposure to ambient-generated PM. Suggestions are offered as to how exposure to ambient-generated PM may be obtained and used in epidemiology and risk assessment.     

Developmental toxicity of two common corn pesticides to the endangered southern bell frog (Litoria raniformis)

To examine the link between corn agriculture and the observed decline of the endangered southern bell frog (SBF), the effects of two corn crop pesticides on larval growth and development were investigated. Tadpoles were exposed to terbufos sulfone (10 μg/L), a major breakdown product of the insecticide terbufos, and the herbicide atrazine (25 μg/L) individually and as a mixture until the completion of metamorphosis. Atrazine did not interact synergistically with terbufos sulfone or result in significant effects on growth and development alone, although there was some indication of accelerated metamorphosis in the pilot study. Terbufos sulfone alone and as a mixture (terbufos/atrazine) significantly slowed larval development and ultimately delayed metamorphosis. The observed developmental effects from an environmentally relevant concentration of terbufos sulfone indicates a risk posed by this persistent degradation product to the endangered SBF, which breeds and develops in the rice bays adjacent to corn fields treated with pesticides.     

The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

Bacterial community structure in soils contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Bacterial community structure was examined in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) contaminated soil taken from a timber treatment facility in southern Ireland. Profiles of soil bacterial communities were generated using a molecular fingerprinting technique, terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (TRFLP), and results were interpreted using sophisticated multivariate statistical analysis. Findings suggested that there was a correlation between PAH structure and bacterial community composition. Initial characterisation of soil from the timber treatment facility indicated that PAH contamination was unevenly distributed across the site. Bacterial community composition was correlated with the type of PAH present, with microbial community structure associated with soil contaminated with two-ringed PAHs only being distinctly different to communities in soils contaminated with multi-component PAH mixtures. Typically the number of bacterial ribotypes detected in samples did not appear to be adversely affected by the level of contamination.     

A hierarchical approach to fisheries planning and modeling in the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin is the scene of a massive effort to restore populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Efficient restoration is confounded by a high level of complexity, competing sociopolitical goals and values, and uncertainty about key system properties. Simulation models and other tools of systems analysis are important to development of a comprehensive, regionally acceptable strategy. Hierarchy theory provides a useful paradigm for organized complexity within the Columbia Basin and the basis for a trilevel hierarchical structure for organizing and integrating models. Life-stage models compose the most basic simulation units at the lowest level in the proposed hierarchical modeling structure. Each life-stage model simulates a distinct period in the life cycle of anadromous salmonids. Population models at the intermediate level simulate the complete life cycles of salmon and steelhead populations. At the highest level in the hierarchy, interpopulation models simulate extensive, long-term processes that affect multiple species and stocks. A hierarchical system of models is preferable to a single model or to a group of models lacking formal structure. A principal advantage is that models have the correct spatial and temporal resolution for analyzing questions at different scales. A hierarchical structure also facilitates the flow of information among models, and aids in understanding the impacts of uncertainty. Constructing a hierarchy of models should involve both bottom-up and top-down perspectives that maintain logical consistency among models, while allowing unique model structures appropriate for each level in the hierarchy.     

Reflections on network governance in Africa's forestry sector

International forestry governance is an integral part of the global policy debates on how to prevent deforestation, illicit extraction, and unsustainable timber practices. Africa is an important producer of timber, yet the region is beset by a lack of capacity and other governance challenges in the management of its forestry sector. We employ a network governance analysis to examine the extent to which the evolution and operation of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) and la Commission des Forêts d'Afrique Centrale (COMIFAC) have addressed governance challenges. We assess the strengths and weaknesses of these two leading examples of international forestry governance by introducing recent evidence and insights from Africa. We conclude with a policy‐relevant discussion of how the FSC and COMIFAC might enhance authority, legitimacy, and effectiveness and improve forestry governance in Africa and other parts of the world.     

Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.