Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Triangle plots of three-level explanatory variables

Thalassaemias are genetic blood disorders which cause varying degrees of anaemia. Their geographical distribution suggests a compensating protection against malaria, which kills between 0.5 and 2.5 million people per year in developing countries. Neal Alexander describes a study in Papua New Guinea which estimated this association more directly, and a triangle plot which clarified, for himself and his non-statistician colleagues, the relative risks of malaria for those with none, one or two copies of the relevant haemoglobin mutation.     

Optimal pension funding with demographic instability and endogenous returns on investment

This paper tries to explore some optimal funding policies for pension systems in a general equilibrium setting where funding affects returns on investment and wages through its impact on capital formation. This is done in the context of irregular demographic evolutions such as those expected in developed countries for the next century. Particular attention is given to the intergenerational welfare criterion which is used for designing optimal policies. It appears that funding receives low justification with a welfare criterion which assumes a high substitutability between consumptions of successive cohorts, implying a low concern for intergenerational equity. Funding is highly justified in the opposite case where a high level of consumption for some cohorts is not considered as a compensation for low consumption by others. However the optimal patterns of transfers and savings which are found in this latter case are not straightforward. Some simpler funding rules are explored in the last section of this paper, which show that non-optimal funding may imply, on the contrary, a high level of inequality between subsequent generations.Paper presented at the ISPE-conference Fiscal implications of an ageing population, May–June 1990 at Vaalsbroek, The Netherlands. We thank Pierre Pestieau for his remarks on a first draft of this paper. We also thank for their comments our two discussants Carol Propper and Lans Bovenberg, as well as other participants to the ISPE Conference. Any errors are, of course, ours.     

Book reviews

The Political Sociology of Florian Znaniecki and Contemporary Politics (in Polish), Olgierd Sochacki (Ed.) Wydawnictwo Gdanskie, The Scientific Society of Gdansk, 1996

Why Read. Internal Space and the Social Function of Literature: An Investigation with. Psychoanalysts and Psychology Students, Graziella Pagliano (Ed.) Bonanno Editore, 1994

Voix Littéraires de Femmes

Cuadernos sobre Vico, Nos 5–6, José M. Sevilla et al. 1995–96

Studi in memoria di Ernesto Grassi Proceedings of the International Conference in Memory of Ernesto Grassi (Ischia, 4–6 October 1993), Emilio Hidalgo‐Serna and Massimo Marassi (Eds), Napoli, La Città del Sole, 1996

Naples Istituto Italiano per gli Studi Fiosofici, La Gittà del Sole, Napoli, 1996

Family, Women and Employment in Central‐Eastern Europe, Barbara Lobodzinska (Ed.) Greenwood Press, 1995     

Partnering with Russia's new entrepreneurs: Software tsarina olga kirova

This article focuses on a Russian woman entrepreneur who established a very successful software firm under license from an American software company. The case illustrates a productive and successful partnership between a Western company and a new Russian entrepreneur. Recent developments in Russian entrepreneurship are reviewed, and the selection of Russian entrepreneurs as business partners is evaluated. The American company is described briefly, followed by an in-depth discussion of its Russian partner and founder, Olga Kirova. Conclusions and interpretations are offered on choosing the right Russian partners, assessing their personal values, objectives and leadership skills, being a good Western business partner, and considering Russian women as business associates.     

Adaptive Build-up and Breakdown of Trust: An Agent Based Computational Approach

This article employs Agent-Based Computational Economics (ACE) to investigate whether, and under what conditions, trust is viable in markets. The emergence and breakdown of trust is modeled in a context of multiple buyers and suppliers. Agents develop trust in a partner as a function of observed loyalty. They select partners on the basis of their trust in the partner and potential profit, with adaptive weights. On the basis of realized profits, they adapt the weight they attach to trust relative to profitability, and their own trustworthiness, modeled as a threshold of defection. Trust and loyalty turn out to be viable under fairly general conditions.