Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Temporal Evolution of Boron Flux in the NE Japan and Izu Arcs Measured by Ion Microprobe from the Forearc Tephra Record

The enrichment of boron relative to similarly incompatible elements,such as Be, in arc volcanic rocks has been used as a proxy forthe involvement of slab flux in petrogenesis. New ion microprobeanalyses of single glass shards in tephra layers recovered bythe Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) in the Izu and NE Japan forearcbasins now allow the temporal variation in slab flux to be chartedsince 7 and 5 Ma, respectively. B/Be ratios are typically <70in NE Japan and <130 in Izu, with no single grain exceeding200. Although moderate to high for modern arcs, these valuesare much less than those recorded in the Marianas and Tongaat 3–4 Ma, shortly after the start of rifting of theirback-arc basins. This observation suggests that the peak B/Bevalues seen in Tonga and the Marianas are related to the tectonicsof slab roll-back and basin opening, rather than changes inthe dynamics of the Pacific Plate. There is no temporal trendto enrichment in the high field strength elements (HFSE) orrare earth elements (REE) in either Izu or NE Japan since 7Ma, although the two elemental groups do show clear positivecorrelation. A lack of correlation between REE, HFSE and B/Besuggests that slab flux is not the only control on melting inthese arcs.     

Holocene beach deposits for assessing coastal uplift of the northeastern Boso Peninsula, Pacific coast of Japan

This paper presents a case study that assessed spatial variations in the tectonic uplift rates of beach deposits in the relict Kujukuri strand plain, situated on the northeastern coast of the Boso Peninsula, eastern Japan. The southern Boso Peninsula is tilted downward to the northeast due to plate subduction along the Sagami Trough. However, the cause of the northeastern coast uplift creating the relict strand plain is unclear, due to the absence of a Holocene raised marine terrace sequence. Elevations and ages of beach deposits were collected from drilled cores and ground-penetrating radar profiles along three shore-normal sections in the southern Kujukuri strand plain. From this, alongshore variations in the relative sea level since the mid-Holocene could be seen. These corresponded to north-to-northeast downward tilting at a rate of 0.4 m/ka for an interval 10 km and are concordant with the longer term tilting of the last interglacial marine terrace surrounding the plain. Although it is difficult to assess shore-normal variations of uplift based on the present dataset, the recognized tilting apparently continues to the tilting of the southern Boso Peninsula, implying the Sagami Trough probably affects the uplift of the Kujukuri coast.     

Automated cloud tracking system for the Akatsuki Venus Climate Orbiter data

Japanese Venus Climate Orbiter, Akatsuki, is cruising to approach to Venus again although its first Venus orbital insertion (VOI) has been failed. At present, we focus on the next opportunity of VOI and the following scientific observations.We have constructed an automated cloud tracking system for processing data obtained by Akatsuki in the present study. In this system, correction of the pointing of the satellite is essentially important for improving accuracy of the cloud motion vectors derived using the cloud tracking. Attitude errors of the satellite are reduced by fitting an ellipse to limb of an imaged Venus disk. Next, longitude–latitude distributions of brightness (cloud patterns) are calculated to make it easy to derive the cloud motion vectors. The grid points are distributed at regular intervals in the longitude–latitude coordinate. After applying the solar zenith correction and a highpass filter to the derived longitude–latitude distributions of brightness, the cloud features are tracked using pairs of images. As a result, we obtain cloud motion vectors on longitude–latitude grid points equally spaced. These entire processes are pipelined and automated, and are applied to all data obtained by combinations of cameras and filters onboard Akatsuki. It is shown by several tests that the cloud motion vectors are determined with a sufficient accuracy. We expect that longitude–latitude data sets created by the automated cloud tracking system will contribute to the Venus meteorology.     

Phase relation of CaSO<Subscript>4</Subscript> at high pressure and temperature up to 90 GPa and 2300 K

Calcium sulfate (CaSO₄), one of the major sulfate minerals in the Earth’s crust, is expected to play a major role in sulfur recycling into the deep mantle. Here, we investigated the crystal structure and phase relation of CaSO₄ up to ~90 GPa and 2300 K through a series of high-pressure experiments combined with in situ X-ray diffraction. CaSO₄ forms three thermodynamically stable polymorphs: anhydrite (stable below 3 GPa), monazite-type phase (stable between 3 and ~13 GPa) and barite-type phase (stable up to at least 93 GPa). Anhydrite to monazite-type phase transition is induced by pressure even at room temperature, while monazite- to barite-type transition requires heating at least to 1500 K at ~20 GPa. The barite-type phase cannot always be quenched from high temperature and is distorted to metastable AgMnO₄-type structure or another modified barite structure depending on pressure. We obtained the pressure–volume data and density of anhydrite, monazite- and barite-type phases and found that their densities are lower than those calculated from the PREM model in the studied P–T conditions. This suggests that CaSO₄ is gravitationally unstable in the mantle and fluid/melt phase into which sulfur dissolves and/or sulfate–sulfide speciation may play a major role in the sulfur recycling into the deep Earth.     

Dislocation microstructures in naturally deformed silicate garnets

Dislocation microstructures of naturally deformed silicate garnets and olivines in garnet-peridotites and silicate garnets in eclogites from four localities have been observed with a transmission electron microscope (TEM) to clarify the dislocation characteristics of silicate garnets. We have obtained the following results: (1) dislocation densities of garnets in all the garnet-peridotites (ρ = 10⁵−10⁷ cm⁻²) are always nearly an order of magnitude lower than those of co-existing olivines; (2) dislocation densities of garnets in eclogites (ρ = 10⁵−10⁸ cm⁻²) which are embedded in garnet-peridotites are almost an order of magnitude higher than those of garnets in the surrounding garnet-peridotites; (3) the dominant Burgers vector, b, of mainly edge dislocations in garnet is 100 for specimens with dislocation density ρ = 10⁵−10⁶ cm⁻², while b=1/2111 for specimens with ρ = 10⁷−10⁸ cm⁻². Result (1) indicates that the observed dislocations in garnets were formed by plastic deformation under the same stresses as for co-existing olivines, and that there is a similar relationship between applied stress and dislocation density for garnets as for olivines. Result (2) suggests that the stress concentration occurred around eclogites embedded in garnet-peridotites, and the resulting differential stress in garnets in eclogites was further elevated by the interlocking of neighboring hard garnet grains. Finally, result (3) indicates that the dominant Burgers vector of mainly edge dislocations in garnet changes from 100 to 1/2111 with increasing applied differential stress.