Urban land transformation for pro-poor economies

The transformation of land into a setting for clustering local economies can become an important cornerstone of poverty policy. This transformation has several functional aspects, which in turn have important institutional and political aspects. Underlying both the functional and institutional factors is the role of local government and local democracy. Such a conceptualization puts to center stage several paradoxes: A terrain that seems “slum-like” turns out to be highly productive and employment generating. Complex tenure forms and mixed land use seen as “unplanned” turn out to be pre-requisites for economic development. There are institutional paradoxes that contrast efforts at “transparency” and managerial “best practices”. Here, the messiness of local bureaucracies in municipal government turns out to be critical for poor groups to influence interventions in their favor. Influencing the public process may be more effective in stealth-like ways rather taking a more visible approach. Most fundamentally these issues remind us that the potential of cities to reinforce or reduce poverty moved far beyond projects and programs and the normative frameworks used by planners and administrators. Instead, it is the transformative process of turning land into economic settings that might be at the center stage. This is a stage where poor groups are the central actors who stealth-like draw on complex alliances across ethnic and class lines to shapes cities in their interests.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Dynamics of the Mackenzie River plume on the inner Beaufort shelf during an open water period in summer

The oceanographic conditions of the Mackenzie River plume in the Arctic Ocean were examined during a 12-day period in August 2007. Field observations in the river channel and the delta region (2–6 m depth), ship-based observations on the shelf and satellite observations of sea surface temperatures indicate that movements of plume density fronts cause changes in water temperatures of over 10  C over a few days. We used a 1D model to compare the strength of stratification versus surface wind stress, and a 3D numerical model to simulate the plume motions under forcing from the river flows, local wind and water level variations from tides and wind-driven surge. The results indicate that the coastal region is stratified with a ∼2 m thick surface plume even in water depths of 3–4 m, resulting in strong vertical variation of horizontal currents. Moderate easterly winds of 5–10 m/s are sufficient to induce offshore transport of the surface plume and onshore transport of the deeper shelf water, leading to large fluctuations in temperature and salinity in the coastal region. This study examined a period of offshore transport and mean water level set-down, and indicates the rapid response of the plume to wind over the shallow delta.     

Brine-pool deposition for the Zn–Pb–Cu massive sulphide deposits of the Bathurst mining camp, New Brunswick, Canada. II. Ocean anoxia during mineralisation

Current models of massive sulphide ore genesis in the Bathurst mining camp, New Brunswick, involve settling of sulphide particles from a stagnating, low-salinity hydrothermal plume spreading laterally in an anoxic ocean layer with minimal sulphate content. There is fragmentary evidence of ocean anoxia in the form of local fine lamination in the shales that host some of the deposits but the total organic carbon, S, Fe, U/Th, Ni/Co, V/Ni and V/Cr relationships indicate deposition under oxic or dysoxic conditions. Vanadium and Mn values range from oxic to anoxic and sulphate-reducing to non-sulphate reducing but Mn may be anomalously low due to derivation by erosion of acidic volcanic rocks. The somewhat equivocal physical and chemical data, combined with the likely disturbing effects of penecontemporaneous volcanism, considerably weaken the case for an anoxic bottom layer in a static ocean. The presence of barite with ambient seawater ³⁴S values in Brunswick no. 12 ore, and the abundance of sulphate in modern euxinic basin waters, make a sulphate-free layer unlikely, even if anoxic. Sulphate-bearing, low-salinity fluids mixing with seawater would lead to growth of barite-bearing chimneys and baritic rubble mounds, which are not observed. A model involving brine-pool deposition better explains the major features of the Bathurst ores.     

Spatio-temporal patterns and changes in environmental attitudes and place attachment in Gauteng,South Africa

In this study, we employed a number of geospatial techniques to examine the spatio-temporal patterns and changes of environmental attitudes and place attachment...     

Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.     

An Intercomparison of NO2 and OClO Measurements at Arrival Heights, Antarctica during Austral Spring 1996

For several years NO2 and OClO, two species important to understanding ozone destruction in the Antarctic stratosphere, have been measured at Arrival Heights, Antarctica by two groups: New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and the NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. Using data independently collected by these two groups during the Austral spring of 1996, it is shown that the two data sets are in extremely close agreement. Besides offering validation of the instrumentation and analysis techniques of both groups, this result provides confidence in the more complete history of these species gained by combining the two data sets.     

Genesis of the Shear Zone-related Gold Vein Mineralization of the Lega Dembi Gold Deposit, Adola Gold Field, Southern Ethiopia

The Lega Dembi Primary Gold Deposit in southern Ethiopia is related to the shear zone-hosted vein in the Neoproterozoic metamorphosed volcano-sedimentary succession of greenschist- to amphibolite-facies metamorphism. The rocks consists of a sequence of biotite-feldspar-quartz schists, carbonaceous mica-schists, amphibolites and basic to ultrabasic rocks. This unit is separated from a foot wall biotite gneiss by a major shear zone. The ore bodies are hosted in the volcano-sedimentary sequence and consist of swarms of quartz veins, lenses, and stockworks that propagated along mesoscale ductile to brittle-ductile shear zones.The mineralization is defined by a complex paragenesis of gold in association with Cu-Pb-Zn-Fe sulphides, tellurides and sulphosalts. The presence of Ni-bearing minerals in amphibolites of the host sequence, together with the ore mineral association, suggests an origin related to mafic volcanism.