Drought analysis in Jordan under current and future climates

Droughts have adverse socioeconomic, agricultural, and environmental impacts that can be reduced by assessing and forecasting drought behavior. The paper presents detailed analyses of both meteorological and vegetative droughts over the period from 1970 to 2005. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have been used to quantify drought according to severity, magnitude and spatial distribution at the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Results suggest that the country faced during the past 35 years frequent non-uniform drought periods in an irregular repetitive manner. Drought severity, magnitudes and life span increased with time from normal to extreme levels especially at last decade reaching magnitudes of more than 4. Generated NDVI maps spatial analyses estimate crop-area percentage damage due to severe and extremely severe drought events occurred during October, December, and February of 2000 to be about 10%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. In response to drought spatial extent, the paper suggest the presence of two drought types, local drought acting on one or more geographical climatic parts and national drought, of less common but more severe, that extend over the whole country. Droughts in Jordan act intensively during January, February and March and tend to shift position with time by alternative migrations from southern desert parts to northern desert parts and from the eastern desert parts to highlands and Jordan Rift Valley (JRV) at the west. The paper also investigates the potential use of Global Climate Model’s (GCM) to forecast future drought events from 2010 till 2040. Tukey HSD test indicates that ECHAM5OM GCM is capable to predicted rainfall variation at the country and suggests future droughts to become more intensive at the northern and southern desserts with 15% rainfall reduction factor, followed by 10% reduction at the JRV, and 5% at the highlands.     

Sources of groundwater salinity along the flow path,Disi–Dead Sea/Jordan

The groundwater along the eastern escarpment of the Dead Sea shows a variety of chemical compositions with EC values ranging between 500 and a few thousand μS/cm. In this article the different groundwaters were correlated to the aquifers from where they originate and the water–rock interactions were elaborated at. It was found that the start of intercalations of Permo-Triassic and Jurassic rocks in the area and the basaltic dykes and sills are the sources, which cause a drastic increase in the salinity of the water. These rocks contents of residual evaporites, contact metamorphism products, sills, dykes and secondary altered mineral assemblage of plagioclase-, pyroxenes- and Fe-, Mn- minerals cause also drastic changes in ionic ratios, saturation indices and groundwater types. Fresh groundwater flows entering the area become, gradually, after a few kilometres highly salinized and of earthalkali type with prevailing chloride and sulfate instead of being bicarbonate waters.     

Groundwater Deterioration of Shallow Groundwater Aquifers Due to Overexploitation in Northeast Jordan

Groundwater is the major water resource in Jordan and most of the groundwater basins are already exploited beyond their estimated safe yield. Azraq basin is one of the most important groundwater basins in Jordan, which supplies Amman with drinking water. However, due to overpumping from the shallow groundwater aquifers, the water level dropped dramatically and signs of salinization and depletion are starting to occur. The severe drawdown in the Azraq well‐field caused a reverse in the hydraulic gradient and consequently, the saltwater in the center of the basin (Qa‐Azraq) started to move in the direction of the well‐field. The salinization in the shallow aquifer (basalt/B5/B4) is believed to result from one of the following scenarios: (i) a reverse flow from Sabkha to the AWSA well field, (ii) an upward leakage from the middle aquifer system (B2/A7) and the combined B3 Aquitard‐B2/A7 aquifer, (iii) a dissolution process between the water and rock matrix due to lowering of the dynamic water levels during pumping which reached the mineralized formations underlying the Basalt. The salinization trend of some AWSA wells represented by the gradual increase of major ions is associated with rather constant stable isotopic contents. This indicates that these constituents originate from the main minerals existing in the matrix of the aquifers and thus this scenario is the most likely to occur.     

Vulnerability mapping of shallow groundwater aquifer using SINTACS model in the Jordan Valley area, Jordan

Jordan Valley is one of the important areas in Jordan that involves dense agricultural activities, which depend on groundwater resources. The groundwater is exploited from an unconfined shallow aquifer which is mainly composed of alluvial deposits. In the vicinity of the Kafrein and South Shunah, the shallow aquifer shows signs of contamination from a wide variety of non-point sources. In this study, a vulnerability map was created as a tool to determine areas where groundwater is most vulnerable to contamination. One of the most widely used groundwater vulnerability mapping methods is SINTACS, which is a point count system model for the assessment of groundwater pollution hazards. SINTACS model is an adaptation for Mediterranean conditions of the well-known DRASTIC model. The model takes into account several environmental factors: these include topography, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, and pedology. Spatial knowledge of all these factors and their mutual relationships is needed in order to properly model aquifer vulnerability using this model. Geographic information system was used to express each of SINTACS parameters as a spatial thematic layer with a specific weight and score. The final SINTACS thematic layer (intrinsic vulnerability index) was produced by taking the summation of each score parameter multiplied by its specific weight. The resultant SINTACS vulnerability map of the study area indicates that the highest potential sites for contamination are along the area between Er Ramah and Kafrein area. To the north of the study area there is a small, circular area which shows fairly high potential. Elsewhere, very low to low SINTACS index values are observed, indicating areas of low vulnerability potential.     

Groundwater recharge zones mapping using GIS: a case study in Southern part of Jordan Valley,Jordan

This paper aims at mapping the potential groundwater recharge zones in the southern part of Jordan Valley (JV). This area is considered as the most important part for agricultural production in Jordan. The methodology adopted in this study is based on utilizing the open ended SLUGGER-DQL score model, which was developed by Raymond et al (2009). Geographic information systems were used in this study to build up the different layers of this model and to create the potential groundwater recharge zones. Based on the generated SLUGGER-DQL potential map, it was found that about 70.8 % of the investigated area was categorized as high potential for groundwater recharge, 18.7 % as moderate, and 10.5 % as low potential for groundwater recharge. To validate the model results, sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the influence of each model parameter on the obtained results. Based on this analysis, it was found that the slope parameter (S) is the most sensitive parameter among SLUGGER-DQL model parameters, followed by water level in summer (L), well density (D), water quality (Q), runoff availability (R), land use/land cover, geology (GE), whereas the lowest sensitive parameter is the geology parameter (GE). Moreover, the parameters R, D, and Q show the lowest effective weights. The effective weight for each parameter was found to differ from the assigned theoretical weight by SLUGGER-DQL index model.