The 14C distribution in West Atlantic abyssal waters

¹⁴C specific activities in the western Atlantic show aging of about 160 years between 42°N and 30°S for southward-moving North Atlantic Deep Water. Most of the aging occurs in the North Atlantic, with a small increase in¹⁴C level for abyssal water near the equator.The northward-flowing Antarctic Bottom Water component ages about 80 years between 50°S and the equator. The rate of Atlantic bottom water formation is estimated at 18 Sverdrups; the rate of flow for northward-moving Antarctic Bottom Water at about 6 Sverdrups.     

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Holocene sea-level changes along the Strait of Magellan and Beagle Channel,southernmost South America

Radiocarbon-dated marine sediments from five coastal sites along the Strait of Magellan and Beagle Channel in southernmost Chile permit construction of a curve of relative sea-level fluctuations during the Holocene. Morphologic and stratigraphic data point to coastal submergence during the early Holocene as the sea rose to a maximum level at least 3.5 m higher than present about 5000 yr ago. Progressive emergence then followed during the late Holocene. Data from widely separated localities define a smooth curve, the form of which is explainable in terms of isostatic and hydroisostatic deformation of the crust resulting from changing ice and water loads. Apparently anomalous data from one site located more than 100 km behind the outer limit of the last glaciation may reflect isostatic response to deglaciation. The sea-level curve resembles one derived by Clark and Bloom (1979, In “Proceedings of the 1978 International Symposium on Coastal Evolution in the Quaternary, Sao Paulo, Brasil,” pp. 41–60. Sao Paulo) using a spherical Earth model, both in amplitude and in the timing of the maximum submergence.     

The GISP2 δO Climate Record of the Past 16,500 Years and the Role of the Sun, Ocean, and Volcanoes

Measured ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ratios from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core extending back to 16,500 cal yr B.P. provide a continuous record of climate change since the last glaciation. High-resolution annual ¹⁸O/¹⁶O results were obtained for most of the current millennium (A.D. 818-1985) and record the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and a distinct 11-yr ¹⁸O/¹⁶O cycle. Volcanic aerosols depress central Greenland annual temperature (1.5°C maximally) and annual ¹⁸O/¹⁶O for about 4 yr after each major eruptive event. On a bidecadal to millennial time scale, the contribution of solar variability to Holocene Greenlandic temperature change is 0.4°C. The role of thermohaline circulation change on climate, problematic during the Holocene, is more distinct for the 16,500-10,000 cal yr B.P. interval. (Analogous to ¹⁴C age calibration terminology, we express time in calibrated (cal) yr B.P. (A.D. 1950 = 0 cal yr B.P.)). The Oldest Dryas/Bølling/Older Dryas/Allerød/Younger Dryas sequence appears in great detail. Bidecadal variance in ¹⁸O/¹⁶O, but not necessarily in temperature, is enhanced during the last phase of lateglacial time and the Younger Dryas interval, suggesting switches of air mass transport between jet stream branches. The branched system is nearly instantaneously replaced at the beginning of the Bølling and Holocene (at 14,670 and 11,650 cal yr B.P., respectively) by an atmospheric circulation system in which ¹⁸O/¹⁶O and annual accumulation initially track each other closely. Thermodynamic considerations of the accumulation rate-temperature relationship can be used to evaluate the ¹⁸ O/¹⁶O-temperature relationship. The GISP2 ice-layer-count years of major GISP2 climate transitions also support the use of coral ¹⁴C ages for age calibration.     

The Taylor Dome Antarctic O Record and Globally Synchronous Changes in Climate

The ¹⁸O/¹⁶O profile of a 554-m long ice core through Taylor Dome, Antarctica, shows the climate variability of the last glacial–interglacial cycle in detail and extends at least another full cycle. Taylor Dome shares the main features of the Vostok record, including the early climatic optimum with later cool phase of the last interglacial period in Antarctica. Taylor Dome δ¹⁸O fluctuations are more abrupt and larger than those at Vostok and Byrd Station, although still less pronounced than those of the Greenland GISP2 and GRIP records. The influence of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation on regional ocean heat transport explains the partly “North Atlantic” character of this Antarctic record. Under full glacial climate (marine isotope stage 4, late stage 3, and stage 2), this marine influence diminished and Taylor Dome became more like Vostok. Varying degrees of marine influence produce climate heterogeneity within Antarctica, which may account for conflicting evidence regarding the relative phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate change.     

The radiocarbon budget for Mono Lake: an unsolved mystery

Since 1957 the ¹⁴C/C ratio of the dissolved inorganic carbon in Mono Lake has risen by about 60‰. The magnitude of this increase is about four times larger than that expected from the invasion of bomb-produced¹⁴C from the atmosphere. We have eliminated the following explanations: (1) measurement error, (2) an unusually high physical exchange rate for non-reactive gases, (3) inorganic enhancement of the CO₂ exchange rate, and (4) biological enhancement of the CO₂ exchange rate. Clandestine disposal of waste radiocarbon remains a dark-horse explanation.In the course of our investigations we have uncovered evidence for at least one episodic input of radiocarbon-free carbon to the lake over the last 1000 years. We speculate that this injection was related to a hydrothermal event resulting from sublacustrine volcanic activity.     

A 1600 year long record of solar change derived from atmospheric 14C levels

Tree-ring ¹⁴C measurements indicate the long-term solar variations, as modulations of the cosmic ray flux, shown in Figure 1.Proceedings of the 14th ESLAB Symposium on Physics of Solar Variations, 16–19 September 1980, Scheveningen, The Netherlands.     

Carbon-14 calibration between the University of Washington and the University of Miami Geosecs laboratories

Cross-checks between the Washington and Miami Geosecs radiocarbon laboratories verify that results on identical samples measured at the two laboratories agree with the stated accuracy of each laboratory which is±4‰inΔ¹⁴C.     

Is There Evidence for Solar Forcing of Climate in the GISP2 Oxygen Isotope Record?

Changes in solar constant over an 11 yr cycle suggest a certain, but limited, degree of solar forcing of climate. The high-resolution climate (oxygen isotope) record of the Greenland GISP2 (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) ice core has been analyzed for solar (and volcanic) influences. The atmospheric¹⁴C record is used as a proxy of solar change and compared to the oxygen isotope profile in the GISP2 ice core. An annual oxygen isotope profile is derived from centimeter-scale isotope measurements available for the post-A.D. 818 interval. Associated extreme summer and winter isotope ratios were found to yield similar climate information over the last millennium. The detailed record of volcanic aerosols, converted to optical depth and volcanic explosivity change, was also compared to the isotope record and the oxygen isotope response calibrated to short-term volcanic influences on climate. This calibration shows that century-scale volcanic modulation of the GISP2 oxygen isotope record can be neglected in our analysis of solar forcing. The timing, estimated order of temperature change, and phase lag of several maxima in¹⁴C and minima in¹⁸O are suggestive of a solar component to the forcing of Greenland climate over the current millennium. The fractional climate response of the cold interval associated with the Maunder sunspot minimum (and¹⁴C maximum), as well as the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age temperature trend of the past millennium, are compatible with solar climate forcing, with an order of magnitude of solar constant change of 0.3%. Even though solar forcing of climate for the current millennium is a reasonable hypothesis, for the rest of the Holocene the century-scale events are more frequent in the oxygen isotope record than in the¹⁴C record and a significant correlation is absent. For this interval, oceanic/atmospheric circulation forcing of climate may dominate. Solar forcing during the surprisingly strong 1470 yr climate cycle of the 11,000–75,000 yr B.P. interval is rather hypothetical.