H2S fluxes from Mt. Etna, Stromboli, and Vulcano (Italy) and implications for the sulfur budget at volcanoes

We present here new measurements of sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide emissions from Vulcano, Etna, and Stromboli (Italy), made by direct sampling at vents and by filter pack and ultraviolet spectroscopy in downwind plumes. Measurements at the F0 and FA fumaroles on Vulcano yielded SO₂/H₂S molar ratios of ≈0.38 and ≈1.4, respectively, from which we estimate an H₂S flux of 6 to 9 t · d⁻¹ for the summit crater. For Mt. Etna and Stromboli, we found SO₂/H₂S molar ratios of ≈20 and ≈15, respectively, which combined with SO₂ flux measurements, suggest H₂S emission rates of 50 to 113 t · d⁻¹ and 4 to 8 t · d⁻¹, respectively. We observe that “source” and plume SO₂/H₂S ratios at Vulcano are similar, suggesting that hydrogen sulfide is essentially inert on timescales of seconds to minutes. This finding has important implications for estimates of volcanic total sulfur budget at volcanoes since most existing measurements do not account for H₂S emission.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on precipitation and surface air temperature in South America

The regional influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on South America is described. Maps of probability of weekly-averaged rainfall exceeding the upper tercile were computed for all seasons and related statistically with the phase of the MJO as characterized by the Wheeler–Hendon real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index and with the OLR MJO Index. The accompanying surface air temperature and circulation anomalies were also calculated. The influence of the MJO on regional scales along with their marked seasonal variations was documented. During December–February when the South American monsoon system is active, chances of enhanced rainfall are observed in southeastern South America (SESA) region mainly during RMM phases 3 and 4, accompanied by cold anomalies in the extratropics, while enhanced rainfall in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) region is observed in phases 8 and 1. The SESA (SACZ) signal is characterized by upper-level convergence (divergence) over tropical South America and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomaly near the southern tip of the continent. Impacts during March–May are similar, but attenuated in the extratropics. Conversely, in June–November, reduced rainfall and cold anomalies are observed near the coast of the SACZ region during phases 4 and 5, favored by upper-level convergence over tropical South America and an anticyclonic anomaly over southern South America. In September–November, enhanced rainfall and upper-level divergence are observed in the SACZ region during phases 7 and 8. These signals are generated primarily through the propagation of Rossby wave energy generated in the region of anomalous heating associated with the MJO.     

The use of rogation ceremony records in climatic reconstruction: a case study from Catalonia (Spain)

The use of rogation ceremonies due to environmental causes constitutes an important source of information in paleoclimatic reconstructions. Their specific characteristics and full documental records permit highly reliable series to be reconstructed with daily, monthly, seasonal or annual resolution over periods of several centuries (3–4 centuries in the case of Catalonia). The levels of intensity, reflected in the type of religious ceremony enacted, allows quantification. Comparative analysis is made possible by the similarity of the mechanisms developed in different localities. The use of these series in paleoclimatological studies is a promising line of research, particularly as regards the pro pluvia rogations celebrated in the Mediterranean countries and in South America.     

Volcanic CO2 flux measurement at Campi Flegrei by tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy

Near-infrared room temperature tunable diode lasers (TDL) have recently found increased usage in atmospheric chemistry and air monitoring research, but applications in volcanology are still limited to a few examples. Here, we explored the potential of a commercial infrared laser unit (GasFinder 2.0 from Boreal Laser Ltd) for measurement of volcanic CO₂ mixing ratios, and ultimately for estimating the volcanic CO₂ flux. Our field tests were conducted at Campi Flegrei near Pozzuoli, Southern Italy, where the GasFinder was used during three campaigns in October 2012, January 2013 and May 2013 to repeatedly measure the path-integrated mixing ratios of CO₂ along cross sections of the atmospheric plumes of two major fumarolic fields (Solfatara and Pisciarelli). By using a tomographic post-processing routine, we resolved, for each of the two fields, the contour maps of CO₂ mixing ratios in the atmosphere, from the integration of which (and after multiplication by the plumes’ transport speeds) the CO₂ fluxes were finally obtained. We evaluate a total CO₂ output from the Campi Flegrei fumaroles of ～490 Mg/day, in line with independent estimates based on in situ (Multi-GAS) observations. We conclude that TDL technique may enable CO₂ flux quantification at other volcanoes worldwide.     

Geothermal energy release at the Solfatara of Pozzuoli (Phlegraean Fields): Phreatic and phreatomagmatic explosion risk implications

The H₂O, CO₂ and H₂S outputs at the Solfatara of Pozzuoli have been measured and a map of the exhaling areas has also been made. The energy released at the surface by the fluids has been estimated to be 10¹⁹ ergs/day.The presence of aquifers at Phlegraean Fields increases the phreatic and phreatomagmatic explosion risk.Our results suggest that even if an uprising magma may interact with water at depth, an explosion could occur only at the shallow levels of a few hundred meters. Since the transfer of energy toward the surface is favoured by the presence of fractures, a detailed analysis of the deep fracture network would help to evaluate the risk levels of the various areas of Phlegraean Fields.     

Going quantitative with 4D seismic analysis

It is demonstrated that time‐lapse seismic signatures can be directly calibrated with historical data from producing and injecting wells via a reservoir simulator, material balance calculation or simply using the hard data. When this procedure is applied to a field over which two or more repeat surveys have been shot at different calendar times, the correlation coefficients that link the seismic difference signatures to the reservoir's pressure and saturation variations are determined. By utilizing several seismic attributes that respond differently to reservoir perturbations, pressure and saturation changes are then independently estimated. The approach is tested on synthetic data and then on data from the Schiehallion Field on the UK continental shelf, with favourable results.     

Seismic vulnerability of bridges in transport networks subjected to environmental deterioration

This paper investigates the problem of management, maintenance and planning of interventions in transport networks located in seismic zones, in relation to the actual state of degradation of their most vulnerable elements, as bridges. The study consists in two phases: the first phase is concerned with definition of the seismic vulnerability of a typical bridge in the network, through the construction of fragility curves calculated taking into account the corrosion of the reinforcing steel as the main cause of environmental deterioration. Once the fragility curves of the deteriorated bridges are computed, the second phase consists in the analysis of the vulnerability of the transport network in which the bridges are included taking into account the modification of the traffic flows when bridge infrastructures are damaged. The results of this pilot study can be used as a first step for a proper allocation of economic resources in the planning of seismic retrofit interventions to minimize the overall risk and manage the immediate post-earthquake emergency phase and guide rescuers in reaching the affected and critical areas.     

Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013

Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth’s emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004–2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space–time window around (M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH.