SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

森林水文生态效应若干争论问题讨论

对国内外若干森林水文生态效应的部分争论焦点问题进行了阐述,指出容量饱和与平衡变化是导致不同森林水文生态效应存在的根本原因.截留量可以用林冠截留率或林冠饱和度计算.对森林水文生态效应的研究方法进行了探讨,指出某些研究结论相反的原因可能是由于实验方法的问题.必须结合水文循环过程的机理,加强森林生水文生态效应机制的研究,要建立不同空间尺度的分布式水文模型,从而准确的回答流域或区域的森林生态水文效应.     

2014年夏季长江流域持续性低温的大尺度环流异常

采用中国地面站气温逐日观测资料、NOAA全球逐日海表温度资料,及NCEP/NCAR的全球日均再分析资料,研究了2014年持续性低温的三维结构及大尺度环流异常。结果表明,2014年的低温异常,除了在陆地上区域性地出现在长江流域,还以大尺度带状的形式、从陆地延伸到海洋上。这种带状异常不只出现在近地面,在大气各层（925～500 hPa）都能看到。分析指出,大气中的这个低温带主要由高纬大气环流异常造成。在位势高度场上,最重要的异常出现在高纬60°N,有呈带状的位势高度正距平,它引导（距平意义上的）偏北气流从正北和东北偏东方向侵入,在其南侧形成一带状的偏低温区。大气各层均呈现出这种在高纬有位势高度正距平、相应地在稍南的低纬（40°N）有位势高度负距平、两者之间为低温区的分布特征。从低层往上,这种配置型式整体表现出由南往北的倾斜,其垂直剖面表现为距平意义上的、大尺度、类似于锋面的倾斜结构。文中用简单的概念模型对此进行理解,认为这种结构是由大气动力异常和热力异常相互影响、共同作用而形成的。     

降水对江浙沪PM_(2.5)的清除效率研究

为了解不同程度的降水对江浙沪地区大气PM_(2.5)的清除作用,搜集了2014—2016年该地区41个城市的降水和PM_(2.5)观测数据,通过对比2 a非降水和全时段PM_(2.5)平均浓度的差异,发现前者显著高于后者,说明降水对该地区PM_(2.5)具有清除作用。利用降水前与降水期间PM_(2.5)的浓度差异作为降水对PM_(2.5)的清除率,降水后与降水期间的浓度差异作为雨后浓度回升的增加率,分别研究了目标区域不同时期、不同降雨量以及不同降雨时长对PM_(2.5)的清除效果。结果显示:(1)与江浙沪南部地区不同的是,北部地区降水清除率与降水前浓度存在正相关,降水后浓度的增加与当地的排放量呈正相关。(2)当降水量为30 mm或者降水时长为36 h时,清除率增幅减缓,说明降水对PM_(2.5)的清除效率存在着阈值。     

Taxonomic distinctness of macrofauna as an ecological indicator in Laizhou Bay and adjacent waters

In this paper, we assessed the ecological and biodiversity status in the Bohai Sea through a quantitative survey on mac-rofaunal community at 25 stations in Laizhou Bay and adjacent waters in the autumn of 2006.We tested the robustness and effectiveness of taxonomic distinctness as an ecological indictor by analyzing its correlation with species richness and natural environmental variables and by analyzing other ecological indicators (Shannon-Wiener H' and W statistics from Abundance Biomass Comparison curve).Results so obtained indicated that the benthic environment of the study waters in general is not under major impact of anthropogenic disturbance, but some stations in Laizhou Bay and along the coast of the Shandong Peninsula and even in the central Bohai Sea might be moderately disturbed and showed signs of ecological degradation.The taxonomic distinctness measures △+ and Λ+ were independent of sampling effort and natural environment factors and were compliant to other ecological indicators.Further application of the taxonomic distinctness indicator to assess marine biodiversity and ecosystem health on a larger regional scale with historical data seems promising.     

NATURE OF PRECIPITATION AND ACTIVITY OF CUMULUS CONVECTION DURING THE 1991 MEIYU SEASON OF CHANGJIANG-HUAIHE RIVER BASIN*

Seasonal variability regarding the nature of precipitation and the activity of cumulus convection during the 1991 Meiyu season of Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin(Jianghuai)has been investigated by calculating apparent heat source/apparent moisture sink and analyzing TBB(cloud-top blackody radiation temperature)data.It is found that three periods of strong ascending motion during the Meiyu season lead to three episodes of heavy rain,and the latent heat due to the precipitation is of the sole heat source of the atmosphere.The nature of precipitation shows distinct seasonal variability,from frontal precipitation of the first episode to the extremely strong convective precipitation of the third episode.TBB field of East Asia may well reflect not only the intensity of convection and rainfall,but also the movement of rain belt and convection belt.In the whole Meiyu season.convection belt mainly stays in Jianghuai.but may shift within the domain of East Asia.Its locating in Jianghuai or not determines the maintenance or break of Meiyu.In the third episode,the narrow convection belt over Jianghuai is mainly caused by southwest monsoon which takes moist and convective atmosphere from tropical ocean.     

Stratigraphy and geochemistry of pillow basalts within the ophiolitic mélange of the Izmir–Ankara–Erzincan suture zone: implications for the geotectonic character of the northern branch of Neotethys

The Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone of Turkey is a broad zone of ophiolitic mélange containing numerous fragmented blocks ranging in age from Triassic to Cretaceous. Stratigraphic sequences for various mélange units are compared, together with the geochemistry of associated basaltic pillow lavas of Cretaceous age. A review of geochemical data for the pillow lavas demonstrate: (a) a dominant group of alkalic basalts with enriched incompatible elements, variable Zr/Y and Zr/Nb ratios, and (b) a range of tholeiitic basalts with slightly depleted to mildly enriched (normalized) rare earth patterns, (La/Yb)_N 0.4-3.0, and generally low Zr/Y ratios. The alkalic basalts can be chemically matched to Pacific Ocean seamounts, although the close association of red radiolarites and cherts suggests that many basalts represent the margins of such structures, rather than the main seamount edifice. Nd-Sr isotope data are typical for ocean island basalts and represent an admixture of a dominant EM-1 source and a depleted MORB-like source. Enhanced δ¹⁸O compositions are a consequence of submarine alteration and not crustal contamination. Tholeiitic compositions have affinities with both N- and E-type MORB, although most are probably representative of tholeiitic ocean islands. Overall the basalts are mainly representative of structures built on the ocean floor, rather than the oceanic crust itself, being scraped off the subducting crust and preserved in the mélange of the accretionary wedge.     

1991年5-7月江淮洪涝:水汽和冷空气的作用比较

对1991年5-7月江淮流域持续性暴雨的环流异常进行分析,比较造成此次洪涝的水汽输送和冷空气活动重要性。结果表明：（1）东亚大槽维持在中国东北上空发展明显,同时鄂霍次克海上空没有建立强大阻高,这种形势有利于冷空气持续向南侵袭,盛行经向环流。此外,低纬度地区,西太平洋副热带高压主体位置于常年同期相比,明显偏西、偏强,有利于暖湿气流沿副热带高压北上到达江淮流域,与北方冷空气辐合形成强降水。（2）通过定义I_T和I_q分别表征温度与水汽对降水的贡献,发现此次江淮流域地区强降水是由对流层低层水汽异常增多和气温异常偏低共同造成的,作用基本相当。     

中国东部城市土地利用变化对江南春雨影响的模拟研究

利用美国国家大气研究中心发布的较高分辨率大气环流模式CAM 5.1,进行了中国东部(20~50°N,100~125°E)城市土地利用变化对江南春雨影响的数值试验。结果显示:较中国东部无城市土地利用的试验相比,城市用地增加后,江南春雨推迟约3候建立而提前1候结束,持续时间缩短,同时降水强度减弱。进一步分析表明:东部城市土地利用增加可改变地表能量收支,使得东部大部分地区的地表增暖,导致地表感热增强,对大气的异常加热使得该区域上空等压面抬升,缩小了低层青藏高原东南侧至西太平洋间的位势梯度,使得形成江南春雨的直接原因——西南风减小,从而减少春季江南地区的降水。中国东部城市土地利用改变可能是影响近几十年江南春雨年代际变化的原因之一。