Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

Calibration of an oscillating nozzle‐type rainfall simulator

Nozzle‐type rainfall simulators are commonly used in hydrologic and soil erosion research. Simulated rainfall intensity, originating from the nozzle, increases as the distance between the point of measurement and the source is decreased. Hence, rainfall measured using rain gauges would systematically overestimate the rainfall received at the ground level. A simple model was developed to adjust rainfall measured anywhere under the simulator to plot‐wide average rainfall at the ground level. Nozzle height, plot width, gauge diameter and height, and gauge location are required to compute this adjustment factor. Results from 15 runs at different rain intensities and durations, and with different rain gauge layouts, showed that a simple average of measured rain would overestimate the plot‐wide rain by about 20 per cent. Using the adjustment factor to convert measured rainfall for individual gauges before averaging improved the estimate of plot‐wide rainfall considerably. For the 15 runs considered, overall discrepancy between actual and measured rain is reduced to less than 1 per cent with a standard error of 0·97 mm. This model can be easily tested in the ?eld by comparing rainfall depths of different sized gauges. With the adjustment factor they should all give very similar values. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Low melting temperature for calcite at 1000 bars on the join CaCO3‐H2O – some geological implications

Melting experiments of calcite were performed on the join CaCO₃‐H₂O at a pressure of 1000 bars. The system evolves to the ternary CaO‐H₂O‐CO₂ system during melting experiments. Our experiments show that partial melting of calcite begins at a low temperature, below 650 °C. Such a low partial melting temperature for carbonates revives the debate about the presence of carbonate melts in the upper crust. More specifically, the conditions for carbonate partial melting are present in carbonate host rocks undergoing contact metamorphism at high temperatures in the presence of water‐rich fluid. The presence of carbonate melts influences physical parameters such as viscosity and permeability in contact aureoles, and, furthermore, decarbonation reactions release massive amounts of CO₂.     

Snow carrots after the Chelyabinsk event and model implications for highly porous solar system objects

After the catastrophic disruption of the Chelyabinsk meteoroid, small fragments formed funnels in the snow layer covering the ground. We constrain the pre‐impact characteristics of the fragments by simulating their atmospheric descent with the atmospheric entry model. Fragments resulting from catastrophic breakup may lose about 90% of their initial mass due to ablation and reach the snow vertically with a free‐fall velocity in the range of 30–90 m s^?1. The fall time of the fragments is much longer than their cooling time, and, as a consequence, fragments have the same temperature as the lower atmosphere, i.e., of about ?20 °C. Then, we use the shock physics code iSALE to model the penetration of fragments into fluffy snow, the formation of a funnel and a zone of denser snow lining its walls. We examine the influence of several material parameters of snow and present our best‐fit model by comparing funnel depth and funnel wall characteristics with observations. In addition, we suggest a viscous flow approximation to estimate funnel depth dependence on the meteorite mass. We discuss temperature gradient metamorphism as a possible mechanism which allows to fill the funnels with denser snow and to form the observed “snow carrots.” This natural experiment also helps us to calibrate the iSALE code for simulating impacts into highly porous matter in the solar system including tracks in the aerogel catchers of the Stardust mission and possible impact craters on the 67P/Churyumov‐Gerasimenko comet observed recently by the Rosetta mission.     

Oceanic area's influence on the range of multi-annual variations of the earth's magnetic field in France

The pluri-annual variations of the earth's magnetic field in France increase their range of influence from East to West. This leads to presume a discontinuity of electric conductivities at the transition from the continental to the oceanic area.     

Lake Neor reveals how mountain vegetation responded to 7000 years of hydroclimate variability in northwestern Iran

Palynological and geochemical analyses provide valuable information about modern and past climatic regimes and vegetation. The impact of climate and humans on past vegetation in the semi-arid areas of northwestern Iran has received increased interest in the wake of warming temperatures in the Middle East. Palynological and down-core XRF elemental abundances from a peat core from Lake Neor enabled a reconstruction of vegetational changes of the past 7000 years over the highlands of northwestern Iran. Periods of increased arboreal pollen (AP) types and high (Artemisia + Poaceae)/Chenopodiaceae ratios along with low titanium abundances, high percentages of total organic carbon, more negative δD values, and higher carbon accumulation rates suggest a relatively wet climate. These conditions have persisted during the periods 6700–6200, 5200–4450 and 3200–2200 cal a bp. The overall low AP values, substantial rise of Chenopodiaceae, high Ti abundances and low values of palaeo-redox proxies, are all evidences of a drier climate, as has been reconstructed for the periods 6200–5200 and 4030–3150 cal a bp and the last 2200 years. An important feature of the last centuries is the increase of anthropogenic and pastoral indicator pollen types. Our results may provide basic data to predict future trends in vegetation dynamics under future climate change in western Asia.     

A diverse Pleistocene marsupial trackway assemblage from the Victorian Volcanic Plains,Australia

A diverse assemblage of late Pleistocene marsupial trackways on a lake bed in south-western Victoria provides the first information relating to the gaits and morphology of several megafaunal species, and represents the most speciose and best preserved megafaunal footprint site in Australia. The 60–110 ka volcaniclastic lacustrine sedimentary rocks preserve trackways of the diprotodontid Diprotodon optatum, a macropodid (probably Protemnodon sp.) and a large vombatid (perhaps Ramsayia magna or ‘Phascolomys’ medius) and possible prints of the marsupial lion, Thylacoleo carnifex. The footprints were imprinted within a short time period, demonstrating the association of the taxa present, rather than the time-averaged accumulations usually observed in skeletal fossil deposits. Individual manus and pes prints are distinguishable in some trackways, and in many cases some digital pad morphology is also present. Several parameters traditionally used to differentiate ichnotaxa, including trackway gauge and the degree of print in-turning relative to the midline, are shown to be subject to significant intraspecific variation in marsupials. Sexual dimorphism in the trackway proportions of Diprotodon, and its potential for occurrence in all large bodied, quadrupedal marsupials, is identified here for the first time.