The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood process chain at Lake Salkantaycocha (Cordillera Vilcabamba,Peru)

Glacial lakes represent a threat for the populations of the Andes and numerous disastrous glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred as a result of sudden dam failures or dam overtoppings triggered by landslides such as rock/ice avalanches into the lake. This paper investigates a landslide-triggered GLOF process chain that occurred on February 23, 2020, in the Cordillera Vilcabamba in the Peruvian Andes. An initial slide at the SW slope of Nevado Salkantay evolved into a rock/ice avalanche. The frontal part of this avalanche impacted the moraine-dammed Lake Salkantaycocha, triggering a displacement wave which overtopped and surficially eroded the dam. Dam overtopping resulted in a far-reaching GLOF causing fatalities and people missing in the valley downstream. We analyze the situations before and after the event as well as the dynamics of the upper portion of the GLOF process chain, based on field investigations, remotely sensed data, meteorological data and a computer simulation with a two-phase flow model. Comparison of pre- and post-event field photographs helped us to estimate the initial landslide volume of 1–2 million m³. Meteorological data suggest rainfall and/or melting/thawing processes as possible causes of the landslide. The simulation reveals that the landslide into the lake created a displacement wave of 27 m height. The GLOF peak discharge at the dam reached almost 10,000 m³/s. However, due to the high freeboard, less than 10% of the lake volume drained, and the lake level increased by 10–15 m, since the volume of landslide material deposited in the lake (roughly 1.3 million m³) was much larger than the volume of released water (57,000 m³, according to the simulation). The model results show a good fit with the observations, including the travel time to the uppermost village. The findings of this study serve as a contribution to the understanding of landslide-triggered GLOFs in changing high-mountain regions.

     

Separation of rifting and lithospheric folding signatures in the NW-Alpine foreland

The development of the Alpine mountain belt has been governed by the convergence of the African and European plates since the Late Cretaceous. During the Cenozoic, this orogeny was accompanied with two major kinds of intraplate deformation in the NW-European foreland: (1) the European Cenozoic Rift System (ECRIS), a left-lateral transtensional wrench zone striking NNE-SSW between the western Mediterranean Sea and the Bohemian Massif; (2) long-wavelength lithospheric folds striking NE and located between the Alpine front and the North Sea. The present-day geometry of the European crust comprises the signatures of these two events superimposed on all preceding ones. In order to better define the processes and causes of each event, we identify and separate their respective geometrical signatures on depth maps of the pre-Mesozoic basement and of the Moho. We derive the respective timing of rifting and folding from sedimentary accumulation curves computed for selected locations of the Upper Rhine Graben. From this geometrical and chronological separation, we infer that the ECRIS developed mostly from 37 to 17 Ma, in response to north-directed impingement of Adria into the European plate. Lithospheric folds developed between 17 and 0 Ma, after the azimuth of relative displacement between Adria and Europe turned counter-clockwise to NW–SE. The geometry of these folds (wavelength = 270 km; amplitude = 1,500 m) is consistent with the geometry, as predicted by analogue and numerical models, of buckle folds produced by horizontal shortening of the whole lithosphere. The development of the folds resulted in ca. 1,000 m of rock uplift along the hinge lines of the anticlines (Burgundy–Swabian Jura and Normandy–Vogelsberg) and ca. 500 m of rock subsidence along the hinge line of the intervening syncline (Sologne–Franconian Basin). The grabens of the ECRIS were tilted by the development of the folds, and their rift-related sedimentary infill was reduced on anticlines, while sedimentary accumulation was enhanced in synclines. We interpret the occurrence of Miocene volcanic activity and of topographic highs, and the basement and Moho configurations in the Vosges–Black Forest area and in the Rhenish Massif as interference patterns between linear lithospheric anticlines and linear grabens, rather than as signatures of asthenospheric plumes.

On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change

Natural Hazards - This study presents a new approach to assess storm surge risk from tropical cyclones under climate change by direct calculation of the local flood levels using a limited number of...