Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004–2013

Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth’s emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004–2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space–time window around (M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered on a so long testing period, seems already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST approach and RETIRA index) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to t-DASH.     

Sea,freshwater or saltpans? Foraging ecology of terns to assess mercury inputs in a wetland landscape: The Ebro Delta

The Ebro catchment, the largest river basin in Spain, includes various heavily industrialized areas. Among these is the Flix site, where a chemical plant has been operating since the beginning of the 20th century. This extended operational period, together with the construction of a dam next to the factory around 1960, resulted in the accumulation of large amounts of heavily polluted sediments in the adjacent riverbed, many of which are contaminated by mercury. Pollutants from Flix are carried downstream by the Ebro River to its delta. In order to assess the transfer of mercury to the complex river estuary ecosystem, we studied the ecology of the tern community living there as these birds segregate into a range of habitats. For this purpose, first we used stable isotope analysis (SIA) (δ³⁴S, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of eggs to determine the trophic ecology and habitat partitioning of several tern species (Common, Sandwich, Little, Gull-Billed and Whiskered Tern) breeding sympatrically, in order to link their foraging ecology with habitat types. Next we measured mercury concentrations in eggs to monitor the input of this metal into the diverse habitats. With the exception of the Little Tern, the other terns used a restricted habitat range in the Ebro Delta, as shown by C and S isotopes; the Gull-Billed and Whiskered Tern foraged in freshwater habitats, while the Common and Sandwich Tern used marine habitats. This restricted feeding behavior of the Gull-Billed and Common Tern contrasts with previous reports in other breeding sites. The Little Tern, which showed a wide range of isotopic values, was found to be an opportunistic forager but fed mainly in saltpans, a feeding habitat not reported previously for this species in this area. We found that mercury concentrations are related to foraging habitat and diet, and are unexpectedly higher in species feeding on demersal prey in marine habitats and also higher in birds feeding in saltpans than in those feeding in freshwater habitats. The mercury concentrations found in the Little and Common Tern eggs sampled in “Punta de la Banya” may be sufficiently high to endanger breeding success.     

Carbonaceous chondrites as analogs for the composition and alteration of Ceres

The mineralogy and geochemistry of Ceres, as constrained by Dawn's instruments, are broadly consistent with a carbonaceous chondrite (CM/CI) bulk composition. Differences explainable by Ceres’s more advanced alteration include the formation of Mg‐rich serpentine and ammoniated clay; a greater proportion of carbonate and lesser organic matter; amounts of magnetite, sulfide, and carbon that could act as spectral darkening agents; and partial fractionation of water ice and silicates in the interior and regolith. Ceres is not spectrally unique, but is similar to a few other C‐class asteroids, which may also have suffered extensive alteration. All these bodies are among the largest carbonaceous chondrite asteroids, and they orbit in the same part of the Main Belt. Thus, the degree of alteration is apparently related to the size of the body. Although the ammonia now incorporated into clay likely condensed in the outer nebula, we cannot presently determine whether Ceres itself formed in the outer solar system and migrated inward or was assembled within the Main Belt, along with other carbonaceous chondrite bodies.     

Making young children aware of the universe

Carolina Ödman makes the case for UNAWE, a means to share the inspiration and wonder of the universe and modern science with the very young. Some of them will become the talented scientists of the future; all of them should have wider horizons as adults.     

Summer precipitation variability over South America on long and short intraseasonal timescales

A dipole pattern in convection between the South Atlantic convergence zone and the subtropical plains of southeastern South America characterizes summer intraseasonal variability over the region. The dipole pattern presents two main bands of temporal variability, with periods between 10 and 30 days, and 30 and 90 days; each influenced by different large-scale dynamical forcings. The dipole activity on the 30–90-day band is related to an eastward traveling wavenumber-1 structure in both OLR and circulation anomalies in the tropics, similar to that associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation. The dipole is also related to a teleconnection pattern extended along the South Pacific between Australia and South America. Conversely, the dipole activity on the 10–30-day band does not seem to be associated with tropical convection anomalies. The corresponding circulation anomalies exhibit, in the extratropics, the structure of Rossby-like wave trains, although their sources are not completely clear.     

A concerted research effort to advance the hydrological understanding of tropical páramos

Páramos, a neotropical alpine grassland-peatland biome of the northern Andes and Central America, play an essential role in regional and global cycles of water, carbon, and nutrients. They act as water towers, delivering water and ecosystem services from the high mountains down to the Pacific, Caribbean, and Amazon regions. Páramos are also widely recognized as a biodiversity and climate change hot spots, yet they are threatened by anthropogenic activities and environmental changes. Despite their importance for water security and carbon storage, and their vulnerability to human activities, only three decades ago, páramos were severely understudied. Increasing awareness of the need for hydrological evidence to guide sustainable management of páramos prompted action for generating data and for filling long-standing knowledge gaps. This has led to a remarkably successful increase in scientific knowledge, induced by a strong interaction between the scientific, policy, and (local) management communities. A combination of well-established and innovative approaches has been applied to data collection, processing, and analysis. In this review, we provide a short overview of the historical development of research and state of knowledge of the hydrometeorology, flux dynamics, anthropogenic impacts, and the influence of extreme events in páramos. We then present emerging technologies for hydrology and water resources research and management applied to páramos. We discuss how converging science and policy efforts have leveraged traditional and new observational techniques to generate an evidence base that can support the sustainable management of páramos. We conclude that this co-evolution of science and policy was able to successfully cover different spatial and temporal scales. Lastly, we outline future research directions to showcase how sustainable long-term data collection can foster the responsible conservation of páramos water towers.     

Stratigraphy, Chronology, and Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction of the Quaternary Sedimentary Infilling of a Volcanic Tube in Fuerteventura, Canary Islands

La Cueva del Llano is a volcanic tube of Pleistocene age on Fuerteventura Island, in the Canary Islands. Part of it is infilled with sediments of external origin. These deposits are exceptional in stratigraphic complexity and thickness compared with other known tube infillings, and they comprise nine stratigraphic units deposited in five phases. In Phase I, which has not been dated, sedimentation of cinder from a nearby cone occurred. Phase II began ca. 16,830 ± 900 ¹⁴C yr B.P., whereas phase IV dates to 9280 ± 370 ¹⁴C yr B.P. The interpretation of sedimentary features shows that phases III and V correspond to a dry climate, similar to the present one, whereas the climate was much wetter during phases II and IV. This paleoclimatic sequence agrees with those suggested by the study of deposits formed in other sedimentary environments, not only in Fuerteventura but on other islands of the Canary group and the Sud-Maroc region.     

Late Quaternary climatic history of the Chilean Channels based on fossil pollen and beetle analyses,with an analysis of the modern vegetation and pollen rain

Fossil beetles and pollen were examined from an intermorainal bog at Puerto Edén, Isla Wellington, Chile (latitude 49°08'S, longitude 74°25'W). Wood from near the base of the section has an age of 12 960 ± 150 yr BP. Occurrence of flightless beetle species in the basal peat sample is evidence that some members of the biota survived the last glacial maximum in refugia. The assumption that the Chilean Channels were entirely ice-covered is incorrect. Plants and insects that invaded the deglaciated terrain were those of an Empetrum heathland in which patches of Nothofagus forest were restricted to sheltered locations. The climate supporting the heathland is inferred to have been windier and probably drier than that of the present day. From 13 000 yr BP to 9500 yr BP Nothofagus forest expanded, possibly in response to less windiness and more available moisture. Neither the fossil beetle nor pollen data support a return to significantly colder conditions between 11 000 and 10 000 yr BP at the time of the Younger Dryas Stade. From 9500 to 5500 yr BP the climate was as wet as that of the present day, based on an increased representation of the pollen of moorland plants and of aquatic beetle species. From 5500 to 3000 yr BP the climate was drier, as indicated by the expansion of Empetrum heath and the reduction in mesic habitats. From 3000 yr BP to the present-day mesic habitats dominated as the climate returned to a wetter mode. The alternatively wetter and drier episodes are attributed to latitudinal shifts in the position of storm tracks in the belt of Southern Westerlies.     

Adakitic Dacites Formed by Intracrustal Crystal Fractionation of Water-rich Parent Magmas at Nevado de Longavi Volcano (36{middle dot}2{degrees}S; Andean Southern Volcanic Zone, Central Chile)

The mid-Holocene eruptive products of Nevado de Longavívolcano (36·2°S, Chile) are the only reported occurrenceof adakitic volcanic rocks in the Quaternary Andean SouthernVolcanic Zone (33–46°S). Dacites of this volcano arechemically distinct from other evolved magmas of the regionin that they have high La/Yb (15–20) and Sr/Y (60–90)ratios and systematically lower incompatible element contents.An origin by partial melting of high-pressure crustal sourcesseems unlikely from isotopic and trace element considerations.Mafic enclaves quenched into one of the dacites, on the otherhand, constitute plausible parental magmas. Dacites and maficenclaves share several characteristics such as mineral chemistry,whole-rock isotope and trace element ratios, highly oxidizingconditions (NNO + 1·5 to >NNO + 2, where NNO is thenickel–nickel oxide buffer), and elevated boron contents.A two-stage mass-balance crystal fractionation model that matchesboth major and trace elements is proposed to explain magmaticevolution from the least evolved mafic enclave to the dacites.Amphibole is the main ferromagnesian phase in both stages ofthis model, in agreement with the mineralogy of the magmas.We also describe cumulate-textured xenoliths that correspondvery closely to the solid assemblages predicted by the model.We conclude that Nevado de Longaví adakitic dacites arethe products of polybaric fractional crystallization from exceptionallywater-rich parent magmas. These basaltic magmas are inferredto be related to an exceptionally high, but transient inputof slab-derived fluids released from serpentinite bodies hostedin the oceanic Mocha Fracture Zone, which projects beneath Nevadode Longaví. Fractional crystallization that is modallydominated by amphibole, with very minor garnet extraction, isa mechanism for generating adakitic magmas in cold subductionzones where a high flux of slab-derived fluids is present. KEY WORDS: adakite; amphibole; Andes; differentiation; Southern Volcanic Zone