AN EVALUATION OF SAS/GRAPH SOFTWARE FOR COMPUTER CARTOGRAPHY1

The SAS® computer software system, widely used and respected for its capabilities in statistical analysis and data base management, now includes a new set of graphic and cartographic procedures called SAS GRAPH?. We have used these cartographic procedures in research on mapping ethno-cultural census data from metropolitan areas in Ontario and in undergraduate and graduate courses in computer cartography. On the basis of that experience, we describe and evaluate SAS/GRAPH'S cartographic capabilities and illustrate with maps drawn by various devices.     

A simple shaker table for seismometer calibration

A unique and simple shaker table (shake table or shaking table), designed, constructed, and installed at the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, has proven to be a valuable aid in testing and calibrating short period seismometers, as well as ocean bottom and ocean sub-bottom seismometer/tilt meter packages. It consists of a platform suspended in a stairwell by a single elastic cord (10 m extended length) driven by GeoSpace HS-10 geophones. Platform motion is monitored by orthogonal reference geophones and tilt meters. The relatively low natural periods of the platform, about 1.9 sec vertical and 6.5 sec horizontal, provide sufficient isolation from local vibrations that calibration can be made near operational amplitudes. Vertical or horizontal driver geophones can be driven by a commercial signal generator or white noise generator, or from magnetic tape output. The table can also be tilted with respect to the drivers to determine tilt tolerances and to calibrate tilt meters. A Hewlett-Packard 3582-A spectrum analyzer, used to analyze both reference and output signals, provides near real-time system cabibration and is an efficient means for investigating parasitic system resonances. The analyzer can also provide a white noise signal source to the driver geophones.Hawaii Institute of Geophysics Contribution 1443.     

A note on the seafloor coupling characteristics of the new ONR ocean-bottom seismometer

A series of transient tests were conducted to determine the seafloor coupling characteristics of a new ocean-bottom seismometer (OBS) developed for the United States Office of Naval Research (ONR). The OBS comprises a large recording package and a separate sensor package that is deployed from the recording package. In addition to the coupling characteristics of both the sensor and the recording packages, the seismic energy radiated from the main recording package as a result of motion of the recording package was measured. The observed vertical coupling resonances of both the recording package and the sensor package are in good agreement with those predicted by a simple model of soil-structure interaction. The most important result of this study is that significant energy is radiated from the recording package in response to horizontal motions of the recording package. When the sensor package is 1 m from the recording package, the amplitude of the recorded signal is similar to that recorded in the recording package. In the field, this effect will result in distortion of seismic signals and increased background noise recorded by the sensor package if the recording package is disturbed by seafloor currents or biological activity. The amplitude of this signal attenuates by approximately a factor of two as sensor/recorder separation is increased from 1 to 6 m, suggesting that an improved response can be achieved by increasing the separation between the recording package and the sensors. This effect is much less severe for vertical disturbances of the recording package.     

Distribution of moderately volatile trace elements in fine-grained chondrule rims in the unequilibrated CO3 chondrite, ALH A77307

The concentrations of Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Ge, and Se in five, fine-grained chondrule rims in the highly unequilibrated CO3 chondrite ALH A77307 (3.0) have been determined for the first time by synchrotron X-ray fluorescence (SXRF) microprobe at Brookhaven National Laboratory. These elements are especially useful for tracing the role of condensation and evaporation processes which occurred at moderate temperatures in the solar nebula. Understanding the distribution of moderately volatile elements between matrix and chondrules is extremely important for evaluating the different models for the volatile depletions in chondritic meteorites. The data show that the trace element chemistry of rims on different chondrules is remarkably similar, consistent with data obtained for the major and minor elements by electron microprobe. These results support the idea that rims are not genetically related to individual chondrules, but all sampled the same reservoir of homogeneously mixed dust. Of the trace elements analyzed, Zn and Ga show depletions relative to CI chondrite values, but in comparison with bulk CO chondrites all the elements are enriched by approximately 1.5 to 3.5 x CO. The abundance patterns for moderately volatile elements in ALH A77307 chondrule rims closely mimic those observed in the bulk chondrite, indicating that matrix is the major reservoir for these elements. The close matching of the patterns for the volatile depleted bulk chondrite and enriched matrix is especially striking for Na, which is anomalously depleted in ALH A77307 in comparison with average CO chondrite abundances. The depletion in Na is probably attributable to the effects of leaching in Antarctica. With the exception of Na, the volatile elements show a relatively smooth decrease in abundance as a function of condensation temperature, indicating that their behavior is largely controlled by their volatility.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Mountain glaciers under a changing climate

Mountain glaciers are found around the world in ranges such as the Himalaya, the Andes and the European Alps. The majority of mountain glaciers world‐wide are shrinking. However, the rugged alpine topography through which these glaciers flow governs their dynamics and impacts on the regional climate systems that modify glacier mass balance. As a result, the response of mountain glaciers to climate change is difficult to predict, and highly spatially variable even across one mountain range, particularly where orography controls precipitation distributions. To understand how mountain glaciers behave and change, geologists combine many different techniques based on direct observations and dating of glacial geology, measurements of present‐day glaciers, and predictive numerical (computer) models. Recent advances in these techniques and their applications to glacial environments have demonstrated that the glacial geological record is a rich archive of information about how climate has changed in the past, and gives greater confidence in predictions of glacier change in the future, which is required if populations living in glacerised catchments are able to adapt to the rapid response of glaciers to a changing climate.     

Geology and tectonics of Neoproterozoic salt diapirs and salt sheets in the eastern Willouran Ranges,South Australia

Allochthonous salt structures and associated primary and secondary minibasins are exposed in Neoproterozoic strata of the eastern Willouran Ranges, South Australia. Detailed geologic mapping using high‐quality airborne hyperspectral remote‐sensing data and satellite imagery, combined with a qualitative structural restoration, are used to elucidate the evolution of this complex, long‐lived (>250 Myr) salt system. Field observations and interpretations at a resolution unobtainable from seismic or well data provide a means to test published models of allochthonous salt emplacement and associated salt‐sediment interaction derived from subsurface data in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Salt diapirs and sheets are represented by megabreccias of nonevaporite lithologies that were originally interbedded with evaporites that have been dissolved and/or altered. Passive diapirism began shortly after deposition of the Callanna Group layered evaporite sequence. A primary basin containing an expulsion‐rollover structure and megaflap is flanked by two vertical diapirs. Salt flowed laterally from the diapirs to form a complex, multi‐level canopy, now partly welded, containing an encapsulated minibasin and capped by suprasalt basins. Salt and minibasin geometries were modified during the Late Cambrian–Ordovician Delamerian Orogeny (ca. 500 Ma). Small‐scale structures such as subsalt shear zones, fractured or mixed ‘rubble zones’ and thrust imbricates are absent beneath allochthonous salt and welds in the eastern Willouran Ranges. Instead, either undeformed strata or halokinetic drape folds that include preserved diapir roof strata are found directly below the transition from steep diapirs to salt sheets. Allochthonous salt first broke through the diapir roofs and then flowed laterally, resulting in variable preservation of the subsalt drape folds. Lateral salt emplacement was presumably on roof‐edge thrusts or, because of the shallow depositional environment, via open‐toed advance or extrusive advance, but without associated subsalt deformation.     

Estimating environmentally relevant fixed nitrogen demand in the 21st century

Human activities affect the impact of the nitrogen cycle on both the environment and climate. The rate of anthropogenic nitrogen fixation from atmospheric N₂ may serve as an indicator to the magnitude of this impact, acknowledging that relationship to be effect-dependent and non-linear. Building on the set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios developed for climate change research, we estimate anthropogenic industrial nitrogen fixation throughout the 21st century. Assigning characteristic key drivers to the four underlying scenarios we arrive at nitrogen fixation rates for agricultural use of 80 to 172 Tg N/yr by 2100, which is slightly less to almost twice as much compared with the fixation rate for the year 2000. We use the following key drivers of change, varying between scenarios: population growth, consumption of animal protein, agricultural efficiency improvement and additional biofuel production. Further anthropogenic nitrogen fixation for production of materials such as explosives or plastics and from combustion are projected to remain considerably smaller than that related to agriculture. While variation among the four scenarios is considerable, our interpretation of scenarios constrains the option space: several of the factors enhancing the anthropogenic impact on the nitrogen cycle may occur concurrently, but never all of them. A scenario that is specifically targeted towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions ends up as the potentially largest contributor to nitrogen fixation, as a result of large amounts of biofuels required and the fertilizer used to produce it. Other published data on nitrogen fixation towards 2100 indicate that our high estimates based on the RCP approach are rather conservative. Even the most optimistic scenario estimates that nitrogen fixation rate will remain substantially in excess of an estimate of sustainable boundaries by 2100.     

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO₂, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO₂. Results indicate that SST and CO₂ change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO₂ change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO₂ and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO₂ change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.     

A data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach to understanding dynamic sediment transmission through Wyresdale Park Reservoir,Lancashire, UK

This paper outlines the application of a new data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling methodology to the characterization of the sediment transmission dynamics in a small upland reservoir, Wyresdale Park, Lancashire. The DBM modelling strategy exploits advanced statistical procedures to infer the dynamic model structure and its associated parameters directly from the instrumented data, producing a parametrically efficient, continuous time, transfer function model which relates suspended sediment load at the reservoir inflow to the outflow at the event scale. The associated differential equation model parameters have physical attributes which can be interpreted in terms of sediment transmission processes and associated reservoir trap efficiency. Sedigraph analysis suggests that wind‐induced resuspension episodically supplies an additional load to the reservoir outlet. The stochastic nature of the DBM model makes it ideal for evaluating the effects of uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) for discharge and sediment transmission. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.