季风低压诱发2018年8月广东特大暴雨过程分析

利用NCEP/FNL再分析资料和中尺度数值模拟方法探讨2018年8月27日—9月1日季风低压环境下广东特大暴雨过程的形成成因。利用扰动天气图方法分析发现,季风低压和西南急流为此次广东暴雨过程提供了有利的水汽条件和能量条件。熵变零线位置与降水落区位置有较好的对应,零线处能量有最大累积,有利于暴雨的发生发展,对预报暴雨降水落区有一定的指示意义。为进一步验证季风低压的影响机制,构建不同季风低压尺度的敏感性试验,即通过滤去季风低压环流中的扰动分量来改变季风低压的强度。结果表明：暴雨强度与季风低压尺度和强度存在密切的关系。当季风低压强度较强时,暴雨过程总雨量强;当季风低压强度较弱时,降水大为减少甚至无降水。诊断分析指出,能量螺旋度指数能够较好反映出不同情形下降水发生发展,在季风低压背景下,暴雨区能量螺旋度指数较大,降水强度较强。反之,随着季风低压强度减弱,能量螺旋度指数减小,降水减弱。     

井筒冻结孔解冻涌水发生机制及其控制技术

针对冻结井筒解冻后频繁发生涌水灾害的情况,通过工程实例分析了冻结技术、井筒地层条件及解冻涌水特征。结果表明,涌水发生是由于解冻后冻结止水帷幕失效,冻结管周围地层介质渗透性增强,介质接触界面粘结强度降低而致界面缝隙扩大连通,使冻结钻孔连通含、隔水层而形成竖向导水通道,通道内高压水通过井筒薄弱部位发生涌水。采取在井筒外围适宜地层开挖环形巷道,在环形巷道内逐个切断冻结管并向冻结管内外注浆加固,最后将环形巷道用混凝土回填,形成人工隔水塞层。利用RFPA^2D-Flow渗流耦合模型验证了该治理方案的可行性,且利用FLAC^3D程序计算出环形巷道距离井壁7.50 m是最佳开凿位置。经该措施处理后的井筒涌水由原来的90 m³/h降低至2 m³/h,且井筒保持了稳定。     

热带海水温度多时间尺度变化特征分析

利用高时间分辨率热带海洋浮标站点观测资料,分析热带区域海水温度多时间尺度变化特征,研究海水温度的日变化、季节变化和季节内变化。结果表明:热带海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)具有不对称性的日变化特征。SST日较差与天气状况关系密切。有降水日的SST日平均值和幅度均低于无降水日,其不对称性具有区域性差异。在不同ENSO位相年份下的SST日平均值和振幅变化具有区域性,太平洋西部(Western Pacific,WP)的平均值和振幅差距较小,太平洋东部(Eastern Pacific,EP)和印度洋(Indian Ocean,IO)区域在El Niňo年的日平均值和振幅均大于La Niňa年。SST随季节变化具有区域性特征,WP区域SST的日平均温度和振幅在秋季最大,冬季最小;而EP和IO区域的日平均温度和振幅在春季最大,夏季最小。且SST日变化幅度随季节变化显著,主要受太阳短波辐射、降水和风速随季节变化的调制。此外,在季节内振荡时间尺度上,海水温度在200 m深度内随时间呈周期性变化,海水温度出现最大变率的中心位于100～150 m的深度范围内。不同区域由于温跃层深度不同,最大变率位置也有所差别。对海水温度变化特征分析可以为海—气耦合模式提供观测依据,以便准确地评估模式对海水温度的模拟效果。     

ENSO evolution asymmetry: EP versus CP El Niño

Through an oceanic mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the dominant processes contributing to the largest decay rate (− 0.37 °C/mon) in EP El Nino, the moderate delay rate (− 0.22 °C/mon) in CP El Nino and the smallest decay rate (0.13 °C/mon) in La Nina, are identified. The result shows that both dynamic (wind induced equatorial ocean waves and thermocline changes) and thermodynamic (net surface solar radiation and latent heat flux changes) processes contribute to a fast decay and thus phase transition in EP El Niño composite, whereas the thermodynamic process has less effect on the decay rate for both CP El Niño and La Niña due to the westward shift of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centers. Thus, the difference in surface wind stress forcing is critical in contributing to evolution asymmetry between CP El Niño and La Niña, while the difference in both the wind stress and heat flux anomalies contribute to evolution asymmetry between EP El Niño and La Niña. It is interesting to note that El Nino induced anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific is stronger and shifts more toward the east during EP El Niño than during CP El Niño, while compared to CP El Niño, the center of an anomalous cyclone during La Niña shifts further to the west. As a consequence, both EP and CP El Niño decay fast and transform into a La Niña episode in the subsequent year, whereas La Niña has a much slower decay rate and re-develops in the second year.

     

Projected climate change impacts on spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions within the Kailash Sacred Landscape of China,India, Nepal

Rapidly accelerating climate change in the Himalaya is projected to have major implications for montane species, ecosystems, and mountain farming and pastoral systems. A geospatial modeling approach based on a global environmental stratification is used to explore potential impacts of projected climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic strata and ecoregions within the transboundary Kailash Sacred Landscape (KSL) of China, India and Nepal. Twenty-eight strata, comprising seven bioclimatic zones, were aggregated to develop an ecoregional classification of 12 ecoregions (generally defined by their potential dominant vegetation type), based upon vegetation and landcover characteristics. Projected climate change impacts were modeled by reconstructing the stratification based upon an ensemble of 19 Earth System Models (CIMP5) across four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission scenarios (i.e. 63 impact simulations), and identifying the change in spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Large and substantial shifts in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the KSL area by the year 2050, within all bioclimatic zones and ecoregions. Over 76 % of the total area may shift to a different stratum, 55 % to a different bioclimatic zone, and 36.6 % to a different ecoregion. Potential impacts include upward shift in mean elevation of bioclimatic zones (357 m) and ecoregions (371 m), decreases in area of the highest elevation zones and ecoregions, large expansion of the lower tropical and sub-tropical zones and ecoregions, and the disappearance of several strata representing unique bioclimatic conditions within the KSL, with potentially high levels of biotic perturbance by 2050, and a high likelihood of major consequences for biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, conservation efforts and sustainable development policies in the region.     

粒子加速器中高精度丝线绝对位置测量技术研究

粒子加速器中采用振动线技术进行共架单元上多块磁铁的高精度预准直,需要将振动线代表的磁中心引出进行共架单元之间的相对准直。为了获取以振动线为代表的丝线高精度空间绝对位置,本文对采用近景摄影测量技术进行点、线位置求解的方法进行了研究。利用单相机多站位的方法进行拍摄,通过标定板提供的高精度控制点坐标,采用自标定光束法平差对相机进行标定,并提出将空间直线离散成空间2点进行直线整体精确求解。对标定板上由2点组成的模拟直线进行测量验证,并与标定板提供的理论值进行对比,结果显示空间直线位置获取精度优于5 μm。这表明了本文理论和方法的正确性,为进一步研究丝线高精度空间绝对位置测量打下了基础。     

立井工作面承压水流沙层保浆旋喷注浆帷幕支护技术

为解决立井工作面掘进中通过承压水流沙层的技术难题,提出了一种带压保浆旋喷注浆工艺,并进行了有关配套机具的研究。实施立井工作面承压水流沙层旋喷帷幕支护工程设计与施工,得到了承压水流沙层条件下采用带压保浆方法进行旋喷桩施工的单桩成桩工艺参数及固结体材料强度等重要数据,工程效果显示,该技术施工的旋喷桩桩体强度较高,使井筒掘进顺利通过承压水流沙层。     

东海冲绳海槽深海鱼类报告

冲绳海槽位于东海大陆架浅水区的外缘,是一北东一南西向延伸,在东南方向呈弧形突出的海槽。其北部水深在500-1000米间,南部最深达2000余米。1978年6,7月间我所“金星”号调查船在这一深水区及其附近进行了海洋综合考查。在进行底栖生物拖网时,获得一些深海鱼类标本。本文共报道深海鱼类14种,隶14属,12科,9目。