Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections

As reported in former studies, temperature observations obtained by expendable bathythermographs (XBTs) and mechanical bathythermographs (MBTs) appear to have positive biases as much as they affect major climate signals. These biases have not been fully taken into account in previous ocean temperature analyses, which have been widely used to detect global warming signals in the oceans. This report proposes a methodology for directly eliminating the biases from the XBT and MBT observations. In the case of XBT observation, assuming that the positive temperature biases mainly originate from greater depths given by conventional XBT fall-rate equations than the truth, a depth bias equation is constructed by fitting depth differences between XBT data and more accurate oceanographic observations to a linear equation of elapsed time. Such depth bias equations are introduced separately for each year and for each probe type. Uncertainty in the gradient of the linear equation is evaluated using a non-parametric test. The typical depth bias is +10 m at 700 m depth on average, which is probably caused by various indeterminable sources of error in the XBT observations as well as a lack of representativeness in the fall-rate equations adopted so far. Depth biases in MBT are fitted to quadratic equations of depth in a similar manner to the XBT method. Correcting the historical XBT and MBT depth biases by these equations allows a historical ocean temperature analysis to be conducted. In comparison with the previous temperature analysis, large differences are found in the present analysis as follows: the duration of large ocean heat content in the 1970s shortens dramatically, and recent ocean cooling becomes insignificant. The result is also in better agreement with tide gauge observations. On leave from the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency.     

Ag-rich Tetrahedrite in the El Zancudo Deposit,Colombia: Occurrence,Chemical Compositions and Genetic Temperatures

Chemical compositions of tetrahedrite—Ag-rich tetrahedrite—freibergite solid solutions (Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss) and homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in quartz and carbonates of seventeen samples from nine veins in the El Zancudo deposit, Antioquia, Colombia, were investigated to reveal the origin of silver in Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss, to derive their crystallization temperatures and to examine the relationship between chemical compositions of Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss and their crystallization temperatures. The ores consist of arsenopyrite, pyrite, sphalerite, Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss, galena, boulangerite, andorite, owyheeite, diaphorite, jamesonite, miargyrite, bournonite, chalcopyrite, and electrum. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss forms about 10 volume % of the total ores and is one of the most common and widely distributed sulfosalts in this deposit. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss is rich in Ag (1.13 to 31.02 wt%) and Sb (22.93 to 29.82 wt%), and poor in As (0.06 to 2.43 wt%), consistent with the reported incompatibilities of Ag and As in Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss. The Zn/(Zn + Fe)-, Ag/(Ag + Cu)- and Sb/(Sb + As + Bi)-atomic ratios exhibit some variations among the veins. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss with higher Ag/(Ag + Cu) ratios coexist with diaphorite, whereas those with lower ratios are not associated with this sulfosalt. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss in the assemblages of Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss+ sphalerite and of Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss+ bournonite + galena shows no Zn ↔ Fe and Cu ↔ Ag variations between core and rim, respectively, negating the possibility of solid state reaction during cooling. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss is thus regarded as primary phase. Homogenization temperatures of primary fluid inclusions in quartz and carbonates co-existing with Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss define the mineralization temperatures of 134 to 263°C. Independent crystallization temperatures of Ag-rich tetrahedrite estimated based on Zn/(Zn + Fe) and Ag/(Ag + Cu) ratios of the Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss associated with silver minerals such as miargyrite, andorite and diaphorite using Sack's thermochemical database lie in a range between 170 and ∼250°C. Both results are thus in good agreement.     

赤道不稳定波对海气相互作用影响的数值模拟分析

赤道不稳定波 (tropical instability waves) 存在于热带东太平洋赤道附近, 通常于每年的春末夏初出现, 以约0.6 m/s速度向西传播, 波周期为20～40天左右, 波长约为1000～2000 km.本文利用一个全球高分辨率海气耦合模式对赤道不稳定波在赤道附近的热量输送进行分析, 表明赤道不稳定波产生指向赤道的热通量, 从而部分抵消了热带东太平洋地区由Ekman辐散和温度平流导致的强冷却效应, 维持热带地区的热量平衡.其对赤道冷舌区的增暖作用可以消除和减弱气候模式中热带东太平洋地区的系统性冷偏差, 能使冷舌的强度和分布得到合理的改善, 对气候模式的改进和发展具有潜在贡献.赤道不稳定波还可以改变赤道海洋上空低层大气层结稳定度, 导致近地层强的风场辐合辐散, 并进一步影响大气混合层的温度、 风场等气象要素.模拟分析结果还表明, 赤道不稳定波对大气强迫产生二次响应, 改变赤道上空逆温层的垂直位移和逆温强度.研究赤道不稳定波对热带海洋气候及其海气相互作用机理的理解具有重要意义.     

The distribution of Fe3+ and Ga3+ between two tetrahedral sites in melilites,Ca2(Mg,Fe3+, Ga,Si)3O7

The distribution of Fe³⁺ and Ga³⁺ between the two tetrahedral sites in three synthetic melilites has been studied by using ⁵⁷Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. In the melilite, (Ca₂Ga₂SiO₇)₅₀ (Ca₂Fe³⁺GaSiO₇)₅₀ (mol %), the distribution of Fe³⁺ and Ga³⁺ in T1 and T2 sites is apparently random, which can be explained in terms of the electrostatic valence rule. However in the melilites, (Ca₂MgSi₂O₇)₅₂ (Ca₂Fe³⁺GaSiO₇)₄₂ (Ca₂Ga₂SiO₇)₆ and (Ca₂MgSi₂O₇)₆₂ (Ca₂Fe³⁺GaSiO₇)₃₆ (Ca₂Ga₂SiO₇)₂ (mol %), Fe³⁺ shows preference for the more ionic T1 site and Ga³⁺ for the more covalent T2 site. If the electronegativity of Ga³⁺ is assumed to be larger than that of Fe³⁺, the mode of distribution of Fe³⁺ and Ga³⁺ can be explained in terms of our previous hypothesis that a large electronegativity induces a stronger preference for the more covalent T2 site.     

A Simulating Experiment in the Process of Soil Erosion on Bare Land in Mt. Tanakami

In order to understand the process of surface erosion and acquire basic data of conditions on hillslope without vege tation, a sprinkling experiment is conducted on a bare slope in Mt. Tanakami in the central part of Japan. Based on the mea surements of runoff, mean soil erosion depth, and sediment yield, etc. , the results suggest the following characteristics in the process of surface erosion in the experimental area. (1) The occurrence of sediment discharge is interrupted; (2) Surface runoff is a saturated overland flow; (3) The mean soil erosion depth is thick compared with other areas in Mt. Tanakami;(4) Sediment discharge process is detachment- limited.     

Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study

We have conducted a multi-model intercomparison of cloud-water in five state-of-the-art AGCMs run for control and doubled carbon dioxide climates. The most notable feature of the differences between the control and doubled carbon dioxide climates is in the distribution of cloud-water in the mixed-phase temperature band. The difference is greatest at mid and high latitudes. We found that the amount of cloud ice in the mixed phase layer in the control climate largely determines how much the cloud-water distribution changes for the doubled carbon dioxide climate. Therefore evaluation of the cloud ice distribution by comparison with data is important for future climate sensitivity studies. Cloud ice and cloud liquid both decrease in the layer below the melting layer, but only cloud liquid increases in the mixed-phase layer. Although the decrease in cloud-water below the melting layer occurs at all latitudes, the increase in cloud liquid in the mixed-phase layer is restricted to those latitudes where there is a large amount of cloud ice in the mixed-phase layer. If the cloud ice in the mixed-phase layer is concentrated at high latitudes, doubling of carbon dioxide might shift the center of cloud water distribution poleward which could decrease solar reflection because solar insolation is less at higher latitude. The magnitude of this poleward shift of cloud water appears to be larger for the higher climate sensitivity models, and it is consistent with the associated changes in cloud albedo forcing. For the control climate there is a clear relationship between the differences in cloud-water and relative humidity between the different models, for both magnitude and distribution. On the other hand the ratio of cloud ice to cloud-water follows the threshold temperature which is determined in each model. Improved measurements of relative humidity could be used to constrain the modeled representation of cloud water. At the same time, comparative analysis in global cloud resolving model simulations is necessary for further understanding of the relationships suggested in this paper.     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.